January 12, 1999
Web posted at: 6:21 p.m. EDT (1821 GMT)

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (January 12) -- Although Texas Gov. George W. Bush has a comfortable lead over other potential GOP presidential candidates in nationwide polls, the situation is different in New Hampshire, which will host the first presidential primary in the year 2000, according to a new CNN/WMUR/RKM poll.

Also in this poll:

• Full poll results

Among registered Republicans in the Granite State, Bush is in a statistical dead heat with former Red Cross president Elizabeth Dole. If the presidential primary were held today, 31 percent would pick Dole and 30 percent would favor Bush. All other candidates were mired in single digits.

In the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, also released Tuesday, Bush has a 42-22 percent lead over Dole among all Republicans nationwide. (Full poll)

Name recognition is important at this stage of the game -- about eight in 10 New Hampshire Republicans are familiar with the front-runners Bush and Dole -- but name recognition does candidates little good if the voters do not have a favorable impression of them.

A case in point is Dan Quayle. He is the best-known Republican included in the poll but a majority of New Hampshire Republicans have an unfavorable view him. The former vice president ran sixth in the GOP field.

Eight New Hampshire Republicans in 10 are familiar with Pat Buchanan, who won the state's primary in 1996. But more of the state's GOPers have an unfavorable view of him than feel favorably toward him, and he tied Quayle with 3 percent support.

And home-state advantage does nothing for New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith, who is also known to about eight in 10 Republicans statewide, but whose unfavorable rating is almost as high as his favorables.

The survey of 576 registered Republicans in New Hampshire was conducted on January 8-11, and has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Full poll results:

If the Republican presidential primary were held today and you had a ballot in front of you, which of the candidates would you vote for?

Asked of Republicans only
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

I'm going to read you a list of people who may run in the Republican presidential primary. As I read each name, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person, or if you have never heard of him or her.

Opinion of Lamar Alexander

Opinion of Gary Bauer

Opinion of Pat Buchanan

Opinion of George W. Bush

Opinion of Elizabeth Dole

Opinion of Steve Forbes

Opinion of John McCain

Opinion of John Kasich

Opinion of Dan Quayle

Opinion of Bob Smith

Tuesday January 12, 1999

• White House says House prosecutors have 'weak' impeachment case
• Haggling over impeachment witnesses continues
• Poll: Dole runs even with Bush in New Hampshire
• Poll: Education, not impeachment, tops nation's agenda
• Jones to get her money from Clinton
• Rep. Kasich to form exploratory presidential committee
• Bradley files statement of candidacy
• Court lifts Colorado ballot measure restrictions
• Publisher Larry Flynt levels accusations at Rep. Bob Barr
• Clinton to propose $450 million purchase of vulnerable land
• Senior White House officials advise against releasing Pollard
• Student-on-student sexual harassment case goes before Supreme Court
• Government students ready for firsthand history lesson
• Clinton's impeachment: A tale of two newspapers
• Photographers want impeachment trial access
• Hubbell seeks dismissal of Starr indictment
• Eight freshmen get Senate baptism
• Quayle bashes Clinton on issues
• Clinton plans trip after State of the Union speech
• State dinner breaks into tango
• Clinton creates working group on Nazi records

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