COOK ELECTORAL RATING
October 29, 2004
The Cook Political Report is edited and published by Charlie Cook, one of the nation's top political analysts. Cook founded the independent, non-partisan newsletter in 1984 to analyze elections, campaigns and political trends. The Cook Political Report
These ratings by The Cook Political Report are estimates based upon a canvas of at least four top strategists for each party, including several within both the Bush and Kerry campaigns. Please note that Maine and Nebraska are not winner-take-all states in terms of in Electoral votes. In Maine, for example, Kerry is likely to win the electoral vote for the first congressional district while President Bush is expected to win the vote for the second district. The winner of the statewide vote will win the other two electoral votes.
To be honest, we at Cook think that trying to figure out who is going to win by closely examining the electoral vote is a bit of a fool's errand, and that if the popular vote margin is more than one percent, the popular and electoral votes will go the same way, and if the margin is less than one percent, enough states will be so close that is would be impossible to ascertain which ones are more likely to go red or blue. After all, what poll could have told you that Florida would go for Bush in 2000 (Bush margin: 537 votes) or that New Mexico would go for Gore (margin: 366 votes)?
Of the 11 gubernatorial races this year, six remain a toss-up -- Indiana, Missouri, Washington, Montana, New Hampshire and Utah. In the 2004 U.S. Senate races, the Democrats have five seats of their 19 seats up that could go either way: Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and South Dakota. The Republicans have 15 Senate seats up for re-election, but Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky and Oklahoma remain toss-ups. Republicans currently have the majority in the House, but 19 of the 37 open seats were GOP held and three new open seats are in Texas.
The Cook Political Report: Governor | Senate | House