A street vendor grills corn as Egyptian soldiers stand guard at the Presidential Palace on Tuesday, December 18, in Cairo. Protesters opposed to President Mohamed Morsy's first round of voting in the constitutional referendum gather during continuing demonstrations.
Editor's note: Nancy Okail, director of Freedom House's Egypt program, is one of dozens of activists being prosecuted by the Egyptian authorities as part of a crackdown on independent civil society groups in the country. She has worked for the World Bank, the United Nations Development Program, and Egypt's Ministry of International Cooperation. Follow her on Twitter @NancyGEO
(CNN) -- This week, in a scene not witnessed during the 30-year rule of Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian presidential palace was encircled with barbed wire as thousands of protesters opposing President Mohamed Morsy besieged it from all sides. The visual is shocking, considering that a few short months ago, Morsy stood without a shield to give a speech to thousands in Tahrir Square.
Most experts would agree that Mubarak did not start out as the dictator he ultimately became. Indeed, the oppression, torture and crackdown on opposition his regime was known for grew gradually over the years before reaching the height of brutality in his last term.
It also took at least 10 years of determined commitment by activists and opposition to make change. The opposition grew from a few people beaten by police while peacefully protesting on the stairs of the Supreme Court to more organized groups such as Kefaya and April 6, to the massive citizens uprising of January 25, 2011.
But in just a few months, Morsy already has deployed all the ingredients of authoritarianism: intimidating media outlets, defaming opposition and casting doubt on their patriotism and intentions and using violence and detention against protesters.
On November 22, Morsy finally crowned these atrocities with a constitutional declaration granting him complete power over the executive, legislative and judiciary authorities, with no accountability. When the act was denounced at home and abroad, Morsy claimed that these are temporary measures were required to protect the revolution and help the transition to democracy. What has followed have been the opposite of democratic.
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Morsy quickly announced that there would be a December 15 referendum to vote on the new draft constitution that was rushed through by the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly. The majority of liberal and secular voices had already boycotted the committee over a lack of transparency in the drafting process. Despite protests, strikes and a declaration by federal judges that they will not monitor what they consider to be an illegitimate referendum, Morsy shows no sign of reversing course -- ignoring opposition in the fashion of Mubarak.
But Mubarak was not democratically elected. Then why is Morsy moving so frantically to consolidate his power without even attempting to disguise it behind a democratic facade?
The answer is, Morsy is not stupid. He is aware that he only won by a 1.7% margin. A substantial number of his voters favored him only to avoid another era of military rule at the hands of his opponent, Mubarak's ex-prime minister, Ahmed Shafik. In fact, the non-Islamist opposition arguably represents the majority, but only failed to mobilize for the election because it was deeply fragmented and disorganized. But Morsy's coup has done what some thought impossible: unite the liberal/moderate opposition.
Outside observers applauded Morsy's early decisions -- such as dismissing the heads of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, releasing military prisoners and banning pornographic websites -- as surprising and bold. However, these decisions were either populist or designed to appease his constituency of Islamists.
Morsy avoided making any painful, but essential, decisions, such as lifting subsidies, increasing prices of utilities and dealing with unemployment.
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But Morsy has made three major miscalculations.
First, he made appeasing his own constituency a bigger priority than winning over the opposition. This helped them to unify against him.
Second, he assumed that he would be immune from international criticism after his celebrated success in brokering a cease-fire between Hamas and Israeli earlier last months.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, he underestimated the Egyptian people. The massive protests on Tuesday, which included people of all ages, incomes and walks of life, showed that the Egyptian people no longer would accept dictatorship in any form.
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The opposition has shaken Morsy's misconceptions: The protests have been unified and included all political forces. Meanwhile the international community is not so naive and realizes that the opposition is not simply a minority group that wants to restore the old regime, a scenario the Brotherhood spokesmen publicly propagate.
All is not lost for Morsy if he is willing to change course. If he were to withdraw the declaration, call for a national dialogue and provide an opportunity for an inclusive space to redraft the current document of the constitution, there is hope for getting Egypt back on track in its transition.
