About the Tracking Polls

Previous Polls

• October 23-November 2
• October 13-23
• October 3-13
• September 21-October 2
• September 11-22
• September 2-12

Interviews with 1,573 likely voters, conducted November 2-3, 1996. Note that the margin of error has changed from plus or minus three percentage points to plus or minus 2.5 points.

Today's results show only small changes in the election, with Bill Clinton's share of the vote just above the 50 percent mark and Bob Dole's strength still in the mid-30's. If the election were held today, Clinton would win 51 percent of the vote, compared to 35 percent for Dole and 8 percent for Perot. Six percent are undecided on the eve of the election. If many of those undecided voters vote for Dole or Perot, the final election results could be closer than today's numbers indicate.

This is not a prediction of the election's outcome. The tracking poll will be conducting interviews up until the last possible moment and will release another figure very late on Monday night.

Suppose that the 1996 presidential election were being held today and it included Bill Clinton and Al Gore as the Democratic candidates, Bob Dole and Jack Kemp as the Republican candidates, and Ross Perot and Pat Choate as the Reform Party candidates. Would you vote for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, the Democrats -- Bob Dole and Jack Kemp, the Republicans -- or Ross Perot, the Reform Party candidate? If undecided, as of today, do you lean toward Clinton and Gore, the Democrats, Dole and Kemp, the Republicans, or Perot and Choate, the Reform Party candidates?

Likely Voters
Clinton Dole Perot	10/25-26 52% 35% 8%	10/26-27 49% 37% 7%	10/27-28 51% 35% 7%	10/28-29 49% 35% 11%	10/29-30 51% 35% 10%	10/30-31 52% 34% 10%	10/31-11/1 50% 37% 7%	11/1-2 50% 37% 7%	11/2-3 51% 35% 8%

Question to Perot voters: Who would be your second choice for President -- Dole or Clinton?

Likely Voters
Clinton Dole	10/25-26 55% 38%	10/26-27 53% 39%	10/27-28 55% 36%	10/28-29 55% 38%	10/29-30 56% 39%	10/30-31 55% 38%	10/31-11/1 53% 39%	11/1-2 54% 38%	11/2-3 54% 38%

Is there any chance you would vote for Bill Clinton/Bob Dole/Ross Perot in the November election, or is there no chance whatsoever that you would vote for him?

Likely Voters
Bill Clinton Plan to vote for him Some chance No chance whatsoever	9/11-13 51% 14% 35%	10/11-12 56% 10% 34%	11/2-3 51% 10% 39%

Next, I will read off the names of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him.

Likely Voters
Bill Clinton Favorable Unfavorable	10/15-16 58% 38%	10/16-17 58% 38%	10/17-18 61% 34%	10/18-19 58% 37%	10/19-20 59% 36%	10/30-31 60% 37%	10/31-11/1 59% 37%	11/1-2 58% 37%	11/2-3 57% 38%

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district -- the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate? (IF UNDECIDED: Do you lean more toward the Democratic party's candidate or the Republican party's candidate?)

Likely Voters
Democratic Republican	10/25-26 50% 43%	10/26-27 49% 44%	10/27-28 50% 42%	10/28-29 48% 45%	10/29-30 50% 45%	10/30-31 51% 44%	10/31-11/1 49% 46%	11/1-2 50% 44%	11/2-3 51% 43%

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Would do a better job handling the economy:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/25-26 46% 31% 16% 2%

10/26-27 43% 32% 16% 2%

10/27-28 45% 30% 15% 3%

10/28-29 45% 30% 18% 2%

10/29-30 44% 31% 20% 1%

10/30-31 45% 29% 20% 2%

10/31-11/1 43% 32% 17% 2%

11/1-2 45% 30% 18% 2%

11/2-3 45% 30% 18% 2%

Would do a better job handling foreign affairs:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/25-26 49% 39% 4% 1%

10/26-27 47% 40% 3% 3%

10/27-28 49% 39% 3% 3%

10/28-29 49% 39% 4% 2%

10/29-30 49% 39% 5% 2%

10/30-31 49% 39% 5% 2%

10/31-11/1 48% 40% 5% 2%

11/1-2 48% 40% 4% 2%

11/2-3 47% 41% 4% 2%

Shares your views on the size and role of government:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/25-26 42% 33% 13% 5%

10/26-27 41% 34% 12% 4%

10/27-28 43% 32% 13% 3%

10/28-29 40% 34% 15% 4%

10/29-30 40% 34% 14% 6%

10/30-31 42% 32% 15% 5%

10/31-11/1 41% 34% 13% 5%

11/1-2 42% 33% 14% 4%

11/2-3 42% 33% 14% 5%

Would provide the best moral leadership for the country:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/25-26 36% 44% 11% 4%

