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Web-only Exclusives November 30, 2000 From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead Bad news for the Philippines - and some others From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights? |
NOVEMBER 5, 1999 VOL. 25 NO. 44
Beyond Groundhog Day
Is this Pyongyang's last chance to end the false starts?
By AIDAN FOSTER-CARTER
Aidan Foster-Carter Analyzes Korea at Leeds University in Britain. He has followed North Korean affairs for over 30 years photo: Asiaweek Pictures |
Or consider Hyundai founder Chung Ju Yung, returning from North Korea with high hopes of making big investments. Good luck to him. Yet equally high hopes were riding on Chung's first trip north - in 1989. But there was no follow-up. Almost a decade passed before the now elderly patriarch was allowed to try again.
Above all, there is the recent lifting of U.S. sanctions in exchange for a moratorium on Pyongyang's missile tests - the first fruit of the Perry process. Ex-Defense Secretary William Perry's long-awaited report has been hailed as the basis of a new relationship with North Korea, which could lead to diplomatic ties. Fine, but strangely familiar. For the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework, which resolved the North Korean nuclear crisis, was meant to lead to just such a wider opening. It didn't.
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Why these endless false starts? Contrary to popular belief, it isn't all Pyongyang's fault. That Hyundai couldn't start investing in North Korea sooner was mainly because South Korea got cold feet about bankrolling the enemy. If the Agreed Framework didn't usher in a wider U.S.-North Korea honeymoon, it's because that stuck in the craw of hawkish Republicans. And the ups and downs of inter-Korean relations reflect hesitations and U-turns in Seoul as well as Pyongyang.
Will it be different this time? It could be - if Hyundai gets to build its huge export zone near Haeju, just 100 km by sea from Inchon. This is slated to create 200,000 jobs and up to $20 billion in exports (North Korea's current exports total less than $1 billion per year). It could revive not only the comatose Northern economy but the peace process, by creating real win-win mutual prosperity - the aim of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's courageous "sunshine" policy.
When Chung met Kim Jong Il recently, Pyongyang's leader gave the plan his blessing - but asked Hyundai to consider other sites, including Sinuiju on the China border. On Oct. 15, a Hyundai team poised to head north aborted the trip because Pyongyang hadn't sent a list of sites. Is the North stalling? The extra distance to Sinuiju would drive up Hyundai's costs. North Korea's army may have balked at having Hyundai vessels in seas where not long ago it unilaterally proclaimed a new border. Or maybe Kim Jong Il just isn't ready for real business with South Korea - and never will be. True, there is Hyundai's tourism to Mt. Kumgang; but this is a loss-leader, sealed off from wider North Korean society as a vast export zone could not be.
What of the Perry process? His report contains much wisdom - on the need at all costs to avoid war, and for the U.S. and its allies to keep a coherent and consistent stance toward Pyongyang. Yet I fear it is very vulnerable. Despite Perry's pleas for bipartisanship, as elections near the Republicans won't pass up a chance to accuse Clinton of appeasing the North. Another problem is Perry's puzzling failure to include chemical and biological warfare, which Seoul's latest defense white paper sees as a major threat.
All will be well if Pyongyang moves swiftly to address U.S. concerns - by beginning formal, comprehensive dialogue, and making solid concessions to stop developing, testing, and selling missiles. And groundhogs might fly. North Korea is one tough negotiator. On the nuclear issue, it took years to move inches. And it has said repeatedly that while it might be bribed not to sell Scuds to the likes of Iran and Pakistan, it will not give up missiles as such. What if it means it?
I am neither an essentialist who believes North Korea can never change, nor a hawk. There is constant debate in Pyongyang about how to adapt without undermining the regime. Yet it's easier to procrastinate than risk a real process of give and take. Trouble is, the world's patience is not limitless. Kim Jong Il has a unique opportunity to prove himself a great leader by grasping the olive branches held out by the South Korean and U.S. administrations. It's a brief window. If he stalls, both could lose elections next year to hawks. If we are ever to break the spell of Groundhog Day, Pyongyang must for once act fast and positively. Real time does not stand still. This could be its last chance.
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