Union Voters Contributed To Davis' Victory
California voters are optimistic about future, exit poll shows
By Keating Holland/CNN
LOS ANGELES (June 3) -- California voters were in a sunny mood as they headed to the polls Tuesday, according to a CNN/Los Angeles Times exit poll.
In a survey of 5,143 voters, two-thirds of people said they thought California was going in the right direction, while only a third think the state was on the wrong track. And the state of the economy was less important to them than education, crime or taxes.
Californians were voting for the first time under a new system known as a "blanket primary," in which voters of any party could vote for any candidate and all candidates appeared on the ballot.
How did they react to the new rules? Only 9 percent found the system confusing and 58 percent approved of the fact that they were allowed to vote for candidates of different parties.
Here are the survey's numbers; final results were released Thursday morning:
Is California Headed In The Right Direction? |
Right direction Wrong track | 66% 34% |
Most Important Issue |
Education Crime Taxes Economy | 47% 25% 22% 15% |
The keys to Davis' Victory
Lt. Gov. Gray Davis was aided by a strong showing among union members and voters who live with someone in a union, but union households were not the only key to his victory. Davis got nearly half of his vote from voters in union households -- far more than businessman Al Checchi or former congresswoman Jane Harman -- but they did not represent a majority of the Davis vote.
Another key to Davis' strong showing: Most Davis voters were men, while a majority of Checchi and Harman voters were women. Harman voters were most likely to be liberals; Checchi voters most likely to be conservatives and Davis voters the most likely to be moderates.
In other respects, Davis voters also split the difference between Checchi and Harman voters. Most Checchi voters had no college education, while six in 10 Harman voters did. Davis voters fell in between those two extremes; 54 percent of them attended college. In the same way, Harman voters were most likely to have high incomes; Checchi voters were the poorest, and Davis voters were in between.
Here are all the numbers:
|
Checchi (D) |
Davis (D) |
Harman (D) |
Lungren (R) |
Final Statewide Results |
|
13% |
35% |
12% |
34% |
Party Registration |
Democrat Independent Republican |
16% 13% 7% |
52% 42% 13% |
18% 15% 7% |
9% 21% 70% |
Political Ideology |
Liberal Moderate Conservative |
14% 13% 10% |
49% 44% 15% |
21% 15% 23% |
7% 23% 65% |
Gender |
Men Women |
12% 14% |
34% 33% |
10% 15% |
37% 33% |
Race |
White African-American Hispanic Asian |
9% 17% 30% 14% |
30% 53% 36% 36% |
11% 17% 11% 10% |
43% 9% 17% 39% |
Age |
18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 64 |
19% 28% 14% 27% |
13% 33% 14% 33% |
11% 34% 13% 36% |
11% 39% 7% 40% |
Education |
No College Education Some College But No Degree College Graduate Post-Graduate |
20% 11% 10% 9% |
35% 32% 33% 38% |
9% 11% 12% 17% |
31% 39% 38% 30% |
Income |
Less Than $40,000 $40-60,000 Over $60,000 |
17% 12% 10% |
37% 34% 33% |
11% 12% 13% |
29% 35% 38% |
Religion |
Protestant/Other Christians Catholic Jewish |
11% 18% 11% |
29% 38% 46% |
11% 10% 19% |
44% 30% 19% |
Union Membership |
Voter Or Someone Else In Household Belongs To Labor Union |
12% |
43% |
12% |
27% |
No One In Household Belongs To Union |
13% |
29% |
13% |
39% |
Marital Status |
Married Widowed Single |
13% 10% 13% |
32% 44% 36% |
11% 7% 17% |
39% 36% 25% |
Region |
L.A. County Orange County Rest Of Southern Cal. Bay Area Rest Of Northern Cal. |
18% 9% 14% 12% 10% |
36% 23% 31% 44% 37% |
11% 8% 12% 17% 12% |
30% 55% 39% 17% 35% |
The Senate race
There were some ideological differences between voters who chose state Treasurer Matt Fong, who won, and those who preferred businessman Darrell Issa in the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate. Two-thirds of Issa voted described themselves as conservatives; only a bare majority of Fong voters were conservatives.
Fong's victory may be due to the new primary rules that allowed Democrats to vote for GOP candidates. A quarter of all Fong voters were registered Democrats, compared to only 17 percent of Issa voters who crossed party lines to support him. About one in 10 Fong voters were Asian Americans.
Here are all the numbers:
|
Boxer (D) |
Fong (R) |
Issa (R) |
Final Statewide Results |
|
44% |
22% |
19% |
Party Registration |
Democrat Independent Republican |
73% 51% 10% |
10% 22% 39% |
5% 13% 36% |
Political Ideology |
Liberal Moderate Conservative |
78% 52% 15% |
8% 20% 32% |
3% 12% 36% |
Gender |
Men Women |
39% 48% |
26% 19% |
20% 18% |
Race |
White African-American Hispanic Asian |
35% 78% 57% 34% |
26% 8% 11% 50% |
24% 3% 11% 9% |
Age |
18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 64 |
48% 44% 44% 41% |
17% 21% 21% 27% |
15% 19% 20% 19% |
Education |
No College Education Some College But No Degree College Graduate Post-Graduate |
47% 40% 41% 48% |
19% 21% 24% 25% |
15% 21% 19% 18% |
Income |
Less Than $40,000 $40-60,000 Over $60,000 |
48% 45% 41% |
19% 18% 25% |
15% 20% 20% |
Religion |
Protestant/Other Christians Catholic Jewish |
35% 47% 69% |
26% 21% 12% |
24% 16% 9% |
Union Membership |
Voter Or Someone Else In Household Belongs To Labor Union |
51% |
19% |
14% |
No One In Household Belongs To Union |
39% |
24% |
22% |
Marital Status |
Married Widowed Single |
39% 46% 55% |
25% 21% 14% |
21% 19% 14% |
Region |
L.A. County Orange County Rest Of Southern Cal. Bay Area Rest Of Northern Cal. |
51% 24% 42% 59% 39% |
18% 29% 20% 20% 26% |
16% 34% 23% 7% 18% |
Prop. 227: Bilingual Education
Nearly half of all primary voters said they believed that "if you live in America, you should speak English," and nearly four in 10 felt that "bilingual education is not effective."
