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CQ ROUNDTABLE
GOP Incumbents' Fate May Hinge on Debate

By Phil Duncan

Among the millions of Americans watching the coming presidential debates, one group will have a particularly keen interest: The 10 GOP incumbents locked in the most hotly competitive House elections in states where President Clinton enjoys a comfortable lead, according to current public opinion polls.

These Republicans at risk of losing will be yearning for a strong showing in the debates by their ticket-leader, Bob Dole - a performance that could energize conservatives, lure undecideds and swell GOP turnout enough to sustain the House Republican majority. But if Dole proves just a middling debater, the last apparent barrier to Clinton's re-election is gone, and these already highly vulnerable GOP incumbents likely will have to swim against the tide of a double-digit Clinton victory in their districts. With the election more than a month away, it is risky to speculate on presidential coattails, but a high Clinton tide surely would complicate the GOP's quest to retain control of the House.

The 10 shaky Republican incumbents are in states where recent public polling shows Clinton leading Dole by more than 10 points, according to trial-heat data compiled by the Hotline political news service. The districts are scattered across the nation - three in the East, three in the Midwest, four in Pacific Coast states - reflecting the breadth of Clinton's current advantage in the presidential contest. The GOP incumbents who sit uneasily in these districts are: James B. Longley Jr. (Maine 1st); Peter G. Torkildsen (Massachusetts 6th); Bill Martini (New Jersey 8th); Michael Patrick Flanagan (Illinois 5th); Greg Ganske (Iowa 4th); Dick Chrysler (Michigan 8th); Frank Riggs (California 1st); Jim Bunn (Oregon 5th); Rick White (Washington 1st); and Randy Tate (Washington 9th).

In 1992, Clinton carried all 10 of these districts, and in several of them his victories were lopsided: He beat President George Bush by 18 points in Illinois' 5th and in California's 1st, for instance, and in Washington, Clinton won the 1st by nine points and the 9th by 11 points. Nine of the 10 districts elected Democrats to the House in 1992, and even in the big GOP year of 1994 Democratic House candidates were competitive in all 10 districts: Republicans won two of the districts with 50 percent, one with 51 percent, four with 52 percent, two with 53 percent and one with 54 percent.

Only one of the 10 Republican incumbents has succeeded in adverse top-of-the-ticket circumstances: In 1992, Torkildsen won Massachusetts' 6th with 55 percent, as the district went for Clinton by 12 points in presidential voting. But Torkildsen's victim was Democratic Rep. Nicholas Mavroules, then under indictment. Seeking a second term in 1994, Torkildsen slipped to 51 percent, the worst showing of any GOP incumbent in the country. This year, New England is expected to be one of Dole's weakest regions.

Two more of the 10 Republicans - California's Riggs and Michigan's Chrysler - have experience campaigning with a losing presidential candidate, but for both the outcome was unhappy. In 1992, when Riggs was a freshman House incumbent trying for a second term, Bush's campaign did a disappearing act in California, and voters in the 1st showed Riggs the door in favor of Democratic challenger Dan Hamburg. Riggs beat Hamburg in a 1994 rematch.

Now, as Riggs tries again to win two in a row, he shares the ticket with Dole, who is faring little better than Bush in the Golden State. Similarly, four years ago in Michigan, Chrysler narrowly failed to wrest the 8th from Democratic Rep. Bob Carr, as Bush lost the district to Clinton. Chrysler took the 8th when Carr left it in 1994, but if he holds it this year it will be no thanks to Dole, who was stuck below 30 percent in one early September sampling of state opinion.

Besides Torkildsen, Riggs and Chrysler, the other seven GOP incumbents are "pure" freshmen in their second House campaigns. All of them have drawn Democratic challengers of note. In Illinois' 5th, for example, Democratic state Rep. Rod Blagojevich has a good chance of defeating Flanagan, who won in 1994 solely because an ethics quagmire sucked in veteran Democratic Rep. Dan Rostenkowski. Democrats aim to retake Maine's 1st with former Portland Mayor Tom Allen; a mid- September survey by the Mason-Dixon polling firm (margin of error, plus or minus 4 percentage points) showed Allen leading Longley 45 percent to 36 percent. Torkildsen is in a rematch with Democrat John Tierney, who got 47 percent of the vote in 1994. In Washington's September primary, Tate stood out as the weakest of several vulnerable GOP incumbents in the state, because he was outpolled by his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Adam Smith. Washington lists candidates from both parties on the same ballot and Smith took 50 percent of the vote to Tate's 47 percent.

Some of these Democrats seem sure to occupy seats in the 105th Congress, and more of their party colleagues will see their chance of success improve unless Dole's presidential campaign shows a burst of October momentum.

Copyright © 1996, Congressional Quarterly Inc. All rights reserved.

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