Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.
Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.
A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.
People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.
People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.
Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.
A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.
Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.
A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.
A Kurdish fighter from the "Popular Protection Units" (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.
People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.
Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.
Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.
Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.
A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.
A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.
A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.
Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.
Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.
The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.
A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.
A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.
A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.
A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.
A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.
A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.
Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.
Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.
Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.
A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.
Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.
A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.
A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.
A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.
A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.
Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.
A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.
A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.
People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.
Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.
An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.
Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.
A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.
A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.
Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.
A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.
Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.
A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.
A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.
Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.
Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.
A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.
Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.
The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.
Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.
Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.
A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.
Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.
A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.
Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.
A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.
A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a "sniper alley" near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.
Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.
A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.
A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.
A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.
Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.
A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.
A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.
A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.
Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.
Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.
A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.
A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.
A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.
Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.
Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.
A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.
A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.
Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.
A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.
A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.
Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.
A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.
Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.
People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.
A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.
A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.
A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.
Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.
Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.
Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.
A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.
Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.
Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.
A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.
A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.
Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.
A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.
A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.
A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.
A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.
Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.
Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.
A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.
Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.
A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.
A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the "Day of Rage" demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.
Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.
A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.
Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia
- Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in a proxy war in Syria
- "The Assad regime seems ready to escalate," one analyst says
- Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome
(CNN) -- While the world's attention was focused on Boston and North Korea, the conflict in Syria entered a new phase -- one that threatens to embroil its neighbors in a chaotic way and pose complex challenges to the Obama administration.
What began as a protest movement long ago became an uprising that metastasized into a war, a vicious whirlpool dragging a whole region toward it.
Many analysts believe the United States can do little to influence -- let alone control -- the situation. And it could make things worse. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues against the United States "plunging into the killing fields of Syria ... because it would complicate and exacerbate an already dangerous conflict."
Others contend that if the United States remains on the sidelines, regional actors will fight each other to "inherit" Syria, and hostile states such as Iran and North Korea will take note of American hesitancy. They say inaction has given free rein to more extreme forces.
And in the wake of the strikes against Damascus, apparently by Israeli planes, critics argue that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now more vulnerable than ever and U.S. intervention could help finish him off.
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Republican Sen. John McCain has revived calls for a no-fly zone. And introducing legislation to arm the Syrian rebels in the U.S. Senate on Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said: "There will be no greater strategic setback to Iran than to have the Assad regime collapse, and cause a disruption to the terror pipeline between Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon."
But more than two years since the revolt against al-Assad began, regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia, which collapsed into fiefdoms 20 years ago and has been stalked by anarchy, terrorism and hunger ever since. Except Syria would be worse. Its religious and ethnic fault lines extend across borders in every direction; Somalia's anarchy was largely self-contained. Somalia never had chemical weapons, nor the missiles and modern armor that make Syria one of the most crowded arsenals in the world.
And unlike Syria, Somalia was never central to a titanic struggle between different branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia.
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Given that background, here are five reasons Syria's war suddenly looks more dangerous.
1: Israel and Hezbollah's proxy war
For two years, Israel has looked on with growing anxiety as brutal repression in Syria has become de facto civil war. Now a high-octane game of regional poker is under way. The Israelis have not admitted carrying out the devastating strikes of last week, but U.S. officials tell CNN they have no doubt Israel was responsible.
Why would Israel suddenly become an active participant? While much has been said about President Barack Obama's "red line" -- that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would make him reassess U.S. involvement -- the Israelis have a different threshold: the transfer of advanced missiles to al-Assad's ally, the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
Their main worry, U.S. officials say, was the possible transfer of Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles, whose accuracy would pose a new threat to Israel. A consignment of these ballistic missiles had recently arrived at Damascus' airport. Similarly, the second Israeli strike before dawn Sunday was on a "research facility" near Damascus where weapons destined for Hezbollah were kept.
According to Jane's Intelligence, Iran's Defense Ministry reported the test firing of an upgraded Fateh-110 last year, and the Iranian Aerospace Industries Organization claimed it had a range in excess of 180 miles (300 kilometers.)
Israel's motive was not to degrade the Syrian military. It was about sending al-Assad a message (copied to Iran and Hezbollah): "If you try to raise the regional stakes by passing a new generation of short-range ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, the response will be swift and severe."
Gerges, author of "Obama and the Middle East," told CNN that we are seeing "an open-ended war by proxy. ... On the one hand you have Israel, regional powers and the Western states; on the other hand you have Iran, Hezbollah and Syria."
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Middle East analyst Juan Cole agrees, writing on his blog: "It is not that the Israelis and Hezbollah are in any direct conflict, but they are gradually both becoming more active in Syria on opposite sides. It is an open question how long this process can continue before the conflict does become direct."
