Candles burn next to a lighted tree at a makeshift shrine in Newtown, Connecticut, commemorating the victims of the mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School on December 14, 2012.
Editor's note: Katherine S. Newman is the James B. Knapp Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at Johns Hopkins University and the co-author of "Rampage: The Social Roots of School Shootings" (Basic Books, 2004).
(CNN) -- How could it happen here? This is the question plaguing residents of Newtown, Conn., a picture-perfect country town with good schools, quiet streets and a strong sense of community. But small towns like Newtown are where 60% of rampage school shootings in the United States occur. Far from big urban centers where gun violence is common, these communities are generally very safe. But more often than not, they are the places where this kind of tragedy strikes.
My research team spent two years trying to understand rampage school shootings. We spent several months in Kentucky and Arkansas, in two towns that had been the scenes of shootings in the late 1990's. We interviewed the shooters' neighbors, friends, instructors, coaches and Sunday school teachers. We talked to people who had observed the shooters in jail cells right after the shootings, and years later in prison. We combed the records of every shooting of this kind in the U.S. from the 1970s onward, looking for patterns. And while each tragedy has its own anatomy, a picture emerged that makes sociological sense and probably has some bearing on the Newtown case.
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Rampage shootings are never spontaneous. They are planned, often for months in advance. We don't know yet whether the Newtown shooter, Adam Lanza, gave any warnings, but in the episodes we studied, shooters commonly told their peers -- often in a veiled and ambiguous fashion -- what they had in mind.
One reason shooters tip their hands is that they are trying to solve a problem. Though they are often intelligent, high-performing boys, their peers tend to see them as unattractive losers, weak and unmanly. In a school culture that values sports prowess over academic accomplishment, they face rejection. The shooters are rarely loners, but tend instead to be failed joiners, and their daily social experience is full of friction. Since they are almost always mentally or emotionally ill, those rejections -- so common in adolescence -- take on greater importance and become a fixation. Rebuffed after trying to join friendship groups, they look for ways to gain attention, to reverse their damaged identities.
The shooting is the last act in a long drama: a search for acceptance and recognition. The earlier acts fail miserably. But once a shooter starts to talk about killing people, ostracism can turn to inclusion. Suddenly, he is getting the attention he has been craving. Michael Carneal, who killed three high school girls and paralyzed a fourth when he was a freshman in a Kentucky high school, pulled pranks, told loud silly jokes and stole CD's in an attempt to impress. None of it worked. But the day he started talking about shooting people, that began to change. The Goth group he desperately wanted to join wheeled in his direction for the first time.
Carneal never thought about how his actions would destroy lives or send his neighbors into a lifetime of angry mourning. Interviewed after the shooting, he said he thought that those boys would at last become his friends. He would be asked over to their houses and they would visit him. He would be cool. He was a skinny 13-year-old with glasses, a bright boy fond of reading and terrible at football -- all he was after was another identity.
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Look at photos of Seung-Hui Cho, the shooter at Virginia Tech who murdered 32 people, and you will see eerie echoes of what Lanza reportedly wore: mask, military fatigues, multiple guns in assault position. Many of these young men are trying to cast themselves as stars of a movie that ends in a blaze of suicidal gunfire and notoriety. Our research on earlier shootings showed the attack is on a school because that is the center stage in a small town, where the young men can rivet the entire community
If so many clues are out there, why don't more people see them? High-school teachers see students less than an hour a day, and rarely compare notes with other teachers, even after witnessing troubling behavior. They often do not document infractions, preferring to address problems in their own classrooms.
Peers, on the other hand, do hear things. Why don't they come forward?
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First, the signal is noisy. Michael Carneal was always saying goofy things. He explained to his would-be friends that they would see who "lived or died on Monday." Mitchell Johnson, who, together with Andrew Golden, killed four kids and a teacher in an Arkansas middle school, told his friends that he would be "running from the cops." They recognized in hindsight that he was telegraphing his intentions. But at the time, most didn't know what to make of these comments. A few students took Michael Carneal's warnings so seriously that they didn't go to school that fateful Monday. But none of the dozens of kids in either school who heard veiled threats reported them to adults.
