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The Voters' Message: Stay The Course
By Stuart Rothenberg (Nov. 6) -- Going into the November elections, voters gave two very different signs about what they would do. On the one hand, national polls showed that when they were asked whether they planned to vote for the Republican and Democratic candidate for Congress -- the so-called generic House ballot question -- a clear majority said they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress. On the other hand, they also showed satisfaction with the status-quo. Americans have been more optimistic about the future, more satisfied with the economy and generally more approving of Congress as an institution. Those views benefited all incumbents, since they could take credit for the state and direction of the country. Right up until the returns started to roll in, we were unsure which road the voters would take. Would they vote for Democrats, as they said they intended to do? Or would they support incumbents, as they also suggested they would do? In the end, the status-quo won out. About a dozen and a half Republicans won with 50 percent of the vote, squeezing to victory because voters were more content than they had been in years. But make no mistake about it. If most of the close House races had gone against the Republicans, instead of for them, the GOP could have easily lost 15-20 seats and we would have a very different view of the elections. Among those House Republicans who won with only about 50 percent of the total vote are:
So if you think this election was some sort of huge mandate for either Bill Clinton or the GOP Congress, think again. Clinton won big by co-opting the Republican agenda and out-campaigning Bob Dole. And the Republicans held on to Congress because voters were generally satisfied with the way things are going. That's a major departure from the last two cycles, when voters were angry about politics and politicians and preferred almost any challenger to any incumbent. Many of the Republican House members who lost had been living on borrowed time. Congressman like Michael Flanagan (IL), Peter Blute (MA), Fred Heineman and (NC), Randy Tate (WA) and Martin Hoke (OH) represented Democratic districts that were ripe for a return to their traditional partisan ways. But most incumbents, Republican and Democratic alike, were able to tap the public's mood to earn another two years in Washington. And that's what the House elections of 1996 were all about. As for the presidential race, Bill Clinton's huge victory -- and it really was massive -- is a reflection of the economy, the public mood, his campaign strengths and Bob Dole's weaknesses. But Dole and the Republicans clearly surged in the final days, with help from Ross Perot and Bill Clinton. The ethics issue ultimately broke against the president and his party, probably helping Dole and GOP congressional candidates up and down the ballot. While Dole never mined the issue effectively, Perot did. And the Texas billionaire's attacks on White House fund raising and ethics almost assuredly pushed normally Republican voters back into the GOP column, possibly rescuing the House for them.
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