Malian soldiers transport in a pickup truck a dozen suspected Islamist rebels on Friday, February 8, after arresting them north of Gao. A suicide bomber blew himself up on February 8 near a group of Malian soldiers in the northern city, where Islamist rebels driven from the town have resorted to guerilla attacks.
Editor's note: Derek Henry Flood is a writer specializing in international security issues. His work has been published by the Jamestown Foundation, Jane's and CNN, and he was in Mali in 2012.
(CNN) -- The French government has thrown down the gauntlet to the jihadists of Ansar Dine and their fellow travelers in Mali -- and insists its goal is nothing short of eradicating these militant groups.
It is a major undertaking, even with U.S. logistical and intelligence help and the prospect of reinforcement from African states. And the outcome is far from assured.
Operation Serval seeks to push Islamist groups out of northern Mali's key cities as well as smaller towns dotted through this vast region. But these groups have had nine months to establish defenses and a chain of command and improve their arsenals.
Read: Rebels clinging to key town in Mali
As I found out last summer on a journey north from the capital, Bamako, into the dusty heartlands of Mali, the seizure of the north by Islamist groups has traumatized tens of thousands of civilians. Many have fled their homes; others have endured hunger or cruel punishment for "offenses" that didn't exist before the Islamists arrived.
So ordinary Malians are welcoming the French intervention. But their enthusiasm may wear off, if the result is prolonged urban warfare and destruction.
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On my trip up the RN15 last June, one of the few roads in Mali worthy of the description, I met Mohammed al-Mahmoud, a noted Tuareg artisan from Timbuktu. At that point, Mali's security forces had melted away in the face of the Islamists' advance.
Al-Mahmoud told me he had seen no vestige of the state in Konna, a town of some 50,000 people, contradicting the assertion of a high-ranking military officer who assured me his forces were deployed there -- precisely to deter a possible push southward by the Islamists.
In reality, Konna was in the middle of an ungoverned buffer-zone rather than a well-guarded front-line town. And it stayed that way for months, perhaps lulling foreign governments and even the Malian army into a false sense of security. That is until last week, when militants of Ansar Dine made a sudden move southward to take the town and get within striking distance of the important town of Mopti and the airport at Sévaré.
Read: Is this al Qaeda's 'last chance' for a country?
That provoked the immediate arrival of French air and ground forces in Mali to help local troops push back the advancing jihadis. Over the weekend Mirage warplanes launched sorties against Léré, near the border with Mauritania, as well as the key hub of Gao and the town of Douentza. Now French armored personnel carriers are heading north from Bamako.
The United Kingdom is pledging to help the transport of troops from neighboring African states, and the United States will employ its vast technical capabilities to assist in the overall operations. But France will be the essential external actor in the conflict.
Mali's meltdown began in mid-January of last year when the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), an ethnic Tuareg separatist outfit, and Ansar Dine, a newly formed Salafi-jihadi group, attacked the northeastern town of Menaka.
Read: France determined to 'eradicate' terrorism in Mali, official says
Following a succession of lighting raids by heavily armed rebel groups in late March 2012, Malian security forces evacuated three northern regions: Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal. Mali's army, national police and paramilitary gendarme force, who had been stationed in the north, relocated to the safety of garrisons and cinder-block station houses south of a rapidly created front line. And for a while the disparate rebel movements worked together in an ad hoc alliance despite their very different ideologies and goals.
But before long the highly divergent agendas of Ansar Dine and the MNLA led to clashes between them. Ansar Dine is led by a Tuareg by the name of Iyad ag Ghaly -- a veteran separatist-turned-Islamist. The jihadists prevailed.
However, Ghaly's Ansar Dine is just one of three Salafi-jihadi groups in northern Mali. His turban-clad men were soon joined by the Saharan contingent of the Algerian-led al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and another hitherto unknown group, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), believed to be run by a Mauritanian national named Hamada Ould Khairou. On December 7, 2012, the U.S. State Department listed Khairou as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist."
The loss of the north -- and resentment among army officers that they were inadequately equipped to fight the rebellion -- led to a coup against the democratically elected President, Amadou Toumani Touré. He was overthrown by a military junta led by an obscure army captain Amadou Sanogo, who accused him of appeasement when dealing with AQIM and Tuareg separatists.
