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Web-only Exclusives
November 30, 2000

From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War
A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix

From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead
Bad news for the Philippines - and some others

From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies
Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights?

Asiaweek Time Asia Now Asiaweek story

A Euphoric Rush to Democracy

But fixing the nation's economy is even more urgent

By Jose Manuel Tesoro / Jakarta


Points of contention

A FACTION OF THE RULING PARTY Golkar breaks away. Former president Suharto's son, Bambang Trihatmodjo, and son-in-law, Indra Rukmana, resign from their massive car-and-communications conglomerate Bimantara Citra. Amid growing public outrage, the Suharto-appointed attorney-general says he could launch an investigation into the wealth accumulated by the former president's family during his 32-year rule and says that "the public should remain calm." Interior Minister Syarwan Hamid releases civil servants from their duty to vote for Golkar, while just-freed union leader Muchtar Pakpahan holds a press conference with the minister of labor. The military schedules court-martials of 19 soldiers suspected of killing four students after a peaceful demonstration in Jakarta May 12. Hubert Neiss, International Monetary Fund Asia-Pacific chief, meets not only with government officials during a Jakarta visit, but with opposition and student leaders. A month ago, any one of these events would have seemed fantastic in Indonesia. Now, the miraculous has become commonplace.

The biggest miracle, however, would be to make all these changes add up to a functioning democracy. "In the minds of Indonesians, democracy is still theoretical," says noted writer and former political prisoner Pramoedya Ananta Toer. Indonesians tore up Suharto's years-old autocratic rulebook in a matter of days. Suharto ceded power to his vice president, B.J. Habibie, on May 21. Since then, people have been making up their own rules. On June 3, Habibie told CNN that new general elections will take place by the end of 1999. But groups declared their intention to contest the polls well before that, even before the president announced that "anyone can form a political party." (His one condition: such groups should not be based on race, religion or ethnicity.) People now openly question the state ideology of Pancasila, even the 1945 constitution, a document that is supposed to provide a template for the new Indonesia.

The rapid pace of Indonesia's "democratization" is as worrying as it is exhilarating. It is occurring in dire economic circumstances for one thing. But the country also appears unsure if it is hurtling toward a brighter future or back to its turbulent, politically fractured past. The last time the largely agricultural and poorly educated nation engaged in a democratic experiment was during the 1950s. The result was "Parliamentary Democracy": raucous, deeply ideological politics, unstable governments and an impatient and slighted military.

The sense of déjà-vu is partly evoked by the reemergence of parties that have not been heard from in decades. On May 29, Syarikat Islam, a group founded in 1912, split from the Muslim-linked United Development Party, with which it had been forced to merge in 1973. The Murba (Proletarian) Party, founded in 1948 and also required to join an officially approved organization in 1973, announced plans to contest the polls on its own. Other groups are vying to either claim the heritage of old organizations or the patronage of emerging forces such as farmers, women and workers.

University of Indonesia political scientist Arbi Sanit calls this explosion of political organizations "only one of the consequences of a long-restrained people" set free. He believes that Indonesian politics has reached a level of maturity where differences can be settled through negotiation rather than the confrontation characteristic of the 1950s. But many others worry that party contests and political maneuvering, at a time when the restoration of a ravaged economy demands complete attention, will be distracting and divisive. "This will crowd out attention on food and basic goods," says playwright and political activist Ratna Sarumpaet. "We cannot afford to waste even one hour."

The time bomb is certainly ticking. Loudly. On June 1, the Central Statistics Bureau announced that the country's economy contracted by more than 8% in the first quarter. It estimates that Indonesia's GDP will shrink by at least a tenth this year. According to the Manpower Ministry, at least 15 million people are out of work, or close to a sixth of the total labor force. Inflation may exceed 80% by December. Domestic supplies of rice are at their lowest in two decades, but several countries in the region have already pledged to donate rice. Flour, sugar and soybean stocks should last three months more. Even if supplies are secured, though, disrupted distribution systems once run by ethnic Chinese will make the cost of food prohibitive for many. And economic minister Ginandjar Kartasasmita says government subsidies of basic food goods (including flour, sugar, corn, soybeans and fishmeal ) will be completely lifted in October, as required by Jakarta's agreement with the IMF.

Indonesia is running out of money. The government has already spent some $11 billion on the devastated banking system. The central bank's reported reserves of $14.6 billion may really be half that. The IMF will likely disburse its second tranche of $1 billion, postponed because of the political turmoil. But that amount now seems as effective as a band-aid for open heart surgery.

Says economist Umar Juoro: "While a good thing for the development of democracy, this euphoria in politics is a disadvantage for the economic recovery." And real political reform when it comes will undoubtedly bring more squabbles. The Habibie government, aware its legitimacy is in doubt, has put openness ahead of economic reconstruction. Military chief Wiranto said June 3 that while reform is important, "overcoming the crisis should be a priority." Even those who fought for political change now worry that the new regime will not deliver reform - or an economic revival, either. Chaos would result. And could force the military to take an even bigger political role, a scenario many fear is inevitable.

On June 1, dozens of red-and-white banners appeared on the capital's busiest streets emblazoned with the names of opposition figure Megawati Sukarnoputri, Muslim leader Amien Rais, President Habibie and Gen. Wiranto, among others. They read: "Unite!!! People are starving!!! The country is almost bankrupt!!! Save this republic first!!! Take back people's money!!!" The exclamation points may seem extreme, but so is the situation. Unless Indonesia's leaders pay as much attention to the economy as to the coming elections, Jakarta's spring may well be followed by a very bitter winter.


POINTS OF CONTENTION

Reforming the political system means rewriting five fundamental laws passed by the Suharto government in 1985. Of the five, three demand immediate attention:

THE ELECTION LAW established a proportional system of voting, in which parliamentary seats were allocated to three government-sanctioned parties based on their returns. A district-based political system, in which voters can choose representatives from their own locality, might be introduced.

THE PEOPLE'S CONSULTATIVE ASSEMBLY, which selects the president and vice president, now consists of parliament (425 elected members and 75 military representatives) plus another 500 government appointees. Reform might reduce the number of seats allocated to appointees, which touches uncomfortably on the issue of armed forces representation.

THE POLITICAL PARTY AND GOLKAR LAW allows the ruling party to claim to speak for groups such as unions and cooperatives that are constitutionally granted representation. The law also limits the number of parties to three, including Golkar. Some now want an open field, others suggest only a few more legal parties be approved.


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