Skip to main content

A game changer for Syria?

By Randa Slim, Special to CNN
April 20, 2012 -- Updated 1211 GMT (2011 HKT)
An anti-Syria government protester with a pre-Baath Syrian flag, which has been adopted by the opposition movement.
An anti-Syria government protester with a pre-Baath Syrian flag, which has been adopted by the opposition movement.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Randa Slim: The peace plan for Syria proposed by Kofi Annan is doomed to fail
  • Slim: After more than a year of uprisings, Syria is still stuck in a violent stalemate
  • She says one possible game changer is if the protests in Syria become more widespread
  • Slim: Members in local councils are Syria's best hope for future leadership

Editor's note: Randa Slim is a scholar at the Middle East Institute and a research fellow at the New America Foundation. Follow her on Twitter.

(CNN) -- The six-point peace plan for Syria proposed by Kofi Annan is doomed to fail for one simple reason: Neither President Bashar al-Assad nor the government opposition is interested in making it work.

For al-Assad, full implementation of the plan, which includes a political settlement through dialogue and respect for the rights of citizens to demonstrate peacefully, will bring an end to his regime. From the onset of the uprisings, his government knew that a repeat of the protests in Egypt's Tahrir Square or Bahrain's Pearl Square in Damascus or Aleppo will mean regime change. Al-Assad and his inner circle are not about to create conditions that are conducive for such sit-ins just because the Annan plan calls on them to do so.

For the opposition groups, Annan could spend all the time he wants on negotiations, but any talks not predicated on al-Assad's stepping aside will not be acceptable. The activists who are spearheading Syria's revolution insist that the opposition exile leadership has a limited mandate and that is to discuss details for the transfer of power from the Assad family to the opposition.

Randa Slim
Randa Slim

The bottom line is that the two main protagonists in the conflict look at the Annan plan as a means to achieve their respective, mutually exclusive objectives.

By agreeing to the Annan plan, al-Assad pursues a dual-track strategy: He appeases his Russian and Iranian allies, who have been pressuring him to accept a political solution, while working to kill his way out of the crisis under the pretext that he is confronting "armed terrorists and gangs."

The opposition wants the cease-fire in order to field mass protests. As one activist from Hama put it to me recently: "We don't need military intervention, we don't need humanitarian corridors, we don't need safe areas. Enforce the cease-fire and millions will march toward the presidential palace demanding Assad's ouster."

After more than a year of uprisings, Syria is still stuck in a violent stalemate. Al-Assad has not been able to crush the opposition, and opposition seems nowhere near to dislodging al-Assad. Increasingly, the conflict is being framed in existential terms, with some involved becoming more radicalized.

The majority of Alawites believe their physical survival is at stake, because they are convinced al-Assad's demise will engender wide-scale revenge killings on them. Hence, they will not accept a solution that will produce a new regime in which they are not guaranteed a leading role. Similarly, the opposition groups believe that if they stop now and al-Assad remains in power, he will hunt them down.

Absent a game changer that will tip the balance in favor of one side or the other, the crisis in Syria will become a full-blown sectarian war pitting Sunnis against Alawites, which will likely spill over into the neighboring countries of Iraq and Lebanon.

Although military options have been considered by the West, it's hard to say whether that would make a difference in reversing the dynamics in the country. A military operation might cause a regional war involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, with each country supporting its allies in Syria.

For now, Iran's Supreme Leader has cast his support firmly with al-Assad. A well-informed Iranian source told me that the Iranian regime will support al-Assad no matter what until the end. On the other hand, Russia's Syria policy seems to be in flux judging by its vote in the United Nations recently. It's too early to tell whether Russia will ease al-Assad out the way Saudi Arabia did in the case of Yemen's Abdullah Saleh. Russia and Iran will probably not abandon al-Assad until they are part of the deal-making process about Syria's future government.

One possible game changer is if the protest movement in Syria becomes widespread and covers large stretches of the country.

To date, only four of Syria's 14 governorates constitute the major hubs of the protest movement: Homs, Hama, Idlib and Daraa. While we have seen protests in other regions, they have not been as sustained and extensive as those in the four governorates. This is partly due to the state of fragmentation in the opposition ranks, especially among the exile groups, which do not inspire confidence among fence-sitters.

