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JULY 21, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 28 | SEARCH ASIAWEEK

If not Tung, Then who?
The list of candidates is not a long read
By Alejandro Reyes Hong Kong

Who would replace Tung Chee-hwa if he chose to pass on a second term in 2002? There's not a plethora of candidates to choose from, mainly because to have any hope of success, he or she would have to have the backing of Beijing and Hong Kong's powerful business lobby. That rules out all those with any suspicion of a liberal background. On top of that, some of the most able figures prefer to work behind the scenes, leaving the limelight (and the torment) to others. Still, there are a few names.

Leading them is Chief Secretary for Administration Anson Chan Fang On-sang, Tung's 60-year-old lieutenant. Her popularity has been dented in recent months by her loyalty to her out-of-favor boss, but she remains one of the most respected public figures in the territory. Shanghai-born Chan has in the past ruled out running for chief executive, but these days she seems cagier, refusing to speculate on what might happen. Previously mistrusted by Beijing because of her close association with the last British governor, Chris Patten, she is now viewed more kindly, partly thanks to the way she has stressed her Chinese roots. Not that it counts, but the 38-year civil service veteran would easily be the people's choice in a free election.

Financial Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen is often tipped as most likely to succeed Chan as chief secretary once she retires. Could he skip up to the CE's chair if both Tung and Chan bow out? Also popular with the public, the Harvard-trained bow-tie fan may have blown his chances when, on the eve of the handover, he accepted a knighthood from Queen Elizabeth. (Chan wisely refused any honor.) But Tsang, 56, has had a successful stint as Hong Kong's first Chinese financial chief, and Beijing officials seem to be warming to him.

Leung Chun-ying, convenor of Tung's Executive Council of close advisers, is often described as a CE-in-waiting. A British-schooled surveyor with a gracious manner, he plays a clever political game -- though his reputation may have suffered from his perceived role in a recent debacle over housing policy. At 46, Leung has time on his side and can afford to wait until 2007 before making his move. But if opportunity comes knocking sooner, he is unlikely to resist the call.

Then there are the dark horses in the business community -- such as Wharf Holdings' Peter Woo Kwong-ching, who ran against Tung in 1996. He has stayed in the public eye by controversially arguing for government by an elite -- with the masses kept in their place and those who pay the most taxes having the greatest say. His pitch may appeal to some, but Woo, 54, son-in-law of the late shipping tycoon Pao Yue-kong, possibly has too many enemies in the business world. One commercial baron on the rise is garment and textile tycoon Henry Tang Ying-yen, 48. Also a member of the Executive Council and a leading light in the pro-business (but largely ineffectual) Liberal Party, he advises Tung on industrial policy. One of the more popular members of the cabinet, Tang has cast himself as a media-friendly businessman with a social conscience. That may just be the combination needed as an antidote to Tung's alienating, aloof style.

Write to Asiaweek at mail@web.asiaweek.com

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