Palestinians in Gaza celebrate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Tuesday, August 26. After more than seven weeks of heavy fighting, Israel and Hamas agreed to an open-ended ceasefire that puts off dealing with core long-term issues.
Editor's note: Aaron David Miller is a vice president and distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and was a Middle East negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations. Follow him on Twitter. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
(CNN) -- By now it should be painfully obvious that this latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian crisis in Gaza is fundamentally different than its predecessors.
Unlike the two previous rounds in 2008-09 and in 2012, which ended after three weeks and one week, respectively, this round, now in its fourth week, is infinitely more complex. The rapid failure of the cease-fire put in place by Thursday's agreement only emphasizes that fact. Getting to de-escalation, let alone a durable endgame, will be hard. And here are the five reasons why:
1. Hamas, the political/military paradox: One of the reasons the conflict has dragged on for so long is Hamas' anomalous situation. It entered the crisis -- indeed may have helped to trigger it -- because it was weak, financially bankrupt and politically isolated, and thought it could get Israel and the world's attention through violence. This political weakness has now raised the stakes.
Who is Hamas?
Hamas can't stand down without major deliverables that will justify to its supporters and residents of Gaza the death and destruction its rockets have courted. And right now as attacks against Israeli forces attest, the military wing is dominant. Indeed, militarily it has the power to continue the fight. So there's no real urgency to back off without big gains.
Political desperation, combined with military resilience, ensures the conflict will go on. Indeed, Hamas' goal is probably to launch more rockets against Israel the day before the cease-fire is concluded than on the first day the conflict began.
Israel: Cease-fire over, soldier abducted
Hamas denies capturing Israeli soldier
2. Iron Dome buys space and time: Perhaps the most stunning success of this crisis on the Israeli side has been the Iron Dome missile defense system's capacity to neutralize the threat of Hamas' high trajectory weapons. With only three civilian casualties, economic damage that is relatively limited and not that dramatic a change in the routine of most Israelis (at least those who don't live close to Gaza) the anti-missile defense system has reshaped the basic contours of the conflict.
On one hand, Iron Dome has pre-empted or at least delayed the need for a large-scale ground incursion into Gaza. But on the other it has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the political elites and the public the latitude to continue to achieve Israel's objectives.
In short, for Israel, too, there's no real urgency to stand down. With the home front secure, the government needs to worry about two things: Israel Defense Forces casualties (so far apparently tolerable at more than 60 even though that's four times the number in both previous confrontations) and international pressure as a result of the horrific Palestinian civilian death toll in Gaza. And both of these could become magnified in the event Israel decides to launch a massive ground incursion into Gaza.
U.N. losing patience with Israel
Infants face precarious future in Gaza
3. No good mediator: In 2008-09, Israel withdrew its forces and unilaterally declared a cease-fire that held more or less; in 2012, the Egyptians brokered one pretty quickly to end that round. This time around you have plenty of would-be mediators, including the United States, the United Nations and Egypt, all of which were involved in the Thursday agreement. But that agreement reflects the reality that none of these mediators had much influence with Hamas' military wing.
Moreover, all of them misjudged the degree to which Hamas on the ground in Gaza was prepared to end the fight.
There is not a single mediator among them that's trusted by both sides. Egypt -- no longer run by the pro-Hamas Mohamed Morsy -- is bent on squeezing the Islamists and is working closely with Israel. And the United States has no ties or influence with Hamas. And we don't even have a situation where one mediator can work on Israel and party X could mediate with Hamas in a kind of diplomatic tag team. Indeed, the flaws of trying to negotiate a cease-fire by committee were all too apparent in the collapse of the Thursday accord.
4. Expectations, the real problem: Unlike the two previous confrontations or even the second intifada where Israel and Hamas squared off, this crisis is driven by expectations on each side that will be hard, if not impossible, to meet.
Even if the two sides wanted to stand down, they have raised the hopes among their respective publics that can only constrain each of them and prove disappointing to Israelis and Palestinians as well.
Netanyahu wants to avoid a massive ground incursion, yet he's identified an endgame -- demilitarization of Hamas -- that would require the forceful disarming of an organization that isn't going to agree to give up its weapons voluntarily. And the Israeli public, which has backed the current strategy of trying to pummel Hamas into submission, expects an outcome that is more decisive than in previous rounds.
Hamas, on the other hand, seems -- in a cosmic roll of the dice -- to be holding out at all costs and somehow banking that if it does so, Israel will be forced to agree to open up Gaza (or will do so willingly), release Hamas prisoners and expand fishing rights and that Egypt will agree to open up the Rafah crossing.
The more death and destruction in Gaza, the more Hamas needs an explanation at the end of the day to justify the sacrifices and the pain of Gaza's 1.8 million residents. And it's not even clear what the objectives of Hamas' military wing really are. The real tragedy is that the odds against any lasting trade-off of demilitarization for economic freedom seem long indeed without some dramatic change in either Israel's or Hamas' calculations or Hamas' total collapse and defeat.