Not surprisingly, given those sentiments, Prop. 227 passed on Tuesday. Only 19 percent of the state's voters felt that Prop. 227 would discriminate against non-English speaking students. There was a slight gender gap on this ballot initiative, with 54 percent of men voting for it and 53 percent of women against.
Here are all the numbers:
|
Yes |
No |
Final Statewide Results |
|
61% |
39% |
Party Registration |
Democrat Independent Republican |
47% 59% 77% |
53% 41% 23% |
Political Ideology |
Liberal Moderate Conservative |
36% 59% 77% |
53% 41% 23% |
Gender |
Men Women |
64% 57% |
36% 43% |
Race |
White African-American Hispanic Asian |
67% 48% 37% 57% |
33% 52% 63% 43% |
Age |
18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 64 |
50% 59% 61% 66% |
50% 41% 39% 34% |
Education |
No College Education Some College But No Degree College Graduate Post-Graduate |
56% 65% 63% 57% |
44% 35% 37% 43% |
Income |
Less Than $40,000 $40-60,000 Over $60,000 |
54% 61% 64% |
46% 39% 36% |
Religion |
Protestant/Other Christians Catholic Jewish |
66% 54% 55% |
34% 46% 45% |
Union Membership |
Voter Or Someone Else In Household Belongs To Labor Union |
53% |
47% |
No One In Household Belongs To Union |
65% |
35% |
Marital Status |
Married Widowed Single |
64% 62% 53% |
36% 38% 47% |
Region |
L.A. County Orange County Rest Of Southern Cal. Bay Area Rest Of Northern Cal. |
57% 75% 66% 49% 59% |
43% 25% 34% 51% 41% |
Prop. 226: Union Dues
The dispute over Prop. 226 was largely between Democrats, the traditional beneficiaries of union political activity, and Republicans.
So it comes as no surprise that a majority of voters who supported the "Paycheck Protection Act" were Republicans while a majority of "no" votes came from Democrats. Men represented a majority of those who favored Prop. 226; women were half of those who opposed the measure. (This is probably a function of the gender gap between the two parties.) Overall, a plurality of California voters on Tuesday felt that labor unions have too much influence.
Here are all the numbers:
|
Yes |
No |
Final Statewide Results |
|
47% |
53% |
Party Registration |
Democrat Independent Republican |
28% 45% 72% |
72% 55% 28% |
Political Ideology |
Liberal Moderate Conservative |
23% 40% 71% |
77% 60% 29% |
Gender |
Men Women |
50% 45% |
50% 55% |
Race |
White African-American Hispanic Asian |
55% 31% 25% 48% |
45% 69% 75% 52% |
Age |
18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 64 |
40% 45% 49% 55% |
60% 55% 51% 45% |
Education |
No College Education Some College But No Degree College Graduate Post-Graduate |
39% 47% 53% 50% |
61% 53% 47% 50% |
Income |
Less Than $40,000 $40-60,000 Over $60,000 |
42% 48% 51% |
58% 52% 49% |
Religion |
Protestant/Other Christians Catholic Jewish |
56% 41% 37% |
44% 59% 63% |
Union Membership |
Voter Or Someone Else In Household Belongs To Labor Union |
36% |
64% |
No One In Household Belongs To Union |
55% |
45% |
Marital Status |
Married Widowed Single |
51% 46% 40% |
49% 54% 60% |
Region |
L.A. County Orange County Rest Of Southern Cal. Bay Area Rest Of Northern Cal. |
47% 61% 50% 37% 48% |
53% 39% 50% 63% 52% |
Portrait of the electorate
The percent of all voters who said they were...
Party Registration |
Democrat Independent Republican |
48% 6% 40% |
Political Ideology |
Liberal Moderate Conservative |
20% 43% 37% |
Gender |
Men Women |
52% 48% |
Race |
White African-American Hispanic Asian |
69% 14% 12% 3% |
Age |
18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 64 |
8% 38% 30% 24% |
Education |
No College Education Some College But No Degree College Graduate Post-Graduate |
20% 27% 28% 25% |
Income |
Less Than $40,000 $40-60,000 Over $60,000 |
29% 22% 49% |
Religion |
Protestant/Other Christians Catholic Jewish |
50% 24% 5% |
Union Membership |
Voter Or Someone Else In Household Belongs To Labor Union |
35% |
No One In Household Belongs To Union |
65% |
Marital Status |
Married Widowed Single |
65% 7% 13% |
Region |
L.A. County Orange County Rest Of Southern Cal. Bay Area Rest Of Northern Cal. |
25% 8% 24% 14% 29% |
|