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Analysis: U.S. stuck between support and concern in the Middle East

By Elise Labott, CNN's Senior State Department Producer
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Secretary of State Clinton warned Arab leaders not to ignore their people
  • Now the U.S. is caught between popular aspirations for freedom and regimes it has relied on
  • The United States was caught off guard in Tunisia
  • Turmoil in Egypt could become a national security issue for the United States

Washington (CNN) -- Two weeks ago in Qatar, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Arab leaders that if they failed to address the desperation, poverty and lack of political freedoms in their countries and build a better future for their people, their regimes would sink into the sand.

Now, across the region, Arab populations are beginning to voice social and economic frustrations and assert their democratic rights. It puts the United States in the unenviable position of wanting and needing to support those yearnings at the same time the regimes they have long relied on for security in the region are the targets.

The United States was completely caught off guard and largely absent from the scene in Tunisia. The State Department expressed some early concern about the free flow of information and the Tunisian goverment's crackdown on the protesters, urging respect for their right to freedom of expression. But it didn't voice strong support for the protesters aspirations until President Ben Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali had already fled the country. In a carefully crafted statement, Clinton urged the caretaker government to respect the rights of the people assembling in the streets and to heed their call for political, social and economic reform.

Egyptians, emboldened by the success of their Tunisian brothers, followed on the streets of Cairo Tuesday to protest the corruption and failed economic policies of President Hosni Mubarak.

Once again, Clinton measured her words Tuesday morning. But she offered at least tepid support of the Egyptian government, calling it "stable" and "looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people."

While the chances of an overnight "revolution," is far less likely in Egypt than in Tunisia, the consequences for the United States would be far more dire should that happen in Egypt.

Ben Ali provided significant cooperation to the United States in its campaign against terrorism, but his ouster is relatively inconsequential to U.S. national security interests. Mubarak, however, is a key U.S. ally whose help is critical in maintaining security in the region on every issue from helping to forge peace between Israelis and Palestinians to continuing to keep pressure on Iran to stabilizing Lebanon and Iraq.

His continued failure to heed the calls of his people could ultimately become a national security issue for the United States.

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RELATED TOPICS
  • Tunisia
  • Egypt
  • World Politics

Today the United States has less control over events in the Middle East than ever before. At last weekend's talks in Istanbul, Iran showed the United States and its allies it remains defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions. Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah, supported by Syria and Iran, brought down the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job.

And neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians seem willing to give an inch to restart peace talks anytime soon, effectively leaving the peace process in neutral.

This troubled region has always looked to the United States to help in times of crisis. Now countries like Turkey and Qatar, whose interests don't always align with Washington's, are front and center.

While its influence on these big-ticket issues in the region is declining, the United States has redoubled efforts to tackle their root causes, such as poverty, hunger and disenfranchisement of women: some of the same ills that prompted Tunisians to take to the streets, with publics in the neighborhood nipping at their heels.

Clinton told Arab leaders in Qatar that the United States stood ready to assist them in addressing the needs of their people. What she didn't say is that once they start to sink into the sand, the United States may be powerless to help.