South Carolina's Heated Senate Race Pits the Old Against the New
By Karen Foerstel, Marc Birtel, Erika Niedowski and Geoff Earle, CQ Staff Writers
Many observers see South Carolina's Senate race as a political bellwether in the raging battle between the Old South and the New South.
Representing the Old South is five-term Democratic Sen. Ernest F. Hollings. The primary June 9 will decide which Republican gets to carry the flag for the New South.
"Hollings is a bridge from the old, white, Democratic South. If he loses, it will be a hard time to recruit Southern Democrats in the future," said Charles Dunn, a professor of political science at Clemson University. "The Republicans are still the new kids on the block. They still have to prove themselves."
The best way for the GOP to prove itself among Southern voters is to win the support of African-Americans. Black voters gave Hollings the slim margin he needed to win his 1992 re-election bid. But Rep. Bob Inglis, the front-runner for the GOP Senate nomination, has been working hard to attract black voters.
During his six years in the House, Inglis has proved himself a solid conservative, with a 100 percent rating from the Christian Coalition. But Inglis recently drew criticism from many Southern Republicans for his comments about the GOP's "Southern strategy," a plan aimed at attracting disaffected, white Democrats who oppose welfare and affirmative action programs. Inglis called the strategy racially divisive. He also made the controversial and unsuccessful call to remove the Confederate flag from the dome of the state Capitol.
"I don't have a single political adviser who agrees with the comments on Southern strategy. But I believe it's the right thing," Inglis said in an interview. "From the first day, I said this campaign will reach out to black South Carolinians. I believe there is a significant percentage of black South Carolinians who believe in free enterprise and family-forged values. If we extend a warm welcome, they'll join us."
Inglis faces a tough primary challenge from Stephen Brown, the former Greenville County GOP chairman.
Although Inglis has solid conservative credentials, Brown has tried to label him as too conciliatory to Democrats. In March, Brown bought $50,000 worth of television ads slamming Inglis for voting for the 1997 balanced-budget package hammered out between Congress and President Clinton. But Inglis answered back by calling Brown extreme.
"There is room to my right," Inglis said. "There's the militias and there's the cliff. Brown's hanging on by his fingernails."
Brown also has hit Inglis on the issue of term limits. When Inglis first ran for Congress in 1991, he said he would serve only six years. Brown accused Inglis of breaking that promise by seeking another six years in the Senate. But Inglis insisted his pledge applied only to the House.
Brown is lagging far behind Inglis in fundraising. While Inglis has raised $1.2 million and had $623,000 cash on hand as of mid-May, Brown has raised slightly more than $200,000 -- about half of which came from his own wallet. Brown, however, does have an active grass- roots base, which could make the difference if voter turnout is low for the primary. A third Republican, electrician Elton Legrand, is not considered a threat to Inglis or Brown.
Hollings has raised more money than his Republican challengers, and although he does not have a primary, he has already bought $632,000 worth of TV ads that will run until the day before the primary.
The ads, described by most political observers as "tear jerkers," feature two women talking about Hollings' work on breast cancer legislation, his help for veterans and his efforts to protect children from television violence.
In addition to a campaign treasury of more than $2 million, Hollings also has won the unusual endorsement of two prominent Republicans. State Commerce Secretary Bob Royall held a fundraiser for Hollings this month, and North Charleston Mayor Keith Summey has backed him as well.
Hollings was seen as vulnerable in 1992, winning re-election by just 3 percentage points, and most observers have said he was scared into shape and will not let the race escape his grasp.
GOP Likely to Keep 4th
Inglis' open House seat in the 4th District is expected to remain in Republican hands.
State Sen. Mike Fair leads the crowded field of five GOP hopefuls. Attorney Jim Ritchie, former state Rep. Howell Clyborne, former Inglis aide Jim DeMint and marketing representative Frank Raddish are scrambling for a second-place finish in the event of a runoff with Fair. Strongly conservative, Fair has the support of the religious right. Former Christian Coalition leader Ralph Reed is serving as a consultant on his campaign, and well-known conservatives such as Gary Bauer, Phyllis Schlafly and Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes Jr. have endorsed Fair.
A runoff, which would occur June 23 if no candidate got 50 percent, would pit Fair against one of the more moderate Republicans.
Three Democrats are running for the seat: conservative state Rep. Glenn Reese, environmental engineer Neil Sanders and architect Bill McCuen, a former Republican who was trounced by Inglis in the 1992 GOP primary. None is expected to have much chance in the general election.
Republicans may have a tougher time keeping the governor's mansion.
One-term Republican Gov. David Beasley faces a minor primary challenge from Columbia attorney Bill Able. But Beasley's biggest fight will come in November, when he will face Democrat Jim Hodges, a former minority leader in the state House.