5. Not enough urgency: It's an inconvenient fact, but the reality is that right now, there doesn't seem to be enough urgency, let alone an imperative for Israel or Hamas to back down. Gaza's public doesn't have much say in the matter when it comes to the Hamas military wing's strategy, and the Israeli public, according to opinion polls, seems enthusiastic about keeping up the pressure. Israel's calculations seem to be to neutralize the tunnel threat and pummel Gaza with air and artillery until Hamas agrees to a cease-fire on Israel's terms.
Hamas wants to survive with its military and political leadership intact, and it hopes that massive Palestinian casualties will galvanize the international community to press Israel to stop and that more IDF deaths will cause Israel to sour on the operation.
So where is this headed? In both previous confrontations, we might have confidently predicted some diplomatic endgame. Not now. For the moment, the focus has shifted from a brief foray into diplomacy back to escalating conflict. The prospects of some kind of an expanded Israeli operation into Gaza are highly likely, with all the casualties that could entail.
What separates this round of the Israel-Hamas battle from the others is that there's no predictable path away from much more bloodshed. And that -- given the tragic loss of life -- is the terrifying truth.
Note: This article was updated to delete references to the capture of an IDF soldier; Israeli authorities now say the soldier was among those killed by a suicide bomber.
Read CNNOpinion's new Flipboard magazine.
Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.
Join us on Facebook.com/CNNOpinion.
Palestinians inspect the damage to a residential building following several late night Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City on August 26.
Gila, center, mother of 4-year-old Israeli boy Daniel Tragerman, sits next to his grave during his funeral near the Israel-Gaza border on Sunday, August 24.
Palestinians run away from debris after a bomb from an Israeli airstrike hit a house in Gaza on Saturday, August 23.
An Israeli soldier smokes a cigarette in a large concrete pipe used as shelter at an army deployment point near the Israeli-Gaza border on Wednesday, August 20.
Light trails made by rockets fired from the Gaza Strip stand out against the night sky on Tuesday, August 19. Despite efforts to come to a peaceful agreement, Gaza militants launched rockets into Israel on Tuesday, and Israel responded with its own rockets.
An injured Palestinian man is helped into the Shifa hospital in Gaza City on August 19.
Police examine the remains of a rocket launched from Gaza that landed near the kibbutz of Yad Mordechay on August 19.
Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike on Gaza City on August 19.
Islam El Masri begins to sort through the rubble of her destroyed home in Beit Hanoun, Gaza, on Thursday, August 14.
Israelis gather in Tel Aviv during a protest August 14 calling on the government and the army to end Palestinian rocket attacks from Gaza once and for all.
Smoke rises in Gaza City after an airstrike on Saturday, August 9.
Israeli soldiers walk past a Merkava tank as they patrol a field near Israel's border with Gaza on August 9.
A Palestinian boy salvages family belongings from the rubble of a four-story building after an airstrike in Gaza City on Friday, August 8.
Israelis flee after a rocket fired from Gaza hit the residential neighborhood of Sderot, Israel, on August 8.
A Palestinian man looks out over destruction in the al-Tufah neighborhood of Gaza City on Wednesday, August 6.
Displaced Palestinians carry their belongings as they leave a United Nations school in Beit Lahiya, Gaza, to return to their homes Tuesday, August 5.
The body of Avrohom Wallis is carried during his funeral in Jerusalem on Monday, August 4. Wallis was killed in what Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld called a "terror attack," when a man drove an earthmover into a bus in Jerusalem.
Israeli soldiers fire a mortar shell toward Gaza from the Israeli side of the border on August 4.
Palestinians remove rubble from a house hit by an airstrike in the al-Shati refugee camp in Gaza City on August 4.
An Israeli drone circles over Gaza City on Sunday, August 3.
A Palestinian man sits in a hospital in Rafah, Gaza, on August 3.
An honor guard caries the coffin of Israeli Lt. Hadar Goldin during his funeral in Kfar-saba, Israel, on August 3. Goldin was thought to have been captured during fighting in Gaza but was later declared killed in action by the Israel Defense Forces.
A Palestinian boy looks for belongings after an airstrike in Rafah on Saturday, August 2.
Israeli soldiers walk to their tank at a staging area near the border with Gaza on August 2.
A young Palestinian carries damaged copies of the Quran from the rubble of the Imam Al Shafaey mosque in Gaza City on August 2.
Palestinians displaced from their houses return to check their homes in Gaza City on Friday, August 1.
An Israeli soldier carries a shell as he prepares a tank along the Israel-Gaza border on Thursday, July 31. Israel called up 16,000 additional reservists, bolstering forces for its fight against Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza.
Smoke rises from a building after an airstrike in Rafah on July 31.
The parents and a sister of Israeli soldier Guy Algranati mourn during his funeral in Tel Aviv on July 31.
U.N. workers remove a donkey injured at a U.N.-run school in Gaza on Wednesday, July 30.
