Kadima Party vote likely to give Israel new prime minister

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- More than 70,000 members of Israel's ruling Kadima Party Wednesday will choose a new leader for the party and potentially a new prime minister.

Recent polls indicate an almost-assured victory for Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

Her main competitor, former Israeli military chief Shaul Mofaz, has dismissed the polls, one of which shows him losing to Livni by nearly 20 percentage points. Mofaz, who is Israel's Transportation Minister, has predicted that he will succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as Kadima party leader, albeit by a slim margin.

If none of the candidates secure at least 40 percent of the votes, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held a week later.

Olmert, who has been fighting corruption charges on the one hand and trying to negotiate a new peace deal with the Palestinians on the other, has vowed to formally resign as prime minister after Kadima chooses a new party leader. He will stay on as a caretaker prime minister until the new Kadima leader forms a government.

Kadima's new leader must hold together a fragile coalition government or face new elections that could see another party leader elected as Olmert's successor. There are many possible scenarios that could take place in the next few months.

Ehud Barak -- leader of the Labor Party, which holds the most parliamentary seats among Kadima's coalition partners -- could pull out of the coalition. That could force early elections or force the government to take on new coalition partners who could restrict the Kadima party leader's ability to negotiate with the Palestinians.

If elections are called, Barak, a former prime minister, could vie for the top spot, but polls show he may not have enough support.

Some observers think former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, head of the opposition Likud Party, could steal the show.

Whoever succeeds Olmert will be handed a set of daunting challenges, including determining the fate of Israel's talks with the Palestinians, its fledgling indirect talks with Syria and its tough talk on Iran's nuclear aspirations.

Livni, who is more widely known outside Israel than her main challenger, is the chief Israeli negotiator with the Palestinian Authority as the two sides work toward a peace deal.

She refuses to be tied to the Bush administration's vision of a peace deal by the end of this year.

"We want to reach an agreement which at the end of the agreement we can find the words 'end of conflict,' " she said. "And in doing so, it takes time."

To her supporters, she is squeaky-clean and a welcome change to Olmert, whose resignation comes amid mounting corruption charges.

"She's very honest, very sincere and I hope she's going to do whatever she says," one of her supporters said. "We have to give her a chance and I'm willing to do it."

Although she is the front-runner in the primaries in Israeli polls, those polls are not always accurate.

Mofaz is hoping for a repeat of the 2005 Labor party primary, in which polls indicated Shimon Peres would beat his main challenger Amir Peretz by 20 percentage points. But in the end, Peretz managed to win by a slim margin -- a victory credited to his push to get his supporters to the voting booths.

Mofaz has said it is the people, and not the polls, who decide. He has organized buses to get his supporters to the polling booths on Wednesday.

Mofaz said he is in a better position to lead Israel because of his background in security issues as a former Defense Minister and head of the Israel Defense Forces.

"I want to say 'yes' to our ability to give security to the people of Israel. I want to say 'yes' to our ability to continue with the diplomatic process, to get peace with our neighbors," he said.

Although he's trailing in the polls, Mofaz has vowed to form a government within two months if elected as Kadima's leader.

His supporters are highlighting his decades of experience, compared to Livni, who they say is untested.

"He is the person with the cool head, the steadfastness and the ability to take the most difficult decisions under pressure," according to Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Zeev Boim.

But some analysts have said neither candidate is up to the task of forming a new government.

The differences between the two candidates amount to not much more than "personal talents," according to Sever Plocker, a columnist for Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonoth.

"If you ask Minister Tzipi Livni what time it is, she will say, 'Following a comprehensive review of Israel's position in relation to global time zones: I have a clear stance on this subject, but I won't reveal it in the media,' " Plocker wrote in his column on Tuesday.

"If you ask Minister Shaul Mofaz what time it is, he will immediately reply: 'A quarter past three.' It is likely that if you take a look at your watch, you will notice that the time is in fact a quarter to four. When you'll tell this to Mofaz, he will immediately correct himself: 'A quarter to four will be here soon,' he'll say.

"So what's better, Livni's vague complexity or Mofaz's shifting decisiveness?" Plocker wrote. "On Wednesday we'll find out the verdict of Kadima's registered voters."

CNN's Paula Hancocks in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

All About Israel • Tzipi Livni • Shaul Mofaz