At a minimum, he should extend the time frame for the referendum to open the door for a real national debate. This would not only spare the divided nation from descending into violent chaos but would also save Morsy and his party. It is already evident that situation is only escalating, with more violent clashes Wednesday between supporters and opponents of Morsy in front of the presidential palace.
There is no guarantee that even this will regain stability or restore Morsy's legitimacy, but what is certain is that the longer he delays his response to the angry masses, the more irreversible the situation will be.
The political dynamics in Egypt have drastically changed since the revolution.
Foreign governments, particularly the U.S., should factor this into its approach to engaging with Egypt. This does not mean siding with one regime or playing one group against the other, but rather siding with the principles of freedom and democracy against oppression and authoritarian rule.
The Egyptians are still waiting for the Obama administration to match its fine words with actions.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nancy Okail.
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Protesters chant slogans during a demonstration at the Presidential Palace on December 18 in Cairo.
An Egyptian woman types on her laptop before the start of a demonstration opposing President Mohamed Morsy on December 18 in Cairo.
People make their way through a market place on Monday, December 17, in Cairo.
A supporter of Egypt's President Mohamed Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood holds Quran as he shouts during a demonstration in Cairo on Friday, December 14.
Women pray during a demonstration in support of President Mohamed Morsy in Cairo on December 14.
Egyptian army tanks are deployed outside the presidential palace in Cairo on Thursday, December 13. Egypt's crisis showed no sign of easing as the army delayed unity talks meant to ease political divisions and the opposition set near-impossible demands for taking part in a looming constitutional referendum.
Girls walk with Egypt's national flag draped over their backs to a rally for supporters of President Mohamed Morsy in Cairo on Tuesday, December 11.
Protesters on December 11 attempt to bring down cement walls that security forces placed around the presidential palace in Cairo.
Security forces stand guard in front of the presidential palace in Cairo on December 11.
Protesters opposed to Egypt's president demonstrate on top of a barricade erected by the Egyptian army to protect the presidential palace in Cairo on December 11.
A young protester climbs atop a barricade erected by the Egyptian army on December 11. There were no incidents of violence and soldiers held the line as a couple of hundred protesters pressed up against waist-high crowd barriers.
Protesters remove part of a metal barrier protecting the presidential palace on December 11.
Egyptian army troops stand guard in front of a metal barricade on December 11.
An Egyptian army soldier patrols outside the Egyptian presidential palace on Monday, December 10, in Cairo. The Egyptian political crisis erupted last month when President Mohamed Morsy issued an edict allowing himself to run the country unchecked until the drafting of a new constitution.
Members of the Egyptian opposition gather for a protest outside the presidential palace on Sunday, December 9, in Cairo. The palace has been the scene of violent clashes pitting thousands of protesters -- for and against Morsy.
Guy Fawkes masks are displayed by a street vendor in front of the Egyptian presidential palace in Cairo on December 9. The masks depict Fawkes, a rebel executed in England's Gunpowder Plot seeking to blow up the House of Lords in the early 1600s.
Egyptian army engineers and soldiers build a third line of concrete blocks outside of the Egyptian presidential palace in Cairo in preparation for more protests on December 9.
An Egyptian protester sweeps the street near army tanks deployed outside the presidential palace in Cairo on December 8, after continued protests overnight.
A sticker depicting Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy reads "leave" on the ground near the presidential palace on December 8.
Egyptian soldiers take position on a road leading to the presidential palace on December 8.
A protester tries to climb over a barbed-wire fence as Egyptian soldiers stand guard during a demonstration near the presidential palace in Cairo on Friday, December 7.
Supporters of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy and members of the Muslim Brotherhood shout during the funerals of fellow Morsy supporters at Al-Azhar mosque in Cairo on December 7.
Protesters angry over Morsy's decisions giving himself unchecked powers surround the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters in Cairo after starting a fire inside the compound on Thursday, December 6.
Riot police form a line as anti-Morsy protesters surge around the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters in Cairo on December 6.
An anti-Morsy protester shouts during a march to the presidential palace in Cairo, Egypt, on December 6.
