September 15, 1999
Web posted at: 6:35 p.m. EDT (2235 GMT)

WASHINGTON -- Although CNN reported earlier this week that Bill Bradley has closed to within a few points of Al Gore in New Hampshire, the vice president continues to maintain a two-to-one advantage among Democrats nationwide, and has even picked up a few points since August.

But Texas Gov. George W. Bush has a six-to-one advantage over his nearest rival, Elizabeth Dole, with all other GOP hopefuls in single digits. In a hypothetical two-way match-up, Bush maintains a comfortable advantage over Gore -- 56 percent to 39 percent -- and a 57 percent to 37 percent advantage over Bradley.

Is this race over? Not by a long shot. Half of all Republicans who would vote for Bush in the GOP primaries next year say they may change their minds and support someone else for the nomination. Only four in ten Americans who currently choose Bush over Gore in the general election say they strongly support him.

For the record, in congressional races, 46 percent of all Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district and 42 percent would choose the Republican. Historically, a four-point lead for the Democrats on the "generic ballot" question has indicated an extremely close race, and even, in some years, a Republican gain, rather than Democratic advantage.

The poll is based on interviews with 1,698 adult Americans conducted September 10-14, 1999. The margin of error is indicated after each question.

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for:

If former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for:

Next, I am going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000: Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley or Vice President All Gore?

Next, I am going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2000: Family Research Council Gary Bauer; political commentator Pat Buchanan; Texas Governor George W. Bush; Former Red Cross Director Elizabeth Dole; Businessman Steve Forbes; Arizona Senator John McCain; former Vice President Dan Quayle; Utah Senator Orrin Hatch; Political Commentator Alan Keyes?

Are you certain to support Texas Governor George W. Bush for the Republican nomination or do you think you may change your mind and support someone else for the nomination?

Do you support George W. Bush strongly, or only moderately?

If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?

But with a booming economy and a popular incumbent, why is Al Gore currently so far behind George W. Bush? It's not because they dislike Al Gore.

Most Americans think he is honest and trustworthy, shares their values, and cares about them. The problem is that Americans feel the same way about Bush -- and give him substantially higher marks on other leadership qualities.

Gore shows all the symptoms of a raging case of "vice presidentitis." By the very nature of the job, good vice-presidents have always had to make an extra effort to convince the public that they can lead the country and come up with their own ideas, and Gore is no exception.

Most Americans don't think he can bring about the change this country needs. Most don't find him inspiring, and the public is split over whether he is tough enough for the job.

And while 53 percent say that Gore could manage the federal government effectively, 72 percent say the same about Bush. Seven years of loyalty to Bill Clinton may also be hurting Gore.

Nearly half of all Americans say they are less likely to vote for Gore because of his close association with Clinton -- nine points higher than at the start of the year. Sixty-one percent approve of how Gore is handling his job as vice-president, but don't seem to think that would make him a good president.

Meanwhile, even though most Americans are generally unfamiliar with Bush's record as governor, 68 percent say they approve of his tenure as Texas' chief executive -- probably a sign that few Americans have heard anything bad about his tenure as chief executive.

It may also be a sign that the public is currently willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt. Gore should be so lucky.

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies or doesn't apply to Al Gore? How about George W. Bush?

Can manage the government effectively?

Inspiring?

Can bring about the changes this country needs?

Tough enough for the job?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?

In your view, does Vice President Al Gore's close association with President Bill Clinton make you more likely -- or less likely -- to vote for Al Gore for president in the year 2000?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Al Gore is handling his job as vice president?

From what you know, Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as governor of Texas?

But Gore's problems extend beyond personal characteristics. Once again, the public gives Gore high marks on most issues -- but, with one exception, the public gives similar ratings to Bush.

Before Clinton was elected, Republican candidates typically scored higher than their Democratic opponents on four major issues -- foreign policy, crime, taxes, and the budget deficit -- but Clinton was able to fight the GOP to a draw on those issues or even gain an advantage.

Significantly, Bush now holds the upper hand over Gore on all those classic GOP issues. Sixty-one percent say he would do a good job as president with foreign affairs while only 46 percent say that Gore would do a good job if he were elected. Sixty-five percent say Bush would do a good job on crime but only 52 percent say that about Gore.

