June 11, 1999
Web posted at: 5:00 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT)

WASHINGTON (June 11) -- Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore remain the front-runners for their parties' presidential nominations next year, with Gore beating Bill Bradley by almost three-to-one and Bush winning support from 54 percent of all Republicans, according to the latest CNN/TIME poll.

Why are Bush and Gore so far ahead of their rivals?

To find out, we asked the Republicans who said they support Bush in the GOP primaries and the Democrats who chose Gore to consider a list of items and indicate whether they consider each one to be very important reasons why they support their candidate for the nomination.

Why Bush?

By this measure, his name identification, endorsements, and his famous father are not as important to Bush Republicans as his experience, his stands on the issues, his chances of winning the White House next November, and above all, his personal character.

At the top of the list, 81 percent of Bush Republicans say that his strong personal character is a very important reason why they support him for the GOP nod while 62 percent cite his experience as Texas governor. And a majority -- 58 percent -- also say the fact that he has made his stands on issues clear is why they support him for the GOP nod.

Significantly, 56 percent say they support him because he has the best chance of beating the Democratic candidate in November.

But several things are not very important to Bush Republicans: Most Bush Republicans say that their views of his father and the number of endorsements he has piled up are not very important reasons why they want him to head the GOP ticket.

And only 32 percent say that they favor Bush because they have heard more about him than other GOP candidates. That is not surprising, given the fact that he is running against several rivals who most Americans are familiar with.

Why Gore?

What reasons do Gore Democrats give for choosing him over Bill Bradley? As with Bush, the top issue is his strong personal character, followed by his experience and clear stands on the issues, while his endorsements and connection to Clinton are not as important.

Interestingly, while Bush Republicans and Gore Democrats put strong character at the top of their lists, the GOPers appear to be far more concerned about the character of their nominee than the Democrats. Democrats who support the vice president also appear to be less motivated by their candidate's chances of winning the general election than Bush Republicans.

One final difference: a majority of Gore Democrats say that a very important reason why they support the vice president is that they have heard more about him than Bradley. Unlike Bush, Gore faces a relatively unknown opponent. The question for Gore will be whether he can hold onto those supporters once they learn more about his rival.

The survey of 1,031 adult Americans, including 389 Republicans, 482 Democrats, was conducted June 9-10, 1999. Among the participants 208 of the Republicans support Bush in the GOP primaries and 294 of Democrats support Gore in the Democratic primaries. The margin sampling of error is indicated with each question.

Questions and results

Bush 	     54%
Dole          14
Quayle         8
Forbes         6
Buchanan       3
McCain         3
Bauer          2
Kasich         1
Smith          1
Alexander      1

Asked of Republicans only
Sampling error: +/-5 pts.

           Now     March

Gore        62%      49%
Bradley     23       29

Asked of Democrats only
Sampling error: +/-5 percentage points

He is a person of strong	81%
	personal character
	
His experience as Texas		62
	governor
	
He has made his stands		58
	on the issues clear
	
He has the best chance		56
	of beating the 
	Democratic nominee
	
He has been endorsed by 	38
	hundreds of Republicans
	
I like his father, former	38
	President George Bush
	
I have heard more about 	32
	him than the other
	Republican candidates
	
I don't like the other 		18
	Republican candidates

Asked only of Bush Republicans
Sampling error: +/-7 percentage points

His experience as vice		66%
	president
	
He is a person of strong	65
	personal character
	
He has made his stands		60
	on the issues clear
	
I have heard more about 	54
	him than the other
	Democratic candidates
	
I like Bill Clinton		45

He has the best chance		43
	of beating the 
	Republican nominee
	nominee
	
He has been endorsed 		41
	by hundreds of 
	Democrats
	
I don't like the other		18
	Democratic candidates

Asked only of Gore Democrats
Sampling error: +/-7 percentage points

Friday, June 11, 1999

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