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They didn't know how to interpret the signals. In the context of goofball comments they were used to, how could they know these were real warnings? Crossing the DMZ that separates kids from adults in early adolescence is socially dangerous. Why risk being deemed a tattletale or teacher's pet when you don't know whether those crazy asides actually mean anything?
This quandary is the root of preventing rampage shootings in schools. Law enforcement will never be able to respond fast enough to stop shootings that often end in seconds. This is why we have to find ways for people who hear troubling rumors or threats to report them to people who can investigate and intervene. And while we do not know enough now to tell whether anyone had a clue about Adam Lanza's murderous intentions, it will not come as a shock if it turns out there were people in his social orbit who had an inkling, fuzzy and incredible as that inkling might be. It would fit the pattern of what we saw in virtually all of the other rampage shootings in American schools.
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Would gun control help? Yes and no. Yes, because anything that thwarts the efforts of a Carneal or a Johnson to get their hands on guns will make it harder to perpetrate a massacre and will deter the ambivalent. If Adam Lanza had had to go to greater lengths to get his hands on weapons, he might have run out of psychic energy to do this terrible deed. It appears he had little trouble, though, because the guns belonged to his mother, were registered and legally owned. Why in the world we enable civilians to own such lethal instruments baffles millions of citizens and will be the subject of a searching debate if our politicians can get over the barriers that have prevented serious reform.
But gun control is not enough. A determined person will find a way. Andrew Golden and Mitchell Johnson took a blow torch to a safe to try to get at the guns they knew were hidden there. That failed, so they found wire clippers and managed to cut their way through the cables that were supposed to keep Golden's grandfather's gun collection out of the wrong hands. People who are this intent on getting their hands on weapons are very difficult to stop. That is not an argument against gun control because thousands of unbalanced young men are not quite that determined; they are ambivalent. That is why gun control is a necessary but not sufficient step.
Although we will not be able to stop all of these tragedies, we can cut down on their number by insuring that adults make themselves available to kids in completely confidential settings, reassuring them of their privacy when they take that risky step to come forward. We can provide opportunities for "round pegs" like Michael Carneal, a bright, intellectually inclined kid, to find a social space that doesn't depend on athletic prowess or a handsome face.
If the reports of his childhood acquaintances prove to be correct, Adam Lanza may have been through a similar experience. Kids can be very cruel and they are not always courageous enough to own up to their culpability for ostracism, particularly since they don't know -- and cannot be held responsible -- for the extreme consequences of emotional damage they may be causing.
In the end, though, there will be troubled boys and some of them will become killers. To the extent that we can capture the warning signals they send out to their peers, we can do our best to stop them in their tracks, even if we do not always succeed.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Katherine Newman
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Erica Simmons rings the campus bell at Agnes Scott College in Decatur, Georgia, during a nationwide commemoration December 21, marking a week since the Newtown, Connecticut, mass shooting. Church bells rang out across the country at 9:30 ET Friday to remember those who died in the gun rampage.
A woman pauses at a streetside memorial during a moment of silence on December 21 in Newtown.
Connecticut State Police block the road to Sandy Hook Elementary School during a moment of silence on December 21. A week ago, a gunman forced his way into the school and shot and killed 26 people, including 20 children.
A woman bows her head in Newtown's Sandy Hook village on December 21.
People observe a moment of silence for the school shooting victims at the Blue Colony Diner in Newtown on December 21.
Children in Newtown, excluding Sandy Hook Elementary, return to classes on Tuesday, December 18, four days after the shooting at the elementary school.
U.S. Rep. David Cicilline, D-Rhode Island, holds a news conference with the Brady Campaign to discuss gun violence. In attendance with the Brady Campaign were several survivors of gun violence and family members of victims of gun violence.