Hodges, who has no primary challenger, is pushing for a statewide lottery that he said would raise $200 million annually for education. A majority of South Carolinians back a state lottery, and Hodges' vow to use all the income for education will attract voters.
But the lottery is expected to attract opposition from the religious right. Beasley strongly opposes a lottery and has begun a campaign against video gambling in the state.
The Outlook in Maine
Unlike 1996, when Maine was home to a four-way, open-seat Senate race and a showdown between the AFL-CIO and the GOP, the state is proving to be one of the most dormant of the 1998 campaign.
Democratic Reps. Tom Allen and John Baldacci, the state's House members, are running unopposed in the June 9 primary and, like independent Gov. Angus King, are heavy favorites for re-election in the fall.
In the southern 1st District, Allen has attracted two Republican opponents: state Rep. David Ott and businessman Ross Connelly. Allen, a former mayor of Portland, defeated James B. Longley Jr., a first-term GOP representative at the time, by 10 percentage points in 1996 with the help of hundreds of thousands of dollars in issue ads sponsored by organized labor. (CQ Weekly, p. 1108)
In the sprawling 2nd District, Baldacci will probably face University of Maine Professor Jonathan Reisman, who is unopposed for the GOP nomination. After winning his first term in 1994 with only 46 percent, Baldacci improved two years ago, receiving nearly three-quarters of the vote.
King, the country's only independent governor, seems to have a "Midas touch," with approval ratings as high as 80 percent. Although the former Democrat narrowly was elected four years ago, Republicans and Democrats both had trouble recruiting candidates to take him on in the fall.
On the Democratic side, lawyer Thomas Connolly will face racetrack owner Joseph Ricci and state Rep. Bill Lemke, a write-in candidate, in the primary.
In an odd twist, Longley, the son of James B. Longley Sr., Maine's first independent governor (1975-79), is seeking the GOP nomination. He will run against state Rep. Henry Joy and former state Education Commissioner Leo Martin.
GOP's Hard Times in North Dakota
Republicans in North Dakota have had trouble getting their candidates elected. It has been 12 years since the state had a Republican in the Senate and 20 years since the party held the lone House seat. Even though Republicans continue to dominate state government, the GOP congressional slump seems destined to continue.
One reason is the popularity of the two Democrats on the ballot, first-term Sen. Byron L. Dorgan and three-term Rep. Earl Pomeroy.
Both legislators, along with Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad, fought the GOP leadership and got federal disaster relief for the state after floods in 1997.
Add sizable campaign treasuries to the members' popularity and both are favored to win in November.
Dorgan had nearly $900,000 cash on hand as of March 31; Pomeroy had more than $115,000. Neither has primary opposition.
In November, Dorgan is likely to face Republican state Sen. Donna Nalewaja, who has the state party's endorsement but still must win the primary against Larry D. Solar. Nalewaja admits that challenging Dorgan is an uphill battle, and on the campaign trail, she calls the contest a "Donna vs. Goliath" race.
In the House race, Pomeroy will face state Economic Development Director Kevin Cramer, the 1996 GOP nominee. Two years ago, Cramer argued that North Dakota was being short changed in Congress because the entire delegation was in the Democratic minority. That argument fell short, as Cramer lost 55 percent to 43 percent and was outspent more than 2-to-1.
Cramer had not planned to run for office this year, but he felt pressured to do so after a yearlong effort by GOP leaders failed to find any other credible opponent for Pomeroy.
Arkansas Senate Runoff
Former Rep. Blanche Lambert Lincoln was able to parlay her image as a relative "fresh face" in Arkansas into an unexpectedly strong showing in the Democratic Senate primary May 19th against a rival who has spent a career in politics.
Lincoln won 45 percent of the vote, not enough to avoid a runoff with the second-place finisher, Attorney General Winston Bryant, who took 27 percent. That performance, coupled with an edge in fundraising, makes Lincoln the candidate with momentum in the June 9 runoff. The winner will face Republican state Sen. Fay Boozman.
In Virginia, Calm Sets In
In recent years, Virginia has been home to fierce Senate and governor's races, but this year appears tranquil.
More than half of Virginia's House incumbents are unopposed, and the entire delegation appears secure.
A fight is brewing in the 8th District, which includes the suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria, near Washington, D.C.
Two Republicans are battling to challenge four-term Democratic Rep. James P. Moran. Moran's first contest was close, but he has been a successful fundraiser, and his role as a Democratic partisan has drawn support among the many government employees in the district.
The most prominent Republican in the field is Demaris Miller, a former teacher, nurse and government research psychologist. Her husband is Jim Miller, who was director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan and twice sought the GOP nomination for the Senate.
Miller faces businessman Chuck Carlton, who runs a temporary employment agency and who lent his campaign $70,000.
© 1998 Congressional Quarterly Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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