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Friday, February 05, 1999 8:06:57 PM EST

From Reviewer Wendy Brandes

(CNN) -- The 41st annual Grammy awards are nigh, and there's a strong temptation to quote the cancer-stick ads of yore: "You've come a long way, baby." But, let's face it, Big Tobacco is an even worse advocate for girl power than the Spice Girls are -- at least Scary & Co. haven't been clinically proven to be a public health hazard (studies are underway). Best Metal Performance nominees Nashville Pussy suggest a better slogan, but we'll get to that category later.

My point is that, in stark contrast to the infamous 1988 awards, when the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences dropped the Best Female Rock Vocal Performance category due to a lack of contenders, this ceremony will be an out-and-out chick fest. In 1999, women dominate the big Best Record, Best Album and Best R&B Album categories, and have snagged three out of five nominations for both Best Pop Album and Best Rock Album.

As for Best Female Rock Vocal Performance, there are five worthies vying seriously for the coffee-table ornament (with no padding needed, unlike in the Alternative category, which weirdly includes the rapping Beastie Boys and hardly-alternative-anymore Smashing Pumpkins).

This year's Homecoming Queen should be Lauryn