Members of the human rights group Volunteers Against Crime and Corruption light candles showing the names of those killed during the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, during a prayer vigil in front of the U.S. Embassy in Manila, Philippines on December 18.
Children light candles to pay their respects to the victims of the Newtown, Connecticut, shooting at the main square in Tirana, Albania, on Monday, December 17. The deadly gun rampage at Sandy Hook Elementary School has provoked strong reactions from around the world.
Protesters march on the National Rifle Association's Capitol Hill lobbyist offices in Washington on December 17.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg speaks out for stronger gun control at a press conference at City Hall on December 17. Bloomberg, co-chair of Mayors Against Illegal Guns, was joined by victims and survivors of gun violence.
Chris Foye, whose son Chris Owens was killed by a stray bullet in 2009, stands with other survivors and family members of gun violence at Bloomberg's press conference on December 17 in New York.
People pay their respects on December 17 at a makeshift shrine in Newtown to the victims of Friday's elementary school shooting. Funerals began Monday in the Connecticut town.
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange hold a moment of silence on December 17 in honor of the shooting victims.
Young people mourn at Newtown High School before a memorial service attended by President Obama on Sunday, December 16.
President Barack Obama waits to speak at an interfaith vigil for the shooting victims from Sandy Hook Elementary School December 16 at Newtown High School.
Mourners comfort one another December 16 before U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at an interfaith vigil for the shooting victims.
Two women embrace before the interfaith vigil at Newtown High School on Sunday evening.
From left: Newtown residents Claire Swanson, Kate Suba, Jaden Albrecht, Simran Chand and New London, Connecticut, residents Rachel Pullen and her son, Landon DeCecco, hold candles at a memorial for victims on Sunday, December 16, in Newtown, Connecticut.
A young boy walks past Christmas trees set up at a makeshift shrine to the shooting victims in Newtown, Connecticut, on December 16.
Ty Diaz is kissed by his mother, Yvette, at a memorial down the street from Sandy Hook on December 16.
Teddy bears, flowers and candles in memory of those killed are left at a memorial down the street from the school on December 16.
Two teenagers embrace at a makeshift shrine to the victims in Newtown on December 16.
Nuns pay their respects at a makeshift shrine to the victims on December 16.
Members of Sisters of Christian Charity go to lay flowers in front of the Sandy Hook Elementary School on December 16 in Newtown.
A woman receives a hug as she leaves morning service December 16 at Trinity Church in Newtown near the elementary school.
Parishioners pay their respects to the victims of the elementary school shooting while attending Mass at St. Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown on December 16.
Police officers honor the victims of the school shooting at the St. Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church on December 16 in Newtown.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a moment of silence in honor of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting victims before their game against the Miami Dolphins on December 16.
A parishioner kneels in front of a makeshift memorial at St. Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown on December 16.
A police officer removes flowers from a busy intersection on December 16 in Newtown. Police said they were afraid the memorial, left for the victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, would cause a traffic hazard.
A woman hugs her daughter on the steps of Trinity Church on December 16 in Newtown.
Angel wood cutouts for each of the 27 victims are set up on hillside in Newtown on December 16.
People in Bangalore, India, hold cards and photographs of the slain at a candlelight vigil outside a Catholic church on December 16.
J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans shows his glove in remembrance of the victims before the start of a game against the Indianapolis Colts on December 16 in Houston.
Donna Soto, right, mother of Victoria Soto, the first-grade teacher at Sandy Hook Elementary School who was shot and killed while protecting her students, hugs her daughter Karly while mourning their loss at a candlelight memorial at Stratford High School on Saturday, December 15, in Stratford, Connecticut.
Firefighters kneel to pay their respects at a makeshift memorial near the school in Newtown on Saturday.
A child lights a candle at a memorial filled with flowers, stuffed toys and candles outside of Saint Rose of Lima Church near Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut on Saturday.
