Newt's Influence Slips Away

Gingrich worked the phone hard to save his job, but no matter what the outcome of the vote for Speaker, his influence is already greatly diminished

By Richard Lacayo

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Gingrich knows that a lot of bad news in Washington flies on trial balloons. So he sensed that something serious might be starting last Monday when New York Representative Michael Forbes, a longtime Gingrich supporter, released himself into the atmosphere. Charging that Gingrich's effectiveness had been fatally undermined, Forbes became the first G.O.P. House member to call publicly for him to hand over his gavel. "He'll be a Speaker who's weighed down," Forbes said. He claimed that two dozen or so other House Republicans were thinking the same way. If just 20 Republicans held back their votes, Gingrich would be finished. Prominent conservatives like columnist William Safire and Judge Robert Bork were glumly suggesting that Gingrich would be doing the party a favor if he stepped aside. With every hope of prolonging the agony, Democrats were clamoring for a postponement of the vote for Speaker until after all the facts were made public. Every one of them remembered how Gingrich tormented Speaker Jim Wright until he resigned over ethics charges in 1989.

With early but clear signs of a meltdown flashing around them, Gingrich and the rest of the House leadership, including majority leader Dick Armey and House whip Tom DeLay, went into the final phase of a furious attempt at damage control. Within a day of Forbes' announcement, Paxon and Armey had organized a giant conference call connecting more than 100 House Republicans. From his home in Marietta, Georgia, Gingrich connected by phone on Tuesday morning with Armey in Washington. "I need an honest appraisal," Gingrich told him. "How does it look?"

For the first time, Gingrich was contemplating the possibility of withdrawing. Armey, whom Gingrich relies on for the hard truth, told the Speaker he had better start phoning House Republicans to make his case. Gingrich started calling them one by one. "He's been so apologetic," says a source familiar with the calls. "He's been promising that this will never happen again."

Even as Gingrich was dialing for votes, the letter came from Goss and Schiff, the G.O.P. members of the ethics subcommittee. For Republicans looking for a life preserver, it was just that. But the note, as well as press reports that the subcommittee had already decided on a reprimand for Gingrich, led investigator Cole to issue an angry statement reminding everyone that "the ethics rules do not permit public comment on the work of the committee until we are convened in an open session." All the same, Schiff insists he did nothing improper. "The letter may be unusual, but so is the situation," he says. "There was a vote coming up for the speakership."

Even if Gingrich is re-elected this week, the Newt who taps the gavel when Congress starts business later this month won't be the same man who hauled an oversize mallet to the Speaker's chair two years ago. As Gingrich goes into relative eclipse, restive committee chairmen are ready to reassert the independence that he once tried to curb. A week ago, Representative Bill Archer of Texas, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, which will be the first stopping point for budget, tax and Medicare legislation, went to the White House to meet one-on-one with the President. Washington veterans were reminded of the days when Ronald Reagan would sometimes bypass Speaker Tip O'Neill to horse-trade directly with Ways and Means chairman Dan Rostenkowski. "A lot of the membership would no longer make the argument that Newt is indispensable," says an aide to a House Republican leader. Still there is no obvious replacement for the man who is the most creative and energetic leader his party has produced in a generation, and whose vision gave the Republicans control of the House for the first time in 40 years--a reality that undoubtedly weighs on his colleagues as they ponder whether to unseat him.

Newt's troubles will hasten the power shift from House Republicans to their counterparts in the Senate, where majority leader Trent Lott is expected to spearhead the Republican agenda in the next Congress. Since November, Lott and Clinton have several times discussed their common desire not to allow the investigations of either Gingrich or the White House to bring the substantive work of the next Congress to a halt. The big question is whether either man can control his own partisans in the House, like Democratic whip David Bonior or Republican Dan Burton, chairman of the House Government Reform and Oversight Committee, which will look into just about everything labeled Bill and Hillary. If Democrats insist on a full-bore pursuit of Gingrich, Republicans will seek the blood of the Clintons later this year or next. Washington is not so different from ancient Rome. It may talk a lot about ethics, but revenge is the virtue it understands best.

--Reported by James Carney and Karen Tumulty/Washington

The New Power Centers

Even before his re-election was imperiled, Gingrich was forced to shed a share of the power that made him the most redoubtable Speaker since the turn of the century. No longer will Gingrich speak as the undisputed voice of his party in the House. So who stands ready to fill the vacuum?

Other leaders,like majority chief Dick Armey, are moving out from under Gingrich's shadow. Armey has taken firm hold of day-to-day operations. Some fear that his dogmatism could make it difficult to strike deals. But his tireless campaigning for members--and the $3.1 million he raised --may have bought a lot of loyalty

Committee chairs,like Texan Bill Archer of Ways and Means will have more leeway to pursue their own agendas; Archer has already sat down with the President and plans more one-on-ones at the White House

Moderates like New York Congressman Sherwood Boehlert find their leverage has increased as the Republican majority has decreased; Gingrich needs his vote, and those of 30 or so of his like-minded confreres, more than ever

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