10/26-27 35% 43% 9% 6%

10/27-28 36% 43% 8% 5%

10/28-29 34% 46% 9% 5%

10/29-30 34% 46% 10% 5%

10/30-31 36% 43% 11% 5%

10/31-11/1 32% 45% 11% 5%

11/1-2 34% 44% 10% 6%

11/2-3 34% 45% 10% 6%

Would do the best job of handling taxes:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/25-26 41% 33% 15% 4%

10/26-27 39% 33% 15% 4%

10/27-28 40% 33% 15% 4%

10/28-29 38% 37% 16% 4%

10/29-30 39% 35% 17% 5%

10/30-31 41% 30% 19% 4%

10/31-11/1 38% 32% 18% 5%

11/1-2 40% 32% 18% 3%

11/2-3 40% 32% 17% 4%

Can be trusted to keep his promises:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/25-26 35% 36% 9% 13%

10/26-27 32% 36% 9% 14%

10/27-28 33% 35% 10% 13%

10/28-29 31% 37% 12% 13%

10/29-30 33% 35% 12% 14%

10/30-31 35% 34% 13% 12%

10/31-11/1 31% 37% 12% 13%

11/1-2 32% 35% 11% 15%

11/2-3 34% 35% 10% 15%

Other Results:

(Editor's Note: These are results of questions asked as part of some of the daily surveys.)

Oct. 30-31

Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me whether you think each of the following statements better applies to Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot?

Would have an administration with the highest ethical standards:
 

Clinton Dole Perot None*

10/29-30 30% 44% 12% 7%

* = Volunteered response.

It has been suggested that the federal government provide a fixed amount of money for the election campaigns of candidates for the presidency and for Congress, and that all private contributions be prohibited. Do you think this is a good idea or a poor idea?
 

Likely Voters
Good idea Bad idea	10/29-30 65% 27%



All Americans
Good idea Bad idea	1973 56% 28%	1974 67% 27%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

It has been suggested that the federal government provide a fixed amount of money for the election campaigns of candidates for Congress, and that all private contributions be prohibited. Do you think this is a good idea or a poor idea?
 

Likely Voters
Good idea Bad idea	10/29-30 64% 28%



All Americans
Good idea Bad idea	1977 57% 32%	1979 57% 30%	1982 55% 31%	1984 52% 36%	1987 50% 42%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Please tell me how important each of the following factors are to your vote for president this year.... extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not important?

The candidates' education policies:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 40% 45% 12% 3%

The candidates' economic policies:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 35% 53% 9% 2%

The candidates' policies dealing with crime:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 35% 48% 13% 3%

The candidates' campaign finances:
 

Likely Voters
Extremely Very Somewhat Not important	10/29-30 14% 27% 37% 20%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Next, we'd like to rate the ethics of the national DEMOCRATIC Party when it comes to raising campaign money from political contributors. Would you say they are very ethical, moderately ethical, moderately unethical, or very unethical?
 

Likely Voters
Very ethical Moderately ethical Moderately unethical Very unethical	10/29-30 6% 41% 27% 17%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Next, we'd like to rate the ethics of the national REPUBLICAN Party when it comes to raising campaign money from political contributors. Would you say they are very ethical, moderately ethical, moderately unethical, or very unethical?
 

Likely Voters
Very ethical Moderately ethical Moderately unethical Very unethical	10/29-30 8% 50% 23% 9%

Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points

Oct. 28-29

Do you think the policies being proposed by the Republican leaders in the U.S. House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?


Right direction Wrong direction	10/28-29 49% 36%

Do you think the policies being proposed by President Clinton would move the country in the right direction or in the wrong direction?


Right direction Wrong direction	10/28-29 55% 33%

Do you think Bob Dole's proposals for dealing with issues facing the country are too old and out of date, or not?


Yes, too old No, not too old	10/28-29 38% 53%

Oct. 27-28

Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following political officeholders deserves to be re-elected:

The U.S. representative in your congressional district:


Deserves re-election Does not deserve	10/26-27 61% 19%	10/27-28 62% 19%

Most members of the U.S. House of Representatives:


Deserves re-election Does not deserve	10/26-27 53% 25%	10/27-28 55% 26%

Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

If Bill Clinton is re-elected president in November, which party would you prefer to have in control of Congress -- the Republican party or the Democratic party?


Democratic Republican Neither* Doesn't matter*	9/6-8 44% 47% 2% 3%	10/26-27 48% 47% 1% 1%	10/27-28 47% 47% 1% 2%

* = Volunteered response. Sampling error: +/-3 percentage points

Copyright © 1997 AllPolitics All Rights Reserved
Terms under which this information is provided to you