One miscalculation could provoke a wider escalation.
The stakes for Hezbollah are enormous. For nearly 30 years, it has been sustained by Iranian and Syrian support. If Syria becomes a Sunni-dominated state, Hezbollah's "rear-base" vanishes, and suddenly it looks more vulnerable to its archenemy Israel, one of whose strategic goals is to counter the growing missile threat from the north.
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Military analysts believe Hezbollah has an arsenal of some 50,000 missiles and rockets, supported by a sophisticated, hardened infrastructure that would be even harder to uproot than during its last conflict with Israel in 2006. Little wonder that Israel has deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities.
Will the Syrians retaliate for the strikes, which they describe as a declaration of war by Israel? To do so would divert resources from the regime's battle for survival. Not to do so would convey an image of weakness in the face of the "Zionist enemy."
Al-Assad has a history of not retaliating against Israel, most notably when the Israelis took out what was purported to be a Syrian nuclear installation in 2007. According to Cliff Kupchan with the Eurasia Group, Israel has calculated that "Bashar al-Assad is incapable of fighting on two fronts, that Iran will keep its powder dry for a possible future conflict over its nuclear program, and that Hezbollah will not attempt significant retribution without approval from its sponsors."
But one risk to Israel is that in weakening the Assad regime, it may strengthen some of the best organized and most potent rebel factions: jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, which has already declared its affiliation with al Qaeda in Iraq.
2: More than ever, it's sectarian
In the early days of the Syrian uprising, people who were anti- and pro-regime shared one common dread: that Syria would descend, Bosnia-style, into sectarian horror. Now, in the fight to prevail, that has become a reality.
Moderates have been sidelined, and despite efforts to revitalize the opposition's political leadership in exile there is still no umbilical cord between the government-in-waiting and the fighters inside Syria.
The Free Syrian Army coexists with a strong Sunni jihadi element, while the regime is mobilizing "irregular" Alawite militia and Hezbollah fighters.
Syria's (largely Sunni) rebels say hundreds if not thousands of (Shia) Hezbollah fighters are now fighting for the Assad regime. Hezbollah's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said last week that his party would not stand by and watch the Assad government fall. Regional analysts believe there is a very real risk that along the poorly marked Syrian-Lebanese border, Sunni jihadists will come up against Hezbollah units, setting off a vicious war-within-a-war.
The Syrian opposition sees Iran and Hezbollah everywhere. The head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman told the newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that "Iranian and Hezbollah officers are running the operations room in the battle for Homs and are controlling the army operations in the city."
He warned of "massacres against the Sunni community living in the besieged areas if the army captures these areas."
Such massacres were reported in the past week in the coastal Sunni enclaves in Baniyas and al-Bayda. The State Department said over the weekend that "regime and shabiha forces reportedly destroyed the area with mortar fire, then stormed the town and executed entire families, including women and children."
3: Al-Assad goes for broke?
After being on the defensive for months, the Syrian regime has recently launched a series of brutal counterattacks against areas controlled by rebel factions, seeking to restore precious lines of communication and reconnect Damascus with other parts of the country. In so doing, it appears Assad has relied even more on the shabiha -- loyalists with an existential stake in the regime's survival.
As veteran Middle East watcher Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has put it: "The Assad regime seems ready to escalate in any way it can to either preserve power or effectively divide the country."
Among the areas where this counteroffensive has been most intense is Daraya, south of the capital, which has been reduced to ruins on the principle that "if we can't control it nor shall you." To the east of Damascus, regime forces have encircled rebels in the Gouta region, relieving the immediate threat to Damascus airport, which is at one end of the critical air bridge between Syria and Iran.
As critical as these areas around Damascus is the town of Qusayr between Homs and the Lebanese border, once home to 50,000 people. Videos uploaded in recent days show the regime pouring artillery fire into the town and conducting airstrikes from above; whole blocks have been demolished. Claims emerged Wednesday from opposition sources of new massacres around the town.
Qusayr sits astride one route to the Syrian coast and another to the Lebanese border. For the rebels, holding Qusayr is important because it's another way of strangling the regime's ability to sustain itself, and it complicates Hezbollah's access to Syria.
The signs are that al-Assad is investing heavily in trying to break the rebels' hold in key parts of south and central Syria, reversing the gains they had made in a series of hard-won victories last year.
Short of forceful foreign intervention, some military analysts argue for tying al-Assad's hands behind his back by providing the rebels with more anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles and a communications infrastructure. More ambitiously, some say the international community should enforce what might be called a "no-move" zone, selectively picking off regime forces from the air or with missiles.
