Skip to main content

Spain's next crisis: Regional splits?

By Oliver Joy, CNN
September 28, 2012 -- Updated 1107 GMT (1907 HKT)
People hold pro-independence Catalan flags in a demonstration calling for independence.
People hold pro-independence Catalan flags in a demonstration calling for independence.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Catalonia has requested a 5 billion euro ($6.3 billion) bailout from the Spanish government
  • Galicia and Catalonia will hold regional elections in October and November respectively
  • Investors are wary that Spain could soon need financial support from European bailout funds

London (CNN) -- Spain faces a test of unity over the coming months as regional elections in Catalonia and Galicia threaten to destabilize the debt-ridden nation.

With unemployment at a record 25%, borrowing costs spiraling and debt repayments looming, Spain is emerging as the possible next candidate to tap its eurozone peers for financial help.

But Spain stands apart from other nations forced to seek aid. As the eurozone's fourth largest economy -- making up around 11% of the currency bloc's gross domestic product -- its financial problems are now being exacerbated by defiance from some of its 17 disparate regions.

Catalonia, a semi-autonomous region in the Northeast, represents one fifth of Spain's economy and the protestors are now actively calling for a split from central government.

Spain struggles to deal with austerity
Austerity leads to health cuts in Spain
Spaniards protest austerity plans

Such agitations -- coming as they are in the midst of the country's debt crisis -- threaten to undermine Rajoy's attempts to pull Spain from its financial mire.

Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy told CNN that the sub sovereign debt problems are a "hot button issue."

For Rajoy, the push back "accentuates [the problems], making it more likely Spain will be forced to call on the European Stability Mechanism [Europe's permanent bailout fund]," Spiro said.

But Antonio Barroso, a Europe analyst at Eurasia Group, told CNN that despite the protests the likelihood of a Catalan separation is "extremely low."

According to Barroso, the ruling political party in Catalonia, Convergence and Union (CiU) led by Catalan President Artur Mas, has used the eurozone debt crisis and regional elections set for November 25 to openly call for sovereignty.

Barroso said: "It is true that public support for independence has been on the rise. But the Catalan government is implementing very tough financial adjustments and therefore the [Catalan] President, Artur Mas, is capitalizing on nationalist sentiments to shift the burden of responsibility onto the central government."

Last week Mas met with the Rajoy in Madrid to try and negotiate a new fiscal arrangement, whereby Catalonia would manage its own taxes and transfer less money to other regions in Spain. But talks stalled.

Even as Catalonia -- with its own language and culture -- strives for autonomy, in August, the CiU requested a 5 billion euro ($6.3 billion) bailout from the Spanish government. The request came after Rajoy announced plans for a credit line to be extended to Spain's 17 regions.

But, according to Barroso, Catalonia is not Rajoy's main concern. Instead Spain's leader is focusing on regional elections in Galicia in October -- a region in North-western Spain -- where his party is likely to win and where the policies could create a model for the rest of Spain.

Barroso said: "The key area for Rajoy is Galicia because his party has an absolute majority. He wants to use Galicia as an example of how his policies are working because it is one of the healthiest region in fiscal terms."

Spain has already requested up to a 100 billion euro ($128 billion) aid package for its ailing banks, which are still struggling to grapple with the property collapse in 2008.

Pressure from European partners and investor fear over further credit downgrades for Spain could undo the calming effect of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's announcement on September 6. Draghi said the bank would be willing to purchase sovereign bonds of fiscally-frail countries such as Spain and Italy, if these indebted nations request a bailout.

But Barroso noted it was difficult to place a time frame on Spain seeking any external aid. He added: "For Rajoy, he has said 'only if market pressure increases' and you see how yields are going up again. I think market pressure is the ultimate factor that would cause Rajoy to apply."

ADVERTISEMENT
Part of complete coverage on
May 14, 2013 -- Updated 1326 GMT (2126 HKT)
The flags of the countries which make up the European Union, outside the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
The "rich man's club" of Europe faces economic decay as it struggles to absorb Europe's "poor people", according to economic experts on the troubled region.
May 7, 2013 -- Updated 1532 GMT (2332 HKT)
Unemployment at a 16-year high and the lowest approval rating for a president in modern French history; this is the wreckage from Francois Hollande's first year in office.
May 2, 2013 -- Updated 1044 GMT (1844 HKT)
As European financial markets close for the spring celebration of May Day, protesters across Europe and beyond have taken to the streets to demonstrate.
April 26, 2013 -- Updated 1210 GMT (2010 HKT)
As Croatia prepares to enter the 27-nation European Union, the country's Prime Minister says Italy must return to being the "powerhouse of Europe."
April 25, 2013 -- Updated 1656 GMT (0056 HKT)
Spain's unemployment rate rose to a record high of 27.2% in the first quarter of 2013, the Spanish National Institute of Statistics said Thursday.
April 12, 2013 -- Updated 1246 GMT (2046 HKT)
Turkey is a "source of inspiration" to show how Islam and democracy can go hand-in-hand, the country's deputy prime minister has told CNN.
March 28, 2013 -- Updated 1439 GMT (2239 HKT)
Cypriots are discussing the long-term effects of their 10 billion euro bailout. How come the Irish and the Spanish didn't lose their savings? Why us?
March 25, 2013 -- Updated 1355 GMT (2155 HKT)
The financial uncertainty in Cyprus is generating images of long lines at ATM machines and anti-European Union protests.
March 22, 2013 -- Updated 1130 GMT (1930 HKT)
Opinion: We must be careful to avoid panic and reckless measures that would exacerbate the crisis.
March 25, 2013 -- Updated 1815 GMT (0215 HKT)
Cyprus will "step up efforts in areas of fiscal consolidation." Where have we heard that before? Oh yes. Greece.
March 25, 2013 -- Updated 1813 GMT (0213 HKT)
Lapland summit
Finland's political leaders held an informal summit in Saariselka, Lapland. Quest: This was an opportunity to see leaders "at their most honest."
March 27, 2013 -- Updated 1418 GMT (2218 HKT)
Cyprus has become the latest eurozone nation to apply for a bailout amid a financial crisis linked to debt defaults in Greece.
March 27, 2013 -- Updated 1449 GMT (2249 HKT)
BRICS leaders meet in South Africa to make deal on development bank. But instead of BRICS, today everyone is talking about the "CIVETS."
March 23, 2013 -- Updated 0139 GMT (0939 HKT)
The Cyprus debt crisis is being felt by the banks but also by the people who work at them. Nick Paton Walsh reports.
March 22, 2013 -- Updated 0010 GMT (0810 HKT)
CNN's Nick Paton Walsh reports on a Russian hotel maid caught up in Cyprus' financial crisis.
March 18, 2013 -- Updated 1608 GMT (0008 HKT)
Never underestimate the capacity of the Eurozone to shoot itself in both feet, says CNN's Richard Quest.
March 12, 2013 -- Updated 1100 GMT (1900 HKT)
Thousands of Greeks are unable to obtain life-saving drugs as pharmaceutical firms say they are limiting supplies to Greece over unpaid debts.
February 21, 2013 -- Updated 1603 GMT (0003 HKT)
Spain has seen hundreds of protests since the "Indignados" movement erupted in 2011, marches and sit-ins are now common sights in the capital.
ADVERTISEMENT