Poll: Good News For Republicans In Election Year
By Keating Holland/CNN
WASHINGTON (April 20) -- If the congressional elections were held today, registered voters would support Democratic candidates and Republican candidates in roughly equal proportions, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.
That's good news for the GOP, since they currently control the House of Representatives, and represents a significant turnaround from several polls conducted earlier this month which showed the Democrats with a double-digit lead.
Also in this poll:
More good news for the Republicans: 58 percent of the general public say that the Republican Congress has been a success since that party first took control of Congress in 1995, the highest that figure has ever been. And unlike 1994, a majority of all Americans believe that most members of the House deserve re-election, good news for incumbents of both parties.
There is also good news, as well as bad news, for House Speaker Newt Gingrich: Americans are evenly split over whether they approve or disapprove of how he has handled his job as Speaker of the House. The bad news is that his approval rating is down a bit from January. The good news is that it is nearly double what it was this time last year.
The survey of 1,007 adult Americans, including 855 registered voters, was conducted April 17-19, 1998 and most questions have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
| Registered Voters' Choice for Congress |
|
| Now | January |
Democratic
Republican |
|
46%
45% | 51%
40% |
Asked of registered voters
Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts |
| Opinion of GOP Congress |
|
| Now | 1997 |
Success
Failure |
|
58%
30% | 46%
41% |
Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-3% pts |
| Do Most Members of Congress Deserve Re-election? |
|
| Now | 1994 |
Yes
No |
|
56%
28% | 39%
45% |
Asked of all Americans
Sampling error: +/-3% pts |
| Gingrich Approval Rating |
|
| Approve | Disapprove |
Now
January
March, 1997 |
|
45%
48%
25% | 46%
41%
63% |
The news is not all bad for Democrats, although they have lost their significant lead over GOP candidates in congressional races.
The public is split over which party can do a better job of keeping the country prosperous, a significant improvement over 1994, when the Democrats lost control of the House. The public also believes that the Democrats can manage the federal government effectively, a big change from 1994. Of course, Americans also feel the same way about the Republican party.
And President Bill Clinton remains personally popular. His approval rating is now at 63 percent. Record numbers of Americans approve of how he is handling the economy and foreign affairs.
And, in a big change from 1994, 47 percent say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who supports Clinton; only 40 percent are more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes Clinton.
| Which Party Can Keep U.S. Prosperous? |
|
| Now | 1994 |
Republicans
Democrats |
|
43%
42% | 48%
38% |
| Can Democrats Manage Government Effectively? |
|
| Now | 1994 |
Yes
No |
|
55%
38% | 34%
62% |
| Can Republicans Manage Government Effectively? |
|
| Now | 1994 |
Yes
No |
|
61%
31% | 42%
53% |
| Approve of How Clinton Is Handling... |
Economy
Foreign Affairs |
|
73%
63% |
| Clinton Approval Rating |
Approve
Disapprove |
|
63%
31% |
| More Likely To Vote For Candidate Who... |
|
| Now | 1994 |
Supports Clinton
Opposes Clinton |
|
47%
40% | 39%
51% |
Clinton's approval rating remains high although a majority of the country believes a number of allegations made against him: 64 percent think it is definitely true or probably true that Clinton had sex with Monica Lewinsky.
Sixty percent think that it is definitely or probably true that he lied under oath about something while president, and 50 percent think the same about allegations that he obstructed justice while in office.
But overall, only 24 percent believe that he did something illegal in any of the actions being investigated by Independent Counsel Ken Starr. More, 47 percent, believe he did something immoral but not illegal.
Even so, 64 percent want the investigations into these allegations to stop now. On the issue of executive privilege, two-thirds believe he should drop his claim of executive privilege and have his aides answer all questions being investigated.
| Allegation That Clinton Had Sex With Monica Lewinsky |
Definitely true
Probably true
Not true |
|
17%
47%
26% |
| Allegation That Clinton Made Advance Toward Kathleen Willey |
Definitely true
Probably true
Not true |
|
13%
35%
39% |
| Allegation That Clinton Lied Under Oath |
Definitely true
Probably true
Not true |
|
21%
39%
31% |
| Allegation That Clinton Obstructed Justice |
Definitely true
Probably true
Not true |
|
17%
33%
42% |
| Allegations That Starr Is Investigating |
Clinton did something illegal
Clinton did something immoral
Clinton did nothing wrong |
|
24%
47%
24% |
| Should Clinton Drop Claim Of Executive Privilege? |
Yes
No |
|
66%
29% |
|
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