Although large segments of fence-sitters including businessmen have come around to supporting the opposition, many remain ambivalent because they doubt the opposition will succeed in overthrowing al-Assad. This perception is reinforced by the fact that Annan's plan does not call for al-Assad to step down -- a detail that is not missed by the Assad regime propaganda machine.

While the exile opposition remains divided, there are hopeful signs that the opposition ranks within Syria are becoming better organized, better trained and gaining legitimacy.

The future leaders of Syria will not come from the Syrian National Council or the National Coordination Committee for Change; they will emerge from the ranks of the revolutionary councils that are forming in different parts of the country.

These councils bring together an eclectic mix of the most active local coordinating committees, independent activists, community and business leaders and military defectors. They are putting in place an administrative infrastructure that is akin to a local provincial council, handling everything from media affairs to helping families who lost their homes to providing legal aid to jailed activists. They are also coordinating with each other to protect relief supply lines that cross their respective territories. In the process, the leaders in these councils, who hail from Syria's different religious and ethnic groups, are developing political skills, cultivating local constituencies and learning through trial and error the business of governing.

In a country that is increasingly polarized along sectarian and ethnic lines, these councils can perhaps provide the glue that keeps the country stitched together.

Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion

Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Randa Slim.

ADVERTISEMENT
Part of complete coverage on
October 30, 2014 -- Updated 1539 GMT (2339 HKT)
Mike Downey says the Giants and the Royals both lived through long title droughts. What teams are waiting for a win?
October 30, 2014 -- Updated 1832 GMT (0232 HKT)
Mel Robbins says if a man wants to talk to a woman on the street, he should follow 3 basic rules.
October 29, 2014 -- Updated 2103 GMT (0503 HKT)
Peter Bergen and David Sterman say more terrorism plots are disrupted by families than by NSA surveillance.
October 29, 2014 -- Updated 2125 GMT (0525 HKT)
Time magazine has clearly kicked up a hornet's nest with its downright insulting cover headlined "Rotten Apples," says Donna Brazile.
October 29, 2014 -- Updated 2055 GMT (0455 HKT)
Leroy Chiao says the failure of the launch is painful but won't stop the trend toward commercializing space.
October 29, 2014 -- Updated 1145 GMT (1945 HKT)
Timothy Stanley: Though Jeb Bush has something to offer, another Bush-Clinton race would be a step backward.
October 28, 2014 -- Updated 1237 GMT (2037 HKT)
Errol Louis says forced to choose between narrow political advantage and the public good, the governors showed they are willing to take the easy way out over Ebola.
October 27, 2014 -- Updated 1803 GMT (0203 HKT)
Eric Liu says with our family and friends and neighbors, each one of us must decide what kind of civilization we expect in the United States. It's our responsibility to set tone and standards, with our laws and norms
October 27, 2014 -- Updated 1145 GMT (1945 HKT)
Sally Kohn says the UNC report highlights how some colleges exploit student athletes while offering little in return
October 26, 2014 -- Updated 1904 GMT (0304 HKT)
Terrorists don't represent Islam, but Muslims must step up efforts to counter some of the bigotry within the world of Islam, says Fareed Zakaria
October 24, 2014 -- Updated 1302 GMT (2102 HKT)
Scott Yates says extending Daylight Saving Time could save energy, reduce heart attacks and get you more sleep
October 27, 2014 -- Updated 0032 GMT (0832 HKT)
Reza Aslan says the interplay between beliefs and actions is a lot more complicated than critics of Islam portray
October 27, 2014 -- Updated 1119 GMT (1919 HKT)
Julian Zelizer says control of the Senate will be decided by a few close contests
October 24, 2014 -- Updated 1212 GMT (2012 HKT)
The response of some U.S. institutions that should know better to Ebola has been anything but inspiring, writes Idris Ayodeji Bello.
October 21, 2014 -- Updated 1312 GMT (2112 HKT)
Sigrid Fry-Revere says the National Organ Transplant Act has caused more Americans to die waiting for an organ than died in both World Wars, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq
ADVERTISEMENT