Bush also leads on taxes -- even though the GOP's current tax cut proposal has not clicked with the public -- and on keeping the federal budget balanced. Fifty-eight percent say that Gore would do a good job with the economy if elected -- a figure probably helped by remarkably high ratings from the public on economic conditions in the U.S.

But even more -- 63 percent -- say that Bush would do a good job on the economy, thus trumping the biggest ace in Gore's hand. The public also rates Bush and Gore equally on issues like education, health care, Social Security and the problems of raising children in today's culture.

That's important not just because those have been traditionally Democratic issues, but because those are four issues that consistently rank at the top of the issues that the public cares about the most.

Only on one issue -- the environment -- does Gore have a significant lead over Bush, and even there a majority say that Bush would do a good job with the environment if he became president.

The bottom line from the poll is that most Americans probably think Gore would be an acceptable president -- but they think Bush would be an even better one.

Next, please say whether you think Al Gore would do a good job or poor job of dealing with each of the following issues. How about George W. Bush?

The Republicans' attempt during the August recess to convince the public to support their tax cut program does not appear to have been successful. A majority of Americans continue to say that they favor Clinton over the GOP when it comes to the tough choices involved both in cutting taxes and still maintaining needed federal programs.

That's actually a slight improvement for Clinton over mid-summer. Americans also continue to favor a smaller tax cut combined with increases in Medicare spending, a proposal the White House has floated, over larger tax cuts combined with smaller Medicare increases, as the GOP has proposed.

Americans are divided over whether agents of the federal government acted responsibly or irresponsibly at Waco, but the recent revelations about pyrotechnic tear gas canisters have changed the views of only a few Americans compared to four years ago.

Should Attorney General Janet Reno resign as a result of federal actions concerning Waco? Most Americans say no, but the number who think she should step down is more than three times what that figure was in the immediate aftermath of Waco in 1993.

Most Americans disagree with Clinton's decision to offer clemency to some members of the Puerto Rican nationalist group FALN and believe that he took that action to help his wife's chances of winning a U.S. Senate seat, rather than because he had been requested to do so by religious and international leaders.

The results in this section are based on interviews with 839 adult Americans and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

When it comes to dealing with the tough choices involved both in cutting taxes and still maintaining needed federal programs, whose approach do you prefer -- the Republicans in Congress, or President Clinton's?

As you may know, Congress and Clinton are debating over the amount of money to use for tax cuts and funding to create new Medicare programs. If you had to choose, which combination would you prefer -- (a) a larger tax cut and smaller increases in spending on Medicare, or (b) a smaller tax cut and larger increases in spending on Medicare?

From what you know about the events that occurred at Waco, do you think the actions of the federal agents were responsible or irresponsible?

In your view, should Attorney General Janet Reno resign from office because of the federal government's actions involving Waco, or should she stay in office?

As you may know, President Clinton has offered clemency to several members of a group who used violence in the 1970s to support political independence for Puerto Rico. Clinton has said these Puerto Ricans can be released from jail if they agree to certain conditions.

From what you know about the matter, do you agree or disagree with President Clinton's decision to offer clemency to these people?

Which of the following statements do you think is the main reason why Bill Clinton made this clemency offer -- (1) Because religious and international leaders asked him to do so, and he decided it was the right thing to do, or (2) Because he was attempting to win political support for Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in New York, where she may run for the U.S. Senate?

Wednesday, September 15, 1999

• Poll: Bush maintains lead over Gore, Bradley and fellow Republicans
• House approves sweeping changes in campaign finance law
• First lady criticizes Congress over tax cut, campaign finance
• Quayle criticizes plan to send troops to East Timor
• Hatch says Justice not prosecuting gun crimes
• Gore, Mrs. Clinton share stage at Hispanic gala
• House GOP remains split on 'patients bill of rights'
• Lawmakers disagree on how to aid farmers
• Clinton unlikely to act on resolution condemning clemency
• Senate panel boosts money for NASA, veterans
• Bill would shift money away from national jobs programs for the elderly
• Republicans fear a third-party bid by Buchanan
• Little suspense ahead of tax-cut veto
• Bauer loses campaign head to Forbes
• House passes military pay raise
• Justice: Businessman to plead guilty in campaign finance probe
• Poll, House GOP show resistance to e-commerce taxation
• Democrats say travel reimbursement provision aimed at first lady
• Seeking savings, GOP weighs tax credit delays for poor, other devices
• Deputy White House counsel takes job

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