The well-armed Islamist groups may have decided not to advance further south after their initial seizure of territory because they were occupied in consolidating their power in the areas already under their control. A fragile status quo left the international community with the illusion that there was sufficient time to plan for military action, while leaving room for negotiations that might lead to a political solution.
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The French were the most bullish in supporting military intervention by ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), but the scale of the task was recognized as enormous. The Malian military was low on morale and equipment, the distances vast and the territory difficult. Mali's neighbors dithered with their own military planning as a series of fruitless, drawn-out talks with various rebel factions were led by Blaise Compaoré, Burkina Faso's longtime president and his foreign minister, Djibril Bassolé.
President Compaoré, a one-time confidant of the late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, has a reputation for meddling in the affairs of his West African neighbors, including past conflicts in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Ivory Coast. Much to the consternation of pro-junta Malian hardliners, Burkina Faso invited the rebels to talks at a plush Ouagadougou hotel and sent a high-level delegation to Gao and Kidal led by Bassolé.
Cheikh Modibo Diarra, the recently ousted transitional prime minister in Mali (and former NASA scientist) said in November that he was open to talks in Burkina Faso with both the MNLA and the jihadists of Ansar Dine on the condition that they were Malian citizens with a purely Malian agenda. Soon thereafter, he lost his job -- once again displaying the complete dysfunction of Malian politics. It seems Diarra's initiative ran afoul Captain Sanogo, who wields considerable influence despite formally handing over to a civilian president.
On December 20, the United Nations Security Council passed resolution 2085 under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, allowing for the eventual creation and deployment of international troops in Mali. The UN allowed for the creation of African-led International Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA) in concert with ECOWAS and the African Union. Members of the international community hoped for certain benchmarks to be met among Mali's political elites and the military junta that still wields considerable power.
But it seems Ansar Dine and MUJAO were operating on their own strategic timetable, catching many off guard -- including civilians who were forced to flee the fighting.
The U.S. has watched the deteriorating situation in Mali with concern -- but with no appetite for direct intervention. After the September attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seemed to suggest that there may have been a link between AQIM operating freely in Mali's ungoverned spaces and the tragedy in eastern Libya.
Read: Panetta: U.S. could provide logistical, intel support in Mali
"They [AQIM] are working with other violent extremists to undermine the democratic transitions under way in North Africa, as we tragically saw in Benghazi," she said.
But it's been difficult to stitch together a coalition of African countries willing or able to go to war on behalf of Mali's weak civilian government. Many of Mali's neighbors were rightly concerned about the prospect of a wider regional conflict and the risk of terrorist blowback at home.
And they were concerned that a substantial part of Mali's population might not welcome them.
These are not states with well-trained Rapid Reaction Forces, nor the airlift or support to inject a sizeable presence into hostile territory. But now at least seven west African countries are ready to supply troops to a regional intervention force.
The two principle hawks on Mali have been French President Francois Hollande and Niger President Mahamadou Issoufou (who's offering soldiers to the ECOWAS force), two leaders who believe they may have the most to lose, should Mali's conflict worsen.
France still has a number of hostages in northern Mali, including four of its citizens captured by Mali-based militants in neighboring Niger in 2010 while working for Areva, the French uranium mining consortium. AQIM has been holding the men as bargaining chips and could potentially execute them in response to the French intervention.
In Niger, President Issoufou fears armed conflict (and a tide of refugees) could spill into the country's northern regions and re-ignite its own Tuareg troubles.
Despite the relatively small number of militant fighters, there is little simple about the French operation. The distances are huge, the geography difficult, and the risk of neighboring countries being dragged into Mali's crisis cannot be discounted. The French defense minister has acknowledged that the militants are a determined adversary that is well equipped. It will take more than a few air strikes to dislodge them.
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Malians look at the charred motorcycle used by a suicide bomber before he blew himself up near a group of Malian soldiers on February 8. The act marked the first suicide attack in the embattled west African nation since the start of a French-led offensive to oust the Islamists from Mali's north, where they had controlled key towns for 10 months.
A convoy of French army vehicles head toward Gao on February 7. France is mulling over when to hand off its four-week-old intervention to U.N. peacekeepers.
A man searches through the ruins of a building destroyed by French airstrikes in Douentza, Mali, on Tuesday, February 5. The town was retaken by French and Malian troops in January.
