Pivit combines polls, predictive analysis, wagering markets and social sentiment to create odds on the outcome of world events
The platform said Trump has a 1% chance to win the GOP nomination, even though in the last CNN/ORC poll on June 28, 12% of Americans surveyed said they would like Trump for the nomination
Here’s one 1% figure billionaire Donald Trump likely wants no part of: His odds of winning the Republican nomination for President.
That’s according to a new analysis performed by an interactive data collection platform called Pivit, which combines polls, predictive analysis, wagering markets and social sentiment to create odds on the outcome of world events, the company says. The co-founders of Pivit also co-founded Intrade, a similar company that was a web-based trading exchange for political futures.
CNN has a partnership with Pivit to predict outcomes of the 2016 presidential election.
The platform said that the real estate mogul and Republican presidential candidate has a 1% chance to win the GOP nomination, even though in the last CNN/ORC poll on June 28, 12% of Americans surveyed said they would like Trump for the nomination, second among all GOP contenders.
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The data also concluded that Trump has an 85% chance of being included in the first GOP debate hosted by Fox News in Cleveland next month, but that the percentage has decreased.
The chances that Trump makes it to the CNN-hosted debate in California in September are lower, at 70%.
However, by Pivit’s predictions, if the numbers don’t change, Trump will be included in both debates, ranking as 8th and 9th for each, respectively.
Pivit says the public is skeptical that Trump will continue to tolerate the financial losses that have ensued since he announced his campaign, which included incendiary remarks about Mexican immigrants.
“The number of Trump sponsors also shorting the Trump brand is growing: NBC Universal, Univision, Televisa, Macy’s, NASCAR, Serta, ESPN, PGA of America and others have either terminated or are evaluating their commercial deals,” the release said. “At the same time, the public’s confidence that he is willing to take continued pain has decreased just as quickly.”
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“The lesson here? At the potential expense of future branded skyscrapers, Mr. Trump may want to slow his roll,” the statement said.