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Big jump in Alzheimer's cases forecast

alzheimer's February 5, 1997
Web posted at: 3:00 p.m. EST

In this story:

From Correspondent Andrew Holtz

(CNN) -- Twice as many people may be at risk of developing Alzheimer's disease in coming decades than previously thought, according to new estimates from the National Institute on Aging (NIA).

suzman

The prediction comes amid debate about how many Americans will live to advanced age. The NIA's Richard Suzman says the Social Security Administration may have underestimated by half the number of Americans -- currently in their 30s -- who will live to age 85 and beyond.

"We may be faced with 30 or more million people age 85 and over (in the year 2050)," he told CNN. icon (196K/17 sec. AIFF or WAV sound) The actual number who reach 85 is significant because Alzheimer's can afflict up to half the people in 85 and over age group.

U.S. won't 'be able to cope'

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Without a new treatment, "our public health system ... is not going to be able to cope with it," said Zaven Khachaturian of the Alzheimer's Association. icon (179K/15 sec. AIFF or WAV sound)

An estimated 4 million Americans currently have the progressive, incurable neurological disorder.

The new statistics were announced Wednesday in New York at a meeting sponsored by the Alzheimer's Association/Ronald and Nancy Reagan Research Institute.

The former president, who turns 86 on Thursday, revealed in November 1994 that he had been diagnosed with Alzheimer's.

The meeting was also funded by Bayer Corp., which is developing drugs to fight Alzheimer's.

Alzheimer's research

Medical experts at the meeting called for greater efforts to discover effective ways to prevent or treat Alzheimer's, warning that the nation can't afford the financial and social cost of a flood of elderly patients.

There are two approved drugs that temporarily ease Alzheimer's symptoms for some patients, but they do not alter the course of the disease.

Several drugs are being tested in animals and people with the aim of slowing Alzheimer's damage.

Results of an experiment to see if the combination of vitamin E and the drug selegiline can stave off symptoms are expected this spring. Selegiline is an enzyme-activated drug meant to protect brain cells from toxic injury.

Treatment, but not a cure

Experts point out that while some patients suffer Alzheimer's disease for years or even decades, the vast majority of cases occur near the end of life.

For that reason, drugs that delay the onset of the disease could allow most people to live out their lives without suffering serious Alzheimer's-related problems.

Four genes linked to Alzheimer's have been discovered in recent years. Researchers are using them to find clues to potential treatments. However, they don't recommend genetic testing since no preventive treatment is available.

Lifestyle factors may also play a role. A recent study of Japanese immigrants who grew up in Hawaii had Alzheimer's disease at a rate closer to their white American neighbors than their relatives back in Japan.

Other studies have hinted that education and mental activity may be a factor. Researchers speculate education may strengthen connections within the brain. Or, it could be that the brains of people who are mentally active are better able to work around damage caused by the disease.

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