A child holds up a machine gun round found in the ruins of a building destroyed by French airstrikes in Douentza, Mali, on February 5.
A child leads a donkey cart past a destroyed Malian army armored vehicle near Douentza, Mali, on February 5.
Malians welcome France's President Francois Hollande as he arrives in Timbuktu on Saturday, February 2. French-led troops are working to secure the area against Islamist militants.
A man sweeps the red carpet at Mali's Mopti airport on January 2 before the arrival of Hollande and Mali's interim President Dioncounda Traore.
French soldiers patrol next to the Djingareyber mosque, on January 31, in Timbuktu, Mali. The city was recaptured on January 28, by French-led forces in their offensive against Islamist rebels who have been occupying Mali's north since last April.
French air strikes destroyed this vehicle outside the northern Malian city of Gao.
Men play boules, a game that was forbidden under Islamist rule. on January Wednesday, 30, in Gao, Mali. Gao, once a key Islamist stronghold, was retaken on January 26 by French and Malian troops.
A Malian soldier tries to disperse looters in Timbuktu, Mali, on Tuesday, January 29. Malian and French forces have been battling Islamist militants to loosen their grip on the country. France was the colonial power in Mali until 1960.
People cheer along a road in Ansongo, a town near the northern Malian city of Gao, as troops from neighboring Niger enter the city.
A man waves a French flag as residents celebrate the arrival of Niger troops on January 29 in Ansongo.
Niger troops enter Ansongo on January 29.
Malian soldiers enter the historic city of Timbuktu on Monday, January 28.
French soldiers flying back from Timbuktu arrive at the French army base camp in Sevare on January 28.
A man prays in the recently liberated town of Douentza on January 28.
Wounded Malian soldiers rest after receiving medical care at the Polyclinique of Kati on Sunday, January 27.
Malian soldiers wait at a checkpoint near Sevare on January 27.
A French soldier walks through the bush in central Mali on January 27.
Malian soldiers wait at a checkpoint near Sevare on January 27.
A Malian soldier stands amid debris Saturday, January 26, in the key central town of Konna, which has been under French and Malian army control since last week. It was taken on January 11 by Islamist groups.
Malian soldiers walk past the bullet-riddled wall of a house in Konna on Saturday, January 26.
A Malian soldier looks at the wreckage of an Islamist rebel's armed pickup truck in Konna.
Ammunition lies on the ground in Konna.
Malian soldiers escort journalists in Konna.
Malian soldiers patrol a street of Diabaly on January 26.
Ali Ag Noh, right, stands with his family in front of his house on Friday, Janurary 25, in the village of Seribala, Mali, after his cousin and brother-in-law, Aboubakrim Ag Mohamed, and a cattle rancher, Samba Dicko, were shot dead on January 24, allegedly by the Malian Army. According to Noh, Mohamed, a Tuareg, and Dicko were shot in the head in Seribala after being accused by two Malian soldiers of being Islamists or aiding Islamists.
Members of the French army arrive at a base camp in Sevare, Mali, on January 25. French and Malian troops advanced on the key Islamist stronghold of Gao after recapturing the northern town of Hombori as the extremists bombed a strategic bridge to thwart a new front planned in the east.
Malian soldiers ride a motorcycle in a street of Merkala, on Thursday, January 24, 2013 as the first of the 6,000 troops pledged by African nations to support France started heading north.
A Malian soldier armed with a machine gun watches a herd of cattle crossing a bridge over the Niger River on January 24. Mali's military offensive against militants controlling the northern half of the country has gathered pace in the past two weeks, with backing from France and other international allies.
A French army convoy travels near Segou, in south-central Mali, is on its way to Diabaly on January 24.
A woman who fled northern Mali sits at a camp for internally displaced persons in Sevare on Wednesday, January 23. The EU announced 20 million euros of extra humanitarian aid to help Malians fleeing fighting, its second such donation in as many months.
A soldier rides on the back of a scooter outside Diabaly on January 23.
Malians walk past a destroyed truck mounted with a machine gun on Tuesday, January 22. The truck was used by militants and destroyed during airstrikes by the French air force.
Malian soldiers patrol Diabaly on January 22.
