Newlyweds Mikhail and Margarita Nakonechniy kiss in front of barricades on Independence Square in a gesture of support for pro-Europe activists in Kiev, Ukraine, on Saturday, December 21. Protesters have poured into the streets of the Ukrainian capital, angered by their government's move away from the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia.
Editor's note: Joerg Forbrig is a program director and Eastern Europe expert with the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
(CNN) -- It feels like a rerun of the Orange Revolution. Similar to late 2004 when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to protest what they saw as a fraudulent presidential election, mass demonstrations have been taking place ever since the government in Kiev suspended an association and trade agreement with the European Union some days ago.
No less than back then, observers inside and outside the country are stunned by the civic force unleashed. Across the country, Ukrainians have been gathering for Euro Maydans, coined after the Kiev square that is the epicenter of protests now as it was then. Social networks, independent media and street talk are again abuzz with minute-by-minute news, appeals for nonviolence, help offered to protesters and humor ridiculing the powers that be.
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Ukrainians also pin their anger -- and their hopes -- on largely the same protagonists as nearly a decade ago. There is the government of President Victor Yanukovich, whose rigged election in 2004 and rejection of the EU accord now, both times with backing from Russia, blatantly ignored the will of many Ukrainians.
These, in turn, rally behind an opposition led by a motley crew composed of boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, nationalists and, from her prison cell, the erstwhile Orange icon Yulia Tymoshenko. And as back then, the government has started to peddle back, and indications now are that the protesters may succeed with their demands.
Yet not all is déjà vu, and the stakes now seem even higher than during the Orange Revolution. Many in Ukraine feel today that they have reached a final junction. They do not want to miss what may be the last opportunity in many years to come for a principal, some even say civilizational, choice between Europe and Russia, democracy and dictatorship, sovereignty and subordination, prosperity and poverty, modernity and mayhem. Indeed, the contrast between what Ukraine can expect from her Western and Eastern neighbors could not be starker.
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The EU has, over several years, negotiated the most comprehensive association and deep free trade agreements ever, and it is ready to sign these with Ukraine. They require the country to adopt hundreds of EU laws, regulations and standards, and necessitate much-needed reforms of Ukraine's often dysfunctional political, legal and state institutions. In return, the EU would abolish visas for Ukrainian citizens and open its common market of 500 million consumers to Ukrainian companies, resulting in a considerable boost to the country's GDP and prosperity.
While promising to affiliate Ukraine closely with the EU, to reinforce its independence and to benefit its democracy, rule of law and market economy in the long-run, the agreements fall short of a full membership perspective for the country, and they contain very limited assistance to accomplish the painful process of reforms required. Most importantly, however, the EU has been reluctant to include with its offer short-term support to Ukraine's battered economy and finances.
Russia, on the other hand, has used the dire need of Ukraine for immediate cash injections to promote its own integrationist project, the Eurasian Union. This is Vladimir Putin's attempt to bring back former Soviet republics under the Kremlin's hegemony and to restore its erstwhile status as a world power, and it is to be fully functional by 2015.
This anti-EU, which currently comprises only Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, does not demand political, economic and social modernization but is content with the same autocratic and oligarchic status quo that Russia herself preserves. In return, current and would-be members are lured with Russian political backing, financial subsidies and security guarantees, while countries opting against are threatened with debilitating sanctions. In either case, Russia effectively undermines the independence and statehood of its smaller neighbors.
Ukraine, the largest, most strategic and highly symbolic among Russia's neighbors, has experienced this arsenal of Russian sticks and carrots for years -- and the more massively, the closer it moved to signing its EU association and trade agreements. Faced with this choice, the Ukrainian government and society have clearly grown apart.
The former gave in to Russian pressures, mainly drawn by the short-term prospect of financial aid offered by Moscow and only concerned with preserving its political power. The latter has increasingly understood that a free, democratic and prosperous Ukraine is possible only in ever closer, and one day full, integration with the EU. It is this understanding that manifests itself in the demonstrations across the country.
It is now on the EU to seize the moment. It must be no less proactive than it was during the Orange Revolution and engage the Ukrainian government and the protesters in a national dialogue for a way out of the current impasse.
It must clearly state that Ukraine has a perspective of EU membership as per its own founding documents, and it must ready the same support -- political, financial and institutional -- that it has provided to other new democracies on their way to the EU. It must mobilize, directly and through the IMF, the resources for Ukraine to weather its imminent financial collapse, and it must shield the country from likely Russian retaliation, whether economic sanctions, political meddling or worse.
Hundreds of thousands of courageous Ukrainians have handed their country, and Europe, a second chance. It may be the last, and it must not be wasted.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Joerg Forbrig.
Protesters fill Independence Square in Kiev, Ukraine, on Tuesday, December 17.
A girl wearing a traditional Ukrainian wreath attends an opposition rally in Independence Square on December 17.
A young girl stands next to police officers guarding the presidential offices in central Kiev on December 17.
Protesters sit behind wood bricks in Independence Square on December 17. Written on the bricks are names of Ukrainian settlements whose inhabitants are taking part in the demonstrations.
Flowers are stuck on barriers in front of Ukrainian Interior forces guarding Kiev's administrative district on December 17.
Pro-EU activists march in Kiev on December 17.
Pro-EU activists stand guard at barricades guarding a heavily fortified tent camp in Independence Square on December 17.
Activists warm themselves beside a bonfire as they guard barricades at Independence Square on Monday, December 16.
Pro-EU activists cook during a rally in Independence Square on Sunday, December 15.