Candles light up a memorial outside of Saint Rose of Lima Church in Newtown.
Lucas, Kelly and Michael DaSilva pray and embrace at a makeshift memorial near the school in Newtown.
People are overcome with emotion Saturday at a makeshift memorial near Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown.
Residents arrive Saturday to pay tribute to the victims of an elementary school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.
A couple carry balloons to place at a curbside shrine to in Newtown on Saturday.
A mother and daughter attend a prayer service at St. John's Episcopal Church in Newtown on Saturday.
Flowers and signs of sympathy adorn the street leading to Sandy Hook Elementary School.
Claudia Urbiana and daughter Jocelyne Cardenas, left, hug outside of the entrance to the Sandy Hook school.
A makeshift memorial with flowers, stuffed toys and candles sit outside Saint Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown, Connecticut, on Saturday.
A man bows his head as he stands at a makeshift memorial, outside Saint Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown on Saturday, December 15.
New Jersey resident Steve Wruble, who was moved to drive out to Connecticut to support local residents, grieves for victims at the entrance to Sandy Hook village in Newtown on Saturday.
People attend a prayer service in Newtown on Saturday to reflect.
A mother hugs her children after paying tribute to the victims in Newtown on Saturday, December 15.
Newtown High School student Trevor Lopez stands outside of a church where residents have come to pray and reflect on Saturday
Andrea Jaeger places flowers and a candle at a makeshift memorial outside a firehouse near Sandy Hook Elementary School on Saturday.
The U.S. flag flies at half-staff above the White House on Saturday.
Ken Kowalsky and his daughter Rebecca, 13, embrace while standing at the end of the road leading to Sandy Hook Elementary School on Saturday.
A woman puts a flower near crosses planted by Rio de Paz (Rio of Peace), in memory of the victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary school shooting on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday.
A woman sits during a service at the Asylum Hill Congregational Church in Hartford, Connecticut on Friday, December 14.
Fans at the NBA game between the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns participate in a moment of silence for the victims of the Newtown shooting on Friday in Phoenix.
An overflow crowd listens to a church service held at the St. Rose of Lima Catholic Church in Newtown on December 14.
People gather for a prayer vigil at St. Rose Church on Friday.
People gather for a vigil outside the White House in Washington following the Connecticut elementary school shooting on Friday.
Candles burn as people gather for a vigil outside the White House.
Hartford, Connecticut, Mayor Padro Segarra speaks emotionally about the students and teachers who died earlier in the day at Sandy Hook Elementary School in nearby Newtown at a candlelight vigil at Bushnell Park in Hartford on Friday.
Cynthia Alvarez is comforted by her mother, Lilia, as people gather for a prayer vigil at St. Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown.
People gather for a prayer vigil at St. Rose Church in Newtown.
People gather for a prayer vigil at St. Rose Church.
People gather inside the St. Rose Church to remember the shooting victims on Friday
A woman bows her head during a vigil for the shooting victims at St. Rose Church.
People gather in the St. Rose Church for a memorial service Friday.
Women comfort each other during the vigil at St. Rose Church.
A woman looks on during the vigil at St. Rose Church.
People hug outside of the Newtown United Methodist Church on Friday, near the site of the shootings at the Sandy Hook school.
A flag at the U.S. Capitol flies at half-staff after President Barack Obama ordered the action while speaking from the White House. Obama called for "meaningful action" in the wake of the school shooting.
Julie Henson of San Francisco joins other people outside the White House to participate in a candlelight vigil on Friday.
Obama wipes tears as he makes a statement in response to the shooting on Friday.
Washington resident Rachel Perrone, left, and her 5-year-old son, Joe, center, join others outside the White House in a candlelight vigil.
Faisal Ali, right, of Colorado Springs, Colorado, joins the vigil outside the White House.
People gather outside the White House to participate in a candlelight vigil.
Supporters of gun control hold a candlelight vigil for victims of the shooting outside the White House.
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