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Off-year vote offers few clues into 2000 election
November 3, 1999 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Republicans and Democrats both had reasons to smile Wednesday after electoral gains in Tuesday's off-year elections, but political analysts say the vote carries no overall political message. "We've got obviously mixed results," said Earl Black, a Rice University political science professor. "No party goes into 2000 with a clear, comprehensive national victory from these off-year elections." CNN political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said if there's any message from the elections, it's that voters are very independent-minded right now. He cited Republicans in Columbus, Ohio, who helped to elect a Democratic mayor and, Democrats crossing over to almost elect a Republican mayor in Philadelphia. "I don't think that there's any partisan message here," he said. He said Republicans could claim a moral victory in traditionally Democratic Philadelphia, where Democrat John F. Street narrowly defeated Republican Sam Katz in the most expensive mayoral campaign in city history. But he said Republicans are "disappointed since they were hoping for a win." Republicans were ecstatic in Virginia, where the GOP took control of the state House of Delegates for the first time in history. The party only had to gain two seats to overcome the one-vote majority held by the Democrats. The GOP controls the state Senate and the governor's office. ÒIn Virginia this morning, we Republicans are what Al Gore would call ÔAlpha-males,'" said Jim Nicholson, the chairman of the Republican National Committee. CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider said the GOP victory in Virginia was a narrow one, but noted the party used different tactics from the last time a GOP governor tried to convince voters to put the GOP in control of the state legislature. Schneider said Republicans did not use the aggressive conservative strategy used four years ago by then-Gov. George Allen. This time, Gov. Jim Gilmore raised money for the election effort but let campaigns run on a local level with a moderate message, he said. "I think it's bad news for Charles Robb, the last Democrat in Virginia, who has to run to keep his Senate seat next year against George Allen," Scheider said. The Virginia victory also will give the GOP the ability to redraw election district lines after the 2000 census. The GOP will presumably use its power to redraw the lines to oust Democratic incumbents. But elsewhere, the outcome had a distinctly Democratic tinge. Democrats won mayor's races in eight cities, including Columbus, Ohio, and Indianapolis, Indiana, which the GOP had controlled for the past 30 years. "The Democratic Party is on the move across the country. Voters are responding to our message of progress and fiscal responsibility," said Joe Andrew, chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Schneider noted that the Columbus victory was significant in a state that will be key in the 2000 presidential election. "In Ohio, it's particularly significant because that's the largest city in Ohio, and that is a key battleground state (in presidential elections), so Democrats clearly scored big wins out there," Schneider said. Rothenberg said candidates running for office in 2000 might note from Tuesday's elections that voters seem to be concerned more with competence and leadership skills rather than ideology. "If I was to extrapolate anything, it's that candidates better be ready to run terrific campaigns and sell themselves to the voters," he said. Rothenberg said the national parties appear to be ready to nominate presidential candidates who are prepared to go after the swing voter instead of rousing the party faithful to show up at the polls. But he also said that federal campaigns tend to focus on ideology more than city and state races, which usually focus on local issues. In Mississippi, Democrats are on track to pick up their third governorship in two years after winning South Carolina and Alabama back from the GOP in 1998. The Mississippi race is very close, but Democratic Lt. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove led with 49.5 percent of the vote, followed closely by Republican Mike Parker, a former congressman, at 48.6 percent. However, if no candidate gets a majority of 50 percent plus one vote, state law requires that the election be decided by the state House of Representatives, where Democrats hold a more than 2-to-1 advantage over the GOP. The GOP blamed the close race on third-party candidates, who drew less than 2 percent of the vote. "If thereÕs a message in Mississippi, itÕs that Ronald Reagan was right," Nicholson said. "Third parties usually succeed in electing the very people they most oppose. In this case, they may have provided the margin to elect a liberal Democrat who ran a negative campaign funded by the trial lawyers." However, Andrew noted that Mississippi voters elected Amy Tuck as lieutenant governor, one of the first women statewide officials in Mississippi history. The Democrats also managed to retain the Kentucky governorship with the re-election of Gov. Paul Patton. The Associated Press contributed to this report, which was written by Douglas S. Wood. |
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MORE STORIES:Wednesday, November 3, 1999
• Election analysis: Don't take voters for granted • Presidential candidates prep in earnest for first votes of 2000 • GOP snares Virginia General Assembly; Mississippi governorship still undecided • Internet revolution pushing way into voting booth • Clinton vetoes final spending bill • Off-year vote offers few clues into 2000 election • First lady looking forward to New York residency • Des Moines Register: Forbes plans TV, radio ad blitz • Alabama governor suspends more aides in ticket-fixing scandal • House panel releases Huang-FBI transcripts • Minimum wage boost threatened in House tax relief dispute • Republicans question big government lawsuits against industry • Democrats say GOP won't schedule votes on gun control • Spokesman: Illinois governor didn't soften Cuban speech | |||||||||||||||||||||