Skip to main content

Predicting mass killings impossible

By Edward P. Mulvey, Special to CNN
December 18, 2012 -- Updated 1635 GMT (0035 HKT)
Connecticut State Police officers search outside St. Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown, Connecticut, on Sunday, December 16, after a threat prompted authorities to evacuate the building. Investigators found nothing to substantiate the reported threat, a police official said, declining to provide additional details. The church held Sunday services following last week's mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown. Connecticut State Police officers search outside St. Rose of Lima Roman Catholic Church in Newtown, Connecticut, on Sunday, December 16, after a threat prompted authorities to evacuate the building. Investigators found nothing to substantiate the reported threat, a police official said, declining to provide additional details. The church held Sunday services following last week's mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown.
HIDE CAPTION
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
Connecticut school shooting
<<
<
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
>
>>
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Edward Mulvey: The shooting of 26 innocent people in Connecticut is horrific
  • Mulvey: We know that the shooter, Adam Lanza, was not evil personified
  • He says it's nearly impossible to identify a killer before a mass shooting
  • Mulvey: Talking and helping those with mental disorders is best way to help them

Editor's note: Edward P. Mulvey is a professor of psychiatry and director of the law and psychiatry program at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine.

(CNN) -- The shooting of 26 innocent children and teachers in an elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut, is more horrific than any of us can ever imagine. We ask, like many times before, how such a brutal and irrational act could have happened. Why would anyone do something like this?

President Barack Obama wants to take action; our neighbors want to take action. We all want to convince ourselves that the world has not gone mad. We want to find and address the core of the problem.

So we look hard for explanations. Some say evil has shown itself -- a simplistic salve. In our hearts, we know that the shooter, Adam Lanza, was not evil personified. We know at this point that he was a withdrawn, socially awkward young man, reportedly with Asperger's syndrome, living with his mother.

We would like to think that if only professionals could identify any shooters before they commit any violence, then we could prevent these tragedies. If they had been locked up, then they couldn't have killed anyone. Or if they had been forced to take their medicine, then they wouldn't have gotten to a point of no return. If we can find these people, keep guns away from them, restrict their civil liberties and monitor them closely enough, then we would have solved the problem.

Become a fan of CNNOpinion
Stay up to date on the latest opinion, analysis and conversations through social media. Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion and follow us @CNNOpinion on Twitter. We welcome your ideas and comments.



This approach won't work. Hindsight is not foresight. The picture is much more complex than simply developing "profiles." Knowing this young man's profile wouldn't have told us how likely he was going to walk into a classroom and open fire.

Opinion: After tragedy, don't obsess, heal gently

There are a large number of withdrawn, socially awkward young men in our society; some have mental disorders and some don't. We simply cannot predict which ones will go on a shooting rampage. It's like looking for a needle in a haystack; you will probably only know where it is when it pricks your finger.

Of those who do have a mental disorder, few of them reach the level of extreme desperation that they want to die and hurt others (very dramatically) in the process. People fluctuate in how distraught or likely they are to commit violence, depending on either deterioration of their mental condition, or, like all of us do, in reaction to events in their lives (a disparaging remark from a co-worker, a lost romantic relationship, etc).

Carney: Hard to forget Newtown rawness
Searching for answers in Newtown tragedy
Looking at past shootings for answers

We cannot readily determine who might become so desperate as to see mass killings as reasonable. Striking out at others is often a combination of giving up mixed with rage. In one young man whom I knew, it could have gone either way. He walked in front of a train, but he could have as easily hurt many others to relieve his pain and despair.

Getting support and services to the people who matter to those with mental disorders is where the answer lies. We will only know what is happening in a troubled person's mind by talking to them regularly before they are desperate. The idea of identifying, ostracizing and restricting them is not only inhuman, but impossible. We need to embrace them as members of our community who are facing immense struggles.

But most people with mental disorders aren't in treatment. About 1 in 4 adults in the United States suffers from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year. We aren't, however, willing to invest the resources to provide ongoing outpatient care to them. Besides they may be afraid to reveal problems to professionals who seem out of touch with their lives.

