Even if this turns out not to be so, the fear that terrorists are hiding amongst refugees will increase and will be used by anti-immigrant politicians.
That refugee or migrant movements might include terrorists has always been a threat and a worry to countries of immigration. It is part of the risk of welcoming strangers, just as we all take calculated risks when we allow people we don't know well into our homes.
How will the presence of terrorists among the refugees -- real or now increasingly feared -- affect the willingness of Europeans to welcome refugees?
Many who before Friday were willing to allow refugees into their countries and to help them will be given pause. Anti-immigrant movements and politicians such as Marine Le Pen in France and Donald Trump in the United States will seize the opportunity to create momentum against immigration and block border entry.
Is this the solution?
Even before Friday, European countries that were previously welcoming, such as Sweden and Germany, were pulling back. But sealing borders with razor wire and having police on trains requesting papers are the kinds of images Europeans will surely shrink from, given their history -- and such actions will not prevent desperate refugees from finding ways to enter Europe.
Nor can the United States and the rest of the world stand by and watch while ratcheting up their anti-immigrant rhetoric. The United States and Europe must work together to find reasonable ways to manage the current refugee flow into Europe and to utilize more creative and effective intelligence to monitor terrorist plans.
The fact is Europe will not be able to quickly and easily absorb hundreds of thousands of refugees, and open-door policies that create impetus for migrants to leave their countries will lead to more desperate journeys and deaths at sea, especially now the winter storm season is coming upon us.
This is why now is the moment for a truly global effort to address the refugee crisis, a movement not necessarily led by Europe and the United States but one that still should be well supported by them.
First, it is essential to direct that support to Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, as spillover from the conflict in Syria and Iraq overwhelms them, both in terms of their hosting more than 4 million refugees and in dealing with bomb attacks. This past week, Lebanon also experienced a horrific bomb attack by ISIS, when 43 people were killed in Beirut,
with much less of a global outpouring of sympathy.
The EU has pledged a 3 billion euro fund to support these countries. This is a good start, but it is only in the planning and pledging stage.
Second, global efforts to address the refugee crisis can involve other, more distant, countries, which are able and should be induced to take refugees. Countries such as Brazil, which accepts refugees from Syria, should be lauded and supported in their efforts to welcome asylum seekers and resettle refugees. Indeed some Syrians have already recognized the Brazilian opportunity and headed that way.
Countries willing to take refugees -- and the communities within these countries, willing to host them -- must be recognized and rewarded.
The attacks in Paris on Friday are yet another wake-up call. Until the conflicts in the Middle East are resolved, the spillover-- both in the form of terrorist attacks and refugee flows -- will be felt much farther afield.
Paris is the latest target, but it will not be the last. Refugees and the conflict that displaces them are a global problem and need a global response.