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OCTOBER 20, 2000 VOL. 26 NO. 41 | SEARCH ASIAWEEK
Will tough new laws make this general election clean? DUNCAN INNES-KER is research analyst, Asia-Pacific, for World Markets Research Center, a London-based country risk analysis company Thailand is often regarded as the perfect example of an Asian nation following the Western path of development. In politics it espouses free and fair elections. In economics it listens to the advice of the International Monetary Fund. The general election, which must be called by Nov. 17, should provide a chance for the country to shine once more, as it takes place under a new constitution designed to stamp out corruption. Yet a host of incidents over recent months have shown the scale of the task ahead. As unofficial campaigning gets underway, the dance between the forces of tradition and change is set to intensify, and it looks like neither knows which is meant to be leading. Democratic elections are hardly new in Thailand. Although the military appears to have withdrawn permanently from politics since 1992, problems remain. By far the most important is corruption, which has manifested itself in vote-buying and rigging, bribery and embezzlement of public funds. Addressing this issue was a priority even before the Asian crisis and, in October 1997, parliament approved a new constitution designed to take an ax to the roots of the vice. Out of the new constitution emerged an elected Senate (the old appointed chamber was a fusty mixture of military and civil service grandees) and a new Electoral Commission with wide-ranging powers to annul corrupt votes. Compulsory voting and campaign spending limits were imposed, along with measures to distance politicians from their business interests. Those MPs with unusual wealth could be investigated by the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC). Two events in particular have indicated the influence the new constitution could have on politics. The most positive was the prosecution of Sanan Kachornprasart, formerly thought to be the most powerful man in Thailand after the prime minister. Sanan was interior minister and general secretary of the ruling Democrat Party when he was referred by opposition MPs to the NCCC last year. He was unable to explain the source of some $1.2 million to the NCCC's satisfaction, and it was ruled that documents indicating that the money was a loan lacked validity. The scandal destroyed his political career. While previous NCCC investigations had claimed prominent scalps, the Sanan case showed that corrupt practices could be fought at any level under the new system. Furthermore, the media and opposition could be relied upon to maintain the pressure to launch such investigations. The second event, the Senate elections in March, showed just how resistant corruption can be. The ballot was re-run five times over five months in some districts as the commission time and again threw out results on the grounds of vote-buying and electoral malpractice. While the end result was almost certainly cleaner than any previous election, the cost — both monetary and in terms of voter apathy by the later rounds — was high. Meanwhile, some candidates are finding new ways to abuse the system — a few are thought to have bought votes for rivals in order to have them disqualified. Even as politicians attempt to improve their image, there are signs that some voters are being left behind. In the countryside, which sends in the majority of MPs, vote-buying is still the rule. Ballots are cast for individuals rather than parties or issues, providing fertile ground for abuses. Although urbanites frequently look down on their rural compatriots, the story in the cities is not entirely dissimilar. Bangkok's recent election of governor was dominated by personality. It is unfair to blame the voters entirely for the slow transformation. After all, the choice of candidates is still dominated by fixers and power players. Parties and groupings within them often coalesce around individuals, encouraging backroom deals and corruption. It will take some time before the remnants of the old school can be flushed out. Much of the interest in the general election is whether the new system will strike down previously untouchable legislators. The NCCC's willingness to hit hard and without bias was underlined in September, when it announced that it is to investigate Thai Rak Thai's prime ministerial hopeful Thaksin Shinawatra. The inquiry into suspicious share movements will tarnish his reputation as an anti-corruption stalwart, although it is unlikely to alter the election results. This general election will undoubtedly be a landmark event. Not only is it the first under the 1997 constitution, but it will be one of the closest fought in history. No commentator as yet has been able to make a confident assertion whether newcomer Thai Rak Thai will be able to defeat the ruling Democrats. With these two running so close, smaller parties (sadly they are often dominated by the less savory) are likely to have disproportionate power in the new government. Nonetheless, corruption is being addressed. As the NCCC tackles graft in office, so the commission has the power to root out the corrupt before they enter parliament. If the Senate election is any example, it will not shrink from the task. The result is likely to be controversial, and could bring instability if by-elections are called repeatedly. The final outcome, however, should be a body that is more professional and less corrupt than any of its predecessors.
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