Palestinians walk under the collapsed minaret of a destroyed mosque in Gaza City on July 30.
Palestinians gather leaflets that fell from an Israeli plane on July 30. The leaflets warned residents of airstrikes in Gaza City.
Israelis take cover from a Palestinian rocket attack from Gaza during the funeral of Israeli soldier Meidan Maymon Biton, which was held at a cemetery in Netivot, Israel, on Tuesday, July 29.
Smoke and fire rise above Gaza City after an Israeli airstrike on July 29.
An Israeli soldier prays on the Israeli side of the border with Gaza on July 29 as smoke billows from the only power plant supplying electricity to Gaza.
Near the rubble of their home in Rafah, Palestinian men mourn July 29 for people killed during an airstrike.
A Palestinian man places a portrait of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya on the rubble of Haniya's Gaza City home July 29 after it was hit by an overnight airstrike.
Flares from Israeli forces light up the night sky of Gaza City on July 29.
Israeli soldiers carry the coffin of 2nd Lt. Roy Peles, an infantry officer who was killed in combat, during his funeral in Tel Aviv on Sunday, July 27.
During a 12-hour cease-fire in Gaza City's Shijaiyah neighborhood on Saturday, July 26, a Palestinian man sits atop a car filled with belongings that were salvaged from a destroyed home.
Israeli soldiers watch a bomb explode along the border with Gaza before the 12-hour cease-fire on July 26.
As her brother-in-law Mazen Keferna weeps on the ground, Manal Keferna cries upon discovering her family home destroyed by airstrikes in Beit Hanoun on July 26.
Palestinians dig a body out of the rubble of a destroyed house in Gaza during the cease-fire on July 26.
An Israeli soldier mourns at the grave of reserve Master Sgt. Yair Ashkenazy during his funeral at the military cemetery in Rehovot, Israel, on Friday, July 25. Ashkenazy was killed during operations in northern Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces reported.
A Palestinian man cries after bringing a child to the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahiya on Thursday, July 24. The child was wounded in 
Israeli soldiers carry a wounded soldier to a helicopter near the Israel-Gaza border on July 24.
Israeli soldiers patrol the Israel-Gaza border on July 24.
A trail of blood is seen in the courtyard of the school that was hit July 24 in the Beit Hanoun district of Gaza.
An Israeli tank fires toward Gaza from a position near Israel's border on July 24.
A photograph 
A woman in Philadelphia passes by a departure board that shows US Airways Flight 796, scheduled to fly to Tel Aviv, has been canceled on Tuesday, July 22. The Federal Aviation Administration told U.S. airlines they were temporarily prohibited from flying to the Tel Aviv airport after a Hamas rocket exploded nearby.
Smoke and fire from the explosion of an Israeli strike rise over Gaza City on July 22.
A relative of Israeli soldier Jordan Ben-Simon mourns over his coffin during his funeral in Ashkelon, Israel, on July 22.
Palestinians inspect destroyed buildings and collect usable items after an Israeli air assault on July 22.
Israeli soldiers weep at the grave of Israeli Sgt. Adar Barsano during his funeral Sunday, July 20, in Nahariya, Israel.
Palestinian medics carry a body in Gaza's Shaja'ia district on July 20.
Israeli soldiers give medical care to soldiers who were wounded during an offensive in Gaza on July 20.
A Palestinian boy injured during an Israeli airstrike is taken to the hospital by his father in Gaza City on July 20.
Palestinians flee their homes as Israeli troops focus their firepower on the Gaza town of Shaja'ia on Sunday, July 20. The shelling and bombing killed at least 60 people and wounded 300, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Smoke rises after an Israeli missile hit Shaja'ia on July 20.
A Palestinian child walks on debris from a destroyed house following an overnight Israeli strike in Beit Lahiya on Saturday, July 19.
An explosion rocks a street in Gaza City on Friday, July 18.
Israeli ground forces move to the Gaza border on July 18.
Israeli soldiers patrol near the Israel-Gaza border on July 18.
A relative mourns July 18 during the funeral of Rani Abu Tawila, a Palestinian who was killed in an Israeli attack on Gaza City.
A Palestinian demonstrator, protesting Israel's military operation in Gaza, runs through smoke July 18 during clashes with Israeli soldiers at the entrance of the Ofer prison in the West Bank village of Betunia.
This image, made from video shot through a night-vision scope, was released by the Israeli military on July 18. It shows troops moving through a wall opening during the early hours of the ground offensive in Gaza.
Children stare as Palestinians flee Khan Yunis, Gaza, to safe areas July 18.
An Israeli tank fires a shell into Gaza on July 18.
A Palestinian carries a gas cylinder salvaged from the rubble of an apartment building after it was hit by Israeli fire on July 18.
An Israeli reservist prays July 18 near the Gaza border by Sderot, Israel.
Flare smoke rises into the Gaza City sky on Thursday, July 17.