Malian soldiers walk past destroyed army barracks as they patrol in Diabaly on January 22, 2013.
A French soldier mans his post on January 22 near the city of Diabaly, Mali.
A French soldier stands guard in front of charred pickups used by Islamist rebels in Diabaly, Mali, on Monday, January 21. The Malian military says it has gained control of the town of Diabaly, a key advance in the battle against Islamist militants in the north.
A Malian soldier walks past a army building that was taken by the jihadists before being destroyed during aerial bombing in Diabaly on January 21.
A Malian soldier searches through debris after aerial bombing in the city of Diabaly on January 21.
A French soldier looks around after arriving in Diabaly on January 21.
French soldiers unload military equipment from an aircraft on January 21.
Malian youths look on as French soldiers drive through Niono on Sunday, January 20.
The French Army conducts operations in Mali on January 20.
A Malian soldier holds a machine gun on top of a jeep on the road back from the town of Mopti, Mali, on Saturday, January 19.
French soldiers of the 5th Combat Helicopter Regiment stand with their equipment in front of a helicopter on January 19 at an airbase near Bamako, Mali. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on January 19 that France now had 2,000 troops on the ground in Mali as part of a drive against Islamist militants holding the north of the country.
French soldiers of the 5th Combat Helicopter Regiment relax on January 19 at the airbase near Bamako.
A French soldier from the helicopter regiment stands guard at the airbase on January 19.
Malian soldiers check the identity of passengers in a bus coming from Mopti on January 19.
French President Francois Hollande, left, speaks with soldiers who are due to leave for Mali, during a meeting in Tulle, France, on January 19.
Malian soldiers sit in a truck on their way to Niono, Mali, on Friday, January 18.
A Malian child looks out from a bus as Malian army soldiers check vehicles and passengers in the city of Niono on Friday, January 18. Malian troops, with help from France and a U.N.-mandated African force, are fighting al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants.
Malian soldiers man a checkpoint in Niono on January 18.
Togolese troops board a plane to Bamako, Mali, on Thursday, January 17, at the Lome airport in Togo. Troops from West African countries are heading to Mali as part of a U.N.-mandated African force to fight the insurgents.
Helmets belonging to soldiers of the Nigerian army are prepared to be sent to Mali at the Nigerian army peacekeeping center near Kaduna, Nigeria, on January 17.
Malian soldiers stand guard as Mali's President Dioncounda Traore speaks to French troops at an air base in Bamako, Mali, on Wednesday, January 16.
A Malian soldier adjusts his weapon as President Traore speaks to French troops at an air base in Bamako on January 16.
French army soldiers stand on armoured vehicles as they leave Bamako and start their deployment to the north of Mali as part of the Serval operation on Tuesday, January 15.
A French flag is hung on a van in Bamako as French troops start a deployment in the north of Mali on Wednesday.
French troops prepare their Sagaie armoured all terrain vehicles from the Licorne operation based in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, at the 101st military airbase near Bamako on Wednesday.
French troops from the Licorne operation based in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, arrive at the 101st military airbase near Bamako on Wednesday to reinforce the Serval operations, before their deployment in the north of Mali.
Malian police patrol in the capital of Bamako on Sunday, January 13.
Malian police patrol Bamako on Sunday.
A British army Boeing C-17 cargo plane from British Brize Norton base lands Sunday at the Evreux military base in France to take supplies to Bamako.
French soldiers prepare cargo for a British plane en route to Bamako on Sunday at the Evreux military base.
A French armored vehicle rolls onto a British army aircraft to be taken to Bamako on Sunday in Evreux.
Workers adjust chains on a vehicle load in the C-17 in Evreux on Sunday.
Internally displaced Malians from Timbuktu chat at a makeshift cafe in Bamako on Sunday.
French President Francois Hollande, right, speaks with members of Malian associations in France during a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Sunday.
Muslim men protest French military action in Mali outside the French Embassy in central London on Saturday, January 12. About 50 Muslim protesters gathered outside the embassy.
Protesters wave signs outside the French Embassy on Saturday in London.
The interim president of Mali, Dioncounda Traore, speaks after a ministerial Cabinet meeting in Bamako on Friday, January 11. Malian authorities declared a state of emergency throughout the country on Friday as the army launched a counteroffensive against Islamists who were pushing south.
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