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 TIME on politics Congressional Quarterly CNN/AllPolitics CNN/AllPolitics - Storypage, with TIME and Congressional Quarterly

Poll: Bush riding high, partly because he is not Gore

What issues will swing the 2000 election?

By Keating Holland/CNN

June 8, 1999
Web posted at: 5:50 p.m. EDT (2150 GMT)

WASHINGTON (June 8) -- As Texas Governor George W. Bush prepares to make a campaign swing through Iowa and New Hampshire this weekend, three-quarters of the public say they do not yet know enough about him to decide whether he would make a good president, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.


In this story:

Top 2000 issues
Gov. Bush's record

The survey results show that one of Bush's chief advantages right now appears to be that he is not Vice President Al Gore.

In a hypothetical match-up with the vice president, 56 percent choose Bush and 40 percent Gore. But a large bloc of those potential Bush voters -- 43 percent -- say that choice is mostly a vote against Gore, not a vote for Bush.

Even though they don't know much about him, Americans rank Bush higher than Gore on a variety of measures. When asked to choose who is more likely to be a strong and decisive leader, for example, 59 percent pick Bush and only 30 percent pick Gore.

Who is more inspiring? 54 percent say Bush; 29 percent say Gore. Who can keep the economy strong? Bush again, by a 51 percent-37 percent margin -- even though record numbers give the economy high marks and 74 percent approve of how Gore's boss, Clinton, is handling the economy.

Gore does better in a hypothetical race against Elizabeth Dole, but still loses to her by a 51 percent-44 percent margin.

Though, according to the poll, Gore would come up short if the election were held today, in reality the general election is 17 months away and events which will change voters' minds about the candidates are guaranteed to happen in that timeframe.

The survey of 1,053 adult Americans was conducted June 4-5, 1999 and has margin of sampling error of +/- three percentage points unless otherwise indicated.

Poll questions and results:

Thinking about George W. Bush, do you know enough about him to decide whether he would make a good president?

Yes       25%
No        74

Thinking about Al Gore, do you know enough about him to decide whether he would make a good president?

Yes       39%
No        60

As I read some personal characteristics, please tell me if you think each one applies more to George W. Bush or Al Gore:

Is inspiring

Bush      54%
Gore      29

A strong and decisive leader

Bush        59%
Gore        30

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

Bush         47%
Gore         40

Cares about the needs of people like you

Bush          44%
Gore          44

Can keep economy strong

Bush       51%
Gore       37

How would you rate economic conditions in this country today?

Excellent      18%
Good           56
Only fair      21
Poor            5

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

Getting better     60%
Getting worse      27

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling the economy?

Approve       74%
Disapprove    20

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Bush       56%
Gore       40

Asked of Bush voters: Is that more a vote for Al Gore or more a vote against George W. Bush?

To support Bush       51%
To oppose Gore        43

Asked only of Bush voters Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Asked of Gore voters: Is that more a vote for George W. Bush or more a vote against Al Gore?

To support Gore 62% To oppose Bush 34

Asked only of Gore voters Sampling error: +/-5% pts

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic party's candidate and former Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole were the Republican party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Dole       51%
Gore       44

Top 2000 issues

Which issues will be on voters' minds when they decide who to support in the 2000 presidential race? The next election may be driven by concerns for the next generation of Americans.

Forty-two percent of all adults say that the quality of education in America's public grade schools and high schools will be a top priority to them when they decide how to vote.

And 41 percent say that the problems of raising children in today's culture will be a top priority. That puts education and raising children at the top of the list of issues tested in this poll.

About a third of all Americans say that health care, crime, Social Security, and the economy will be a top priority in their vote. But other issues that spark a great deal of debate among the candidates are not at the top of voters' minds -- including taxes, guns, race relations, and abortion.

Poll questions and results:

I'm going to read a list which includes some national issues and some problems facing Americans today. For each one, please tell me how important a candidate's position on that issue is to you personally in deciding which candidate you will support for president. Would you say the issue is a top priority in how you vote?

Education           42%
Children            41
Health care         36
Crime               35
Social Security     33
Economy             29
Taxes               26
Guns                26
Race relations      17
Abortion            17

Sampling error: +/-5% pts

Gov. Bush's record

Americans generally react favorably toward Bush's record as Texas governor, but there is one exception: guns.

A majority say that they are less likely to vote for Bush as a result of his support for a law that allows Texans to obtain permits to carry concealed weapons. More than a third -- 39 percent -- say that Bush's view on concealed weapons makes them more likely to vote for him.

The public is split, 46 percent to 45 percent, on Bush's opposition of a bill that would have increased penalties for people convicted of hate crimes.

A firm majority of 81 percent say they are more likely to vote for him as a result of the property tax cuts recently passed by the Texas Legislature, and 84 percent say they are more likely to vote for him as a result of his support of a bill eliminating social promotion in Texas schools, which is the policy of allowing students who do not meet a certain academic standard to go on to the next grade in school.

What about Bush's lineage? Keep in mind that when former President George Bush left office in January 1993, only 28 percent approved of the way he handled the economy.

But the Democrats may not get much traction from the Bush economic legacy: 58 percent of Americans today approve of the way the elder Bush handled the economy, and 71 percent say they approve of the way he handled his job in office overall. In January 1993, his approval rating was 56 percent.

Poll questions and results:

As governor of Texas, George W. Bush supported a law that allows private citizens to obtain permits to carry concealed weapons. Does his position on this issues make you more likely or less likely to vote for him for president?

More likely to vote for him     39%
Less likely to vote for him      55

As governor of Texas George W. Bush opposed a bill that would have increase the criminal penalties against people convicted of hate crimes against minorities. Does his position on this issue make you more likely or less likely to vote for him fo president?

More likely to vote for him     46%
Less likely to vote for him      45

As governor of Texas, George W. Bush supported a major property tax cut for homeowners. Does his position on the issue make you more likely or less likely to vote for him as president?

More likely to vote for him      81%
Less likely to vote for him      12

As governor of Texas, George W. Bush supported a law requiring students to meet certain minimum academic requirements before they could advance to the next grade. Does his position on this issue make you more likely or less likely to vote for him fo president?

More likely to vote for him       84%
Less likely to vote for him       11

From what you have heard, read or remember about former President George Bush, do you approve or disapprove of the way he handled the economy when he was president?

Approve         58%
Disapprove     36

From what you have heard, read or remember about former President George Bush, do you approve or disapprove of the way he handled his job as president?

Approve         71%
Disapprove     25

CAMPAIGN 2000

New Hampshire sets February 1 primary date (9-28-99)

Arizona governor endorses Bush over McCain (9-28-99)

Bradley unveils $65 billion plan for universal health care (9-28-99)

Gore receives endorsements of Shaquille O'Neal and Bill Cosby (9-28-99)

MORE HEADLINES


FOLLOW THE MONEY

How much money have the candidates raised? Here are their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission.


VIDEO

McCain officially announces Presidential candidacy (9-28-99) video Windows Media: 28K | 80K

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The art of being Bradley

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'TOONS
On the wrong track

Bob Lang: On the wrong track (9-28-99) more

Mike Luckovich: "There's a whine in the air" (9-22-99) more


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