Parents of disturbed, struggling children and adolescents need to know and talk to parents in similar situations. These parents know that they may get the telephone call at 2 a.m. with news of some tragic incident, and they need the support of others who understand what they are facing on a daily basis.

Opinion: Get serious about mental health care

Looking for individuals with mental illness and their parents only subverts what we all want -- to find out in advance about these incidents and to keep them from happening. By staying in touch with those who are suffering with mental disorder, we are in the best position to help them -- and their parents -- to forestall any possible slip into violence.

Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion

Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Edward P. Mulvey.

ADVERTISEMENT
Part of complete coverage on
May 20, 2013 -- Updated 1536 GMT (2336 HKT)
Julian Zelizer says that Obama, like many before him, chose to work within the system to get things done rather than lead transformative change.
May 20, 2013 -- Updated 1522 GMT (2322 HKT)
Meg Urry says loss of the failing, planet-finding Kepler satellite would be huge for NASA--but one way or another, it's a matter of time before we find signs of life on other worlds
May 20, 2013 -- Updated 1132 GMT (1932 HKT)
Elizabeth Dunn and Michael Norton write that people pass up opportunities to spend their money to avoid disagreeable tasks
May 18, 2013 -- Updated 2022 GMT (0422 HKT)
Paul Butler says when President Obama delivers the commencement address at Morehouse, he has explaining to do.
May 19, 2013 -- Updated 1345 GMT (2145 HKT)
Bob Greene on how 18th century Americans tried to make sense of the day with no sun
May 18, 2013 -- Updated 0057 GMT (0857 HKT)
With guest Rep. Keith Ellison, John Avlon, Margaret Hoover and Dean Obeidallah discuss the president's scandal trifecta, hope for immigration and what Jolie's revelation means for women.
May 17, 2013 -- Updated 1709 GMT (0109 HKT)
The press has turned on President Obama with a vengeance, writes Howard Kurtz
May 18, 2013 -- Updated 1801 GMT (0201 HKT)
Donna Brazile says our democracy is endangered, not by the Russians, North Korea, Iran or even terrorists. To quote Pogo: "We have met the enemy and he is us."
May 18, 2013 -- Updated 1759 GMT (0159 HKT)
Photographer Arne Svenson defends his show "Neighbors," portraits of the occupants of a building near him taken through their windows.
May 20, 2013 -- Updated 1337 GMT (2137 HKT)
Theater critic Kevin Williamson was kicked out of a play when he took the phone away from an audience member and threw it. He says it was worth it.
May 18, 2013 -- Updated 1425 GMT (2225 HKT)
U.S. actor Angelina Jolie (L) holds daughter Zahara as husband and actor Brad Pitt (C) carries son Maddox during a stroll on the seafront promenade at the historic Gateway of India outside their hotel in Mumbai on November 12, 2006.
Gil Welch says women must not panic over Angelina Jolie's mastectomies: 99% of women don't carry the BRCA1 gene.
May 18, 2013 -- Updated 0852 GMT (1652 HKT)
JR's "Inside Out" project brings public spaces alive with giant representations of people
May 17, 2013 -- Updated 1922 GMT (0322 HKT)
Roger Colinvaux says the IRS scandal is fundamentally about disclosure of donors, not tax-exempt status.
May 17, 2013 -- Updated 1149 GMT (1949 HKT)
Alex Castellanos says Chris Matthews is wrong; the Washington controversies result from a government that is too big to control
May 20, 2013 -- Updated 1332 GMT (2132 HKT)
Mike Downey says Los Angeles has well-funded but clueless sports teams.
May 17, 2013 -- Updated 1552 GMT (2352 HKT)
Grace Liu says It's time for some tiger cubs to approvingly roar for our strict and demanding parents
May 17, 2013 -- Updated 1157 GMT (1957 HKT)
Sens. Al Franken and Roger Wicker say we need a strong SEC to make sure credit ratings fraud doesn't bring down the economy again.
May 16, 2013 -- Updated 1425 GMT (2225 HKT)
LZ Granderson says instead of reducing the blood alcohol content threshold, how about enforcing existing laws better?
May 16, 2013 -- Updated 1514 GMT (2314 HKT)
Maia Goodell says the military should use civil legal remedies on sexual assault cases.
ADVERTISEMENT