July 12, 1999
Web posted at: 5:49 p.m. EDT (2149 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AllPolitics, July 12) -- Rep. John Kasich of Ohio this week may become the first Republican to drop out of the 2000 presidential race, friends and advisers said Monday.

The nine-term congressman and chairman of the powerful House Budget Committee has some real assets -- clout in Congress, energy, youth and a clear campaign message focused on tax cuts. But he's also up against some tough political realities.

Rep. John Kasich

In the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, Kasich drew just 3 percent of likely Republican voters -- squeezed like so many candidates by Texas Gov. George W. Bush's phenomenal popularity and cash on hand.

Kasich also has had a slow start on the fund-raising trail, having raised only about $3 million so far this year, including $1.4 million transferred from his House campaign fund -- a mere fraction of Bush's $36 million.

While other GOP contenders may be mulling over a similar move, the others are expected to hold off on decisions until after the August 14 Iowa straw poll.

For Kasich to compete in this crucial straw poll, "it would cost about half a million to do it right," said senior adviser Ed Gillespie. "Kasich's got to ask, 'Is this the best thing for me to spend one-half million dollars in Ames, Iowa, or maybe use the time helping other candidates?'" said Gillespie.

Kasich would face two other big decisions if he decides not to seek the White House -- whether to endorse another presidential candidate and whether to seek a tenth term in the House. Several sources speculate that Kasich would endorse Bush.

"There are a lot of similarities between Bush and Kasich policy-wise," said Pat Tiberi, a close friend and protege of Kasich.

As far as his House seat, several Ohio Republicans indicated Kasich had been sending signals that he would not run again.

"I'd be surprised if he decides to run for Congress again, based on the signals he's sending," Republican Party communications director Gary Abernathy told CNN. Abernathy also stressed that Kasich wants to be president and may try another run in 2004 or 2008 if he drops out for 2000.

Party sources have indicated that they do expect Kasich to leave of the presidential race. As Dan Schnur, communications director for presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) said, "If he weren't going to drop out, they wouldn't have said what he was going to spend (on the straw poll)."

CNN's Frank Sesno, Jane Caplan and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Monday, July 12, 1999

• Senate Democrats, GOP square off on patients' rights
• Smith: Leaving GOP 'on principle'
• Gore outlines anti-crime agenda
• Kasich may leave GOP presidential race
• Clinton, GOP to hold tax summit
• Hillary Clinton to hold first fund-raising event
• Kentucky Democrats lose state Senate majority for first time
• Architect cited for serious violations in Library of Congress fire
• Chief Justice solves newspaper's riddle
• Moynihan expected to back Bradley
• Birmingham's first black mayor departing after 20 years
• Washington Yesterday: Hillary Clinton and history's carpetbag
• Lott predicts U.N. envoy will be approved despite holds
• Unusual PAC gives Bradley a guerrilla campaign network
• GOP presidential hopefuls denounce attack on Smith

• Hatch makes first New Hampshire foray
• Bush cancels day-care center appearance but fund-raiser still on
• Forbes blasts rivals who 'stand for nothing'

ARCHIVES