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Bush, Gore early front-runners for 2000But the vice president's support has flagged in a new pollBy Keating Holland/CNNWASHINGTON (October 27) -- Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush are the front-runners for their parties' presidential nominations in the year 2000, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. But while Bush's stock appears to be rising, Gore's has fallen since May. Five months ago, Gore won support from a majority of Democrats nationwide; today his support is 10 points lower and two potential challengers, former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley and House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, have doubled their share of support in that time.
Nonetheless, Gore still commands more than twice as much support as any other Democrat. On the Republican side, Bush wins the votes of twice as many Republicans as the runner-up, Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole. Only former vice-president Dan Quayle cracks double digits among the remaining Republicans tested. With Dole out of the running, Bush's share of the vote increases to 46 percent. How would Gore and Bush do in a hypothetical match-up? If the election were held today, Bush would score 18 points higher in a head-to-head race, 57-39 percent. That's a significant gain from last May, when Bush held only a four-point margin over Gore. In asking people about the 2000 race, the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll surveyors referred to Bush as "Texas governor" and "son of former president George Bush" to make sure that people were not confusing him with his father. The results are reported based on all people who participated in the survey because it is impossible to tell who are "likely voters" in an election that is more than two years away. The results are based on interviews with 1,013 adult Americans, including 499 Democrats and 423 Republicans, conducted October 23-25. The margin of sampling error ranges from +/- 3 percentage points for the entire group to +/- 5 percentage points for smaller subsamples. Here are the questions and the results: If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush -- the son of former president George Bush -- were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? Choice for President In 2000
Sampling error: +/-3% pts Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000? Democrats' choice for President in 2000
Al Gore 41% Sampling error: +/-5% pts Democrats' choice for President in 2000
Sampling error: +/-5% pts Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000? Republicans' choice for President in 2000
George W. Bush 39% Sampling error: +/-5% pts Republicans' Choice in 2000 if Elizabeth Dole does not run
George W. Bush 46% Sampling error: +/-5% pts A poor opinion of lawmakers' ethical standardsMost Americans will vote for someone next week whose honesty and ethical standards they do not hold in very high regard. Only 17 percent of people surveyed say that members of Congress have ethical standards which are high or very high. Only 19 percent say the same about senators, and state and local officeholders are in the same ballpark. That puts elected officials in the same league as stockbrokers (19 percent), real estate agents (16 percent), and TV reporters (21 percent). That is better than the bottom rung occupied by car salesmen (5 percent), advertising practitioners (10 percent) and insurance salesmen (11 percent), but far worse than druggists, the clergy, doctors or policemen. Does one party have a moral advantage over the other? Not really. Only 19 percent say that Republican officeholders have ethical standards which are high or very high; only 17 percent say the same about Democratic officeholders. (By the way, only 26 percent of the public thinks that public opinion pollsters have high or very high ethical standards.) Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields -- very high, high, average, low or very low? Honesty and ethical standards are very high or high
Druggists 64%
Local officeholders 21%
Business executives 21%
Insurance salesmen 11%
Republican officeholders 19% Sampling error: +/-3% pts | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MORE STORIES:Tuesday, October 27, 1998
McDougal fiancé scolded over Whitewater mention Farmhand saw suspect with murdered state senator, heard 'pop' Burton asks FEC to review Democratic funds Bennett tried to protect Jones case information from Starr Women discuss Social Security Witness in Espy trial says she was asked to delete details from trip itinerary First lady celebrates 51st birthday Man in Clinton threat makes a plea
Democrats on the decline in Kentucky Feiger forces Democratic defections in Michigan governor's race Jesse "The Body" Ventura plays the spoiler in Minnesota gov. race S.C. Senate race pits old South against new Both parties eye no-incumbent races Paper: Democrats fighting over elections Election ads outnumber news stories California candidate signs gay pledge Techniques to raise voter turnout Texas' Stenholm has a tough fight California candidate has military record |