Protesters are blocked from approaching the the presidential palace by the Egyptian army on December 6 in Cairo.
Egyptian soldiers stand outside the presidential palace in Cairo after setting up barbed wire barricades on December 6.
Supporters of Morsy clash with anti-Morsy protesters outside the Egyptian presidential palace on Wednesday, December 5, in Cairo.
Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsy supporters destroy tents of anti-Morsy protesters outside the presidential palace on December 5.
Morsy supporters carry an injured man to safety during clashes with anti-Morsy demonstrators on a road leading to the Egyptian presidential palace on December 5.
Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and supporters of Morsy clash with anti-Morsy demonstrators on a road leading to the Egyptian presidential palace on December 5.
Egyptian riot police stand behind barbwire as thousands of Egyptian demonstrators march to the presidential palace in Cairo, Egypt, on Tuesday, December 4.
Tens of thousands of demonstrators encircled the presidential palace in Cairo after riot police failed to keep them at bay with tear gas on December 4.
An Egyptian woman waves a national flag as demonstrators march to the presidential palace in Cairo on December 4.
A Morsy supporter waves a flag outside the Supreme Constitutional Court as hundreds of supporters of the president protest on Sunday, December 2, in Cairo, forcing judges to postpone a hearing on a constitutional panel at the heart of a deepening political crisis.
Supporters of Morsy pray outside the Supreme Constitutional Court on December 2.
A man kisses a portrait of Morsy during a gathering of thousands of Islamists in front of Cairo University on Saturday, December 1.
Thousands pray during a rally in support of Morsy in front of Cairo University on December 1.
An Egyptian man delivers a speech as protesters gather in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday, November 30.
A man shouts as protesters gather in Tahrir Square on November 30.
A man holds a copy of the Quran and a cross in Tahrir Square on November 30.
Protesters run from Egyptian riot police during clashes near Cairo's Tahrir Square on Wednesday, November 28.
A protester carries a rock during clashes with police on Wednesday.
Egyptians carry a giant national flag as tens of thousands take part in a mass rally in Cairo on Tuesday, November 27, against a decree by President Mohamed Morsy granting himself broad powers.
An Egyptian protester holds up a Quran and a figure of Christ on the cross during Tuesday's demonstration.
Protesters continue to rally in Tahrir Square on Tuesday.
An Egyptian protester attempts to throw back a tear gas canister on Tuesday during clashes with riot police in Omar Makram Street, off Tahrir Square.
Activists in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Monday, November 26, carry the coffin of Gaber Salah, an activist who died overnight after he was critically injured in clashes in Cairo. Salah, a member of the April 6 movement known by his nickname "Jika," was injured last week during confrontations between police and protesters on Cairo's Mohammed Mahmud street.
Thousands of activists attend the funeral of Gaber Salah on Monday.
Protesters clash with Egyptian police at Simon Bolivar Square on Sunday, November 25, in Cairo. Egypt's powerful Muslim Brotherhood called nationwide demonstrations in support of Islamist President Mohamed Morsy in his showdown with the judges over the path to a new constitution.
Egyptian protesters hurl stones at police at Tahrir Square on Sunday.
Protesters gather at sit-in tents in Tahrir Square on Sunday.
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy waves to supporters in front of the presidential palace in Cairo on Friday, November 23. Thousands of ecstatic supporters gathered outside the presidential palace to defend their leader against accusations from rival protesters that he has become a dictator.
Morsy supporters gather outside the presidential palace in Cairo on Friday. Morsy insisted that Egypt was on the path to "freedom and democracy," as protesters held rival rallies over sweeping powers he assumed that further polarized the country's political forces.
Protesters demonstrating against Morsy run from tear gas fired by Egyptian riot police during clashes in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday.
Egyptian protesters throw rocks toward riot police on Friday
Egyptian supporters and opponents of Morsy clash in the coastal city of Alexandria on Friday.
A man throws a rock during clashes in Alexandria on Friday.
Thousands of demonstrators march through the streets of Cairo to protest against Morsy on Friday.
Clashes rocked the coastal city of Alexandria on Friday.
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