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CQ ROUNDTABLE
GOP Incumbents' Fate May Hinge on Debate
By Phil Duncan
Among the millions of Americans watching the coming
presidential debates, one group will have a particularly keen
interest: The 10 GOP incumbents locked in the most hotly
competitive House elections in states where President Clinton
enjoys a comfortable lead, according to current public opinion
polls.
These Republicans at risk of losing will be yearning for a
strong showing in the debates by their ticket-leader, Bob Dole -
a performance that could energize conservatives, lure undecideds
and swell GOP turnout enough to sustain the House Republican
majority. But if Dole proves just a middling debater, the last
apparent barrier to Clinton's re-election is gone, and these
already highly vulnerable GOP incumbents likely will have to
swim against the tide of a double-digit Clinton victory in their
districts. With the election more than a month away, it is risky
to speculate on presidential coattails, but a high Clinton tide
surely would complicate the GOP's quest to retain control of the
House.
The 10 shaky Republican incumbents are in states where
recent public polling shows Clinton leading Dole by more than 10
points, according to trial-heat data compiled by the Hotline
political news service. The districts are scattered across the
nation - three in the East, three in the Midwest, four in
Pacific Coast states - reflecting the breadth of Clinton's
current advantage in the presidential contest. The GOP
incumbents who sit uneasily in these districts are: James B.
Longley Jr. (Maine 1st); Peter G. Torkildsen (Massachusetts
6th); Bill Martini (New Jersey 8th); Michael Patrick Flanagan
(Illinois 5th); Greg Ganske (Iowa 4th); Dick Chrysler (Michigan
8th); Frank Riggs (California 1st); Jim Bunn (Oregon 5th); Rick
White (Washington 1st); and Randy Tate (Washington 9th).
In 1992, Clinton carried all 10 of these districts, and in
several of them his victories were lopsided: He beat President
George Bush by 18 points in Illinois' 5th and in California's
1st, for instance, and in Washington, Clinton won the 1st by
nine points and the 9th by 11 points. Nine of the 10 districts
elected Democrats to the House in 1992, and even in the big GOP
year of 1994 Democratic House candidates were competitive in all
10 districts: Republicans won two of the districts with 50
percent, one with 51 percent, four with 52 percent, two with 53
percent and one with 54 percent.
Only one of the 10 Republican incumbents has succeeded in
adverse top-of-the-ticket circumstances: In 1992, Torkildsen won
Massachusetts' 6th with 55 percent, as the district went for
Clinton by 12 points in presidential voting. But Torkildsen's
victim was Democratic Rep. Nicholas Mavroules, then under
indictment. Seeking a second term in 1994, Torkildsen slipped to
51 percent, the worst showing of any GOP incumbent in the
country. This year, New England is expected to be one of Dole's
weakest regions.
Two more of the 10 Republicans - California's Riggs and
Michigan's Chrysler - have experience campaigning with a losing
presidential candidate, but for both the outcome was unhappy. In
1992, when Riggs was a freshman House incumbent trying for a
second term, Bush's campaign did a disappearing act in
California, and voters in the 1st showed Riggs the door in favor
of Democratic challenger Dan Hamburg. Riggs beat Hamburg in a
1994 rematch.
Now, as Riggs tries again to win two in a row, he shares the
ticket with Dole, who is faring little better than Bush in the
Golden State. Similarly, four years ago in Michigan, Chrysler
narrowly failed to wrest the 8th from Democratic Rep. Bob Carr,
as Bush lost the district to Clinton. Chrysler took the 8th when
Carr left it in 1994, but if he holds it this year it will be no
thanks to Dole, who was stuck below 30 percent in one early
September sampling of state opinion.
Besides Torkildsen, Riggs and Chrysler, the other seven GOP
incumbents are "pure" freshmen in their second House campaigns.
All of them have drawn Democratic challengers of note. In
Illinois' 5th, for example, Democratic state Rep. Rod
Blagojevich has a good chance of defeating Flanagan, who won in
1994 solely because an ethics quagmire sucked in veteran
Democratic Rep. Dan Rostenkowski. Democrats aim to retake
Maine's 1st with former Portland Mayor Tom Allen; a mid-
September survey by the Mason-Dixon polling firm (margin of
error, plus or minus 4 percentage points) showed Allen leading
Longley 45 percent to 36 percent. Torkildsen is in a rematch
with Democrat John Tierney, who got 47 percent of the vote in
1994. In Washington's September primary, Tate stood out as the
weakest of several vulnerable GOP incumbents in the state,
because he was outpolled by his Democratic opponent, state Sen.
Adam Smith. Washington lists candidates from both parties on the
same ballot and Smith took 50 percent of the vote to Tate's 47
percent.
Some of these Democrats seem sure to occupy seats in the
105th Congress, and more of their party colleagues will see
their chance of success improve unless Dole's presidential
campaign shows a burst of October momentum.
Copyright © 1996, Congressional Quarterly Inc. All rights
reserved.
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