In essence, that's what NATO's mission in Libya became. But it would take considerable airpower and the use of facilities across the region to gain control of the Syrian sky. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said at the end of April: "The U.S. military has the capability to defeat that system (of Syrian air defenses), but it would be a greater challenge, and would take longer and require more resources" than in Libya.
4: Chemical Weapons
For much of last year, Obama's "red line" seemed a largely hypothetical one. But as al-Assad's situation grows more desperate and control of chemical weapons stocks more difficult to guarantee, there are indications that some chemical agents have been used in limited quantities in places like Daraya. The questions are: how much, of what and by whom?
The announcement by a senior U.N. official Monday that rebels may have used sarin gas during an operation near Aleppo in March means this red line is even more difficult to discern. The U.N. commission subsequently said it "has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict."
Establishing "custody" and the systematic use of such weapons is very difficult in the absence of monitors on the ground.
A U.S. State Department official on Monday would say only: "We take any reports of use of chemical weapons very seriously and we are trying to get as many facts as possible to understand what is happening."
But understanding and countering the threat are miles apart. The Pentagon estimated last year it might take 70,000 troops to secure or destroy Syria's massive stockpiles -- and the situation on the ground has deteriorated since then.
In Cordesman's view, "Any U.S. forces that tried to deal with the chemical weapons in Syria through ground raids would present the problem of getting them in, having them fight their way to an objective, taking the time to destroy chemical stocks, and then safely leaving."
5: Players and Puppets: Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan
Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome of its civil war. Most -- and other more distant states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia -- are backing their own factions as well as supporting the "government-in-waiting." Now more than ever they feel the force of that whirlpool.
Iraq's beleaguered Sunni minority is more and more in confrontation with a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad allied to Iran. The Sunni tribes of Anbar and Ramadi have historical connections with their brethren across the border and would welcome a Sunni-dominated government in Syria as a valuable counterbalance to a hostile government at home.
For more than a year, there have been persistent reports of weapons crossing the border to help the Syrian resistance and evidence of co-operation between Syrian and Iraqi jihadists. Resupply convoys headed through Iraq to the Syrian regime have been ambushed in recent months.
In the view of Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, "Iraq is teetering back towards civil war, with direct implications for the investment climate across the country, and deepening geopolitical conflict between Iran and the Sunni monarchies" of the Gulf.
Turkey is also growing alarmed at the prospect of a more "Balkanized" Syria. It already has 322,000 refugees on its soil, according to latest figures from the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, with another 100,000 clamoring to cross.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped his rhetoric in recent days, criticizing the Israeli strikes but reserving his most passionate denunciation for the Assad regime.
"You, Bashar Assad, will pay for this. You will pay heavily, very heavily for showing courage you can't show to others, to babies with pacifiers in their mouths," he told an audience over the weekend.
But Erdogan is struggling to turn indignation into influence. As the International Crisis Group noted in March: Turkey "now has an uncontrollable, fractured, radicalized no-man's-land on its doorstep."
The Jordanians know how that feels. They are trying to cope with 450,000 Syrian refugees -- equivalent to some 7% of the Jordanian population -- growing restless and desperate in makeshift camps. The number in Lebanon has shot up to 455,000, according to the United Nations. In all, the Syrian conflict has generated an extra half million refugees in just two months.
Lebanon -- whose sectarian equation mirrors that in Syria -- cannot help but be dragged into the war next door. Several Salafist sheikhs in Lebanon have declared jihad against the Syrian regime in response to Hezbollah's growing involvement. One of them, Sheikh Ahmed Assir, called on Sunnis in the city of Sidon to form brigades to help the resistance in Qusayr. And rocket fire, apparently from the Free Syrian Army, has landed in Shiite areas around the Lebanese town of Hermel.
A land of bad options
Some critics of the Obama administration say there is a moral imperative to intervene in Syria in the face of slaughter (at least 70,000 Syrians have died so far.) In the Washington Post, former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter has recalled the "shameful" failure to confront genocide in Rwanda.
But Cordesman writes: "Syria has become the land of bad options. The Obama administration has reason to hesitate in intervening."
And Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and is director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, warns that even "a humanitarian intervention will become a nation-building project, as was the case in Iraq."
With the number of internally displaced now put at 4.25 million people, that would be a huge project.
The dream among diplomats a year ago was that a moderate opposition could be brought together with some regime elements to ease al-Assad from power. As the Syrian war threatens to become a regional one, the United States and Russia are dusting off that option, calling for an international conference within weeks that would be attended by both the government and the opposition.
"The alternative is that Syria heads closer to the abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos," said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.