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De-linking human rights and trade policy

Now the most prominent backer of normal trade status for China, Clinton has fully embraced the idea that changing Beijing depends on engaging Beijing. It wasn't always so. He hammered President George Bush in 1992 for vetoing a Democratic bill to link trade status with human rights.

By 1994, however, Clinton had decided linkage had "reached the end of [its] usefulness." "I just don't think taking normal trade status away from them is much of a way of influencing them," he said over the weekend in Denver.

While questioning the efficacy of trade sanctions, Clinton and other MFN supporters argue that revoking normal trade would seriously affect Hong Kong's economy, which they say would weaken its position in relationship to Beijing. Pledging to monitor the Hong Kong situation closely, the president asserts continued trade would "keep Hong Kong's economy strong as it reverts to Chinese sovereignty."

Supporters argue that China has in fact progressed on many important fronts in recent years. In a recent speech to New York's Council on Foreign Relations, National Security Advisor Sandy Berger said that in last two decades there's been "genuine improvements in the lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese -- greater freedom of movement and choice of employment, better schools and housing, improved access to information, and a more open process of choosing local officials."

Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton of Indiana maintains critics haven't truly thought out the ramifications of isolating China. "If we treat China as an enemy, it surely will become an enemy," he has warned.

Clinton has made the U.S. jobs argument less forcefully; estimates are that some 170,000 Americans could lose work with an MFN cut-off. Stepping up to the plate, however, is The Business Coalition For U.S.-China Trade. Comprised of some 1,000 companies, trade associations and farm organization, the group spent $100,000 to lobby Capitol Hill in 1996, while doling out $339,824 in 457 contributions to various congressional candidates.

Finally, most-favored-nation status backers argue for separating the trade debate from the human rights cause altogether. "The singular challenge is to find a bipartisan consensus on what priorities to emphasize, what instruments provide real leverage, and what benchmarks to apply in measuring progress," say Progressive Policy Institute analysts Robert Manning and Steven Nider. "But MFN is the wrong issue."

The Outlook

Eager to woo wavering House members, the White House has released a list of prominent most-favored-nation backers, including former Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George Bush, plus six former secretaries of state and 10 former defense secretaries.

Clinton has also promised to support alternative measures to promote human rights in China, including increased funding for U.S.-supported radio broadcasts in China and other parts of Asia, and to boost funding for the National Endowment for Democracy, which has encouraged local elections in China.

That appears to have won over some MFN skeptics, including Rep. John Porter, chair of the House Human Rights caucus, and a longtime MFN foe, who last week ended his opposition, telling reporters, "I believe we should end this procedure that we should move away from a trade sanction."

Perhaps the biggest indication the House will approve Clinton's policy came from two other key waverers, House Speaker Newt Gingrich and House Majority Leader Dick Armey, who ended weeks of speculation last week and grudgingly backed the administration's position.

Gingrich backed away from an idea to extend MFN for six months only, as a way to monitor China's treatment of Hong Kong, which reverts to Beijing's control June 30. And in a speech at Johns Hopkins, Armey said he too would back MFN.

"In my heart, I would like to oppose most-favored-nation status for China as a way of expressing the deep repugnance I feel toward the tyranny of Beijing," Armey said. But intellectually, I believe that continued normal trade relations are best for the people China today and offer the best prospect for liberating them in years to come."

Earlier in the week, the House Ways and Means Committee voted 34-5 against revoking MFN, another signal that the full House will disapprove the measure.

In the Senate, Majority Leader Trent Lott and his No. 2, Don Nickles of Oklahoma, have yet to take a position on China's trade status. However, senators are likely to consider MFN only if the House votes to disapprove MFN by a veto-proof two-thirds majority.

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