U.S. Sens. John McCain, center, and Chris Murphy, right, join Ukrainian opposition leader Vitali Klitschko during a mass rally at Independence Square on December 15. McCain told protesters seeking closer ties with Europe, "The free world is with you, America is with you."
An estimated 200,000 pro-EU activists gather during a rally in Independence Square on December 15.
People sing, shout slogans and wave Ukrainian and EU flags during a mass rally in Independence Square on December 15.
Pro-EU activists wave flags around the monument to the founders of Kiev during a rally in Independence Square on December 15.
A couple of pro-EU activists share a tender moment at a tent camp in Kiev on December 15.
Pro-EU activists, one waving the EU flag, gather during a rally in Kiev on December 15.
Smoke rises as Ukrainian protesters continue their anti-government demonstrations in Independence Square on December 15.
A protester shouts slogans and waves a flag of the Batkivshchyna party during a protest near the Ukrainian Security Service building in Kiev on December 15.
Ukrainian opposition supporters gather at a mass rally in Kiev on December 15.
Demonstrators by the thousands rally in Independence Square on Saturday, December 14.
People go through a police line separating the competing rallies of opposition protesters in Independence Square and supporters of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in Kiev on December 14.
Supporters of the president wave flags of the ruling Party of Regions, as well as Ukrainian flags, during a rally on Kiev's European Square on December 14.
Anti-government protesters guard a barricade designed to keep police from evicting them from Independence Square on Friday, December 13.
Protesters stand at a barricade in Kiev on December 13.
Protesters hold Ukrainian national flags as they picket the Ukrainian House during round-table talks between Yanukovych, former presidents and leaders of the opposition on December 13.
Riot police storm barricades set up by pro-EU protesters in Independence Square on Wednesday, December 11.
Riot police move against protesters on Independence Square around 2 a.m. December 11. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed "disgust" over the crackdown.
A protester calls for attention inside Kiev's City Hall after riot police were forced out from blocking the front door on December 11.
Police enter Independence Square on December 11.
Riot police officers block the entrance of Kiev's City Hall as protesters pour water from windows and throw smoke grenades at them on December 11.
A young police officer guards a roadblock on Institutskaya Street near the presidential area in Kiev on December 11.
Protesters who oppose Yanukovych clash with anti-riot police in Independence Square on December 11.
A protester shouts behind riot police standing guard in Independence Square on December 9.
A protester in Kiev slams a toppled monument of Vladimir Lenin on December 8.
Riot police separate pro-EU protesters and supporters of the ruling party during a large rally held in Independence Square on December 8.
Demonstrators shout slogans during the mass rally on December 8.
Thousands of protesters gather in Independence Square on December 8.
Pro-EU activists shout slogans during the rally on December 8. An estimated 100,000 Ukrainians participated.
A young protester shouts slogans near a placard depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin and signed "Fare you well!" during the December 8 rally.
Pro-EU activists gather around a huge poster of Yulia Tymoshenko, the jailed former Ukrainian Prime Minister, on December 8.
Riot police block protesters during the December 8 rally.
A rose, the symbol of the revolution, lies on barricades being built by Pro-EU activists next to the Ukrainian Government building in Kiev on December 8.
A pro-EU activist holds a cut-out paper heart as she faces police at the presidential office in Kiev on December 8.
EU flags and Ukrainian national flags fly above a crowd of pro-EU activists in Independence Square on December 8.
Pro-EU activists shout slogans during the rally in Independence Square on December 8.
Demonstrators gather in Independence Square during the mass rally December 8.
A pro-EU activist offers flowers to police officers at the presidential office in Kiev on December 8.
Anti-government protesters camp in Independence Square early in the morning on December 8.
Protesters on Independence Square demonstrate against Yanukovych and call for a closer relationship to the EU on December 7.
Protesters prepare food at a camp in Independence Square on December 7.
Pro-EU activists attend a rally in Independence Square on December 7.
Orthodox believers, carrying icons and crosses, walk during a religious procession outside the parliament building in Kiev on December 6.
Police stand guard opposite a sea of protesters near the Ukrainian parliament in Kiev on December 3.
Protesters chant slogans outside the parliament in Kiev on December 3.
Protesters gather in front of the parliament on December 3.
Police stand guard outside the parliament on December 3.
Protesters use a bulldozer during clashes with police at the presidential office in Kiev on December 1.
A protester throws stones toward riot police on December 1. The crowd chanted "Revolution" and "Down with the Gang" as it gathered in Independence Square.
A bleeding protester shouts at a police medic after police pushed protesters off the street leading to the presidential administration building on December 1.
Protesters clash with police guarding the presidential administration building on December 1.
A Ukrainian protester throws stones at riot police during clashes outside the president's office on December 1.
Police and protesters look at an injured person near the presidential office on December 1.
Pro-EU demonstrators clash with police near the presidential administration office on December 1.
Demonstrators gather in downtown Kiev on December 1.
Anti-government protesters gather near Shevchenko University on December 1 in Kiev.
A protester injured in clashes with police stands on Independence Square on November 30.
Police officers guard Independence Square on November 30 after dispersing a rally.
Dozens of protesters were wounded in a clash with police in Kiev on November 30.
Ukrainian riot police detain a protester on November 30.
Opposition supporters hold EU flags November 30 as they guard the gates of the Mikhailovsky monastery.
A woman cries during a rally on November 30.
Injured protesters receive medical help in an ambulance after riot police broke up a rally on November 30.
Protesters gather over bonfires November 30.
Opposition supporters shout slogans and wave flags on November 29.
A demonstrator holds a torn portrait of Yanukovych on November 29.
Demonstrators hold hands during a rally on November 29.
Demonstrators take to the streets in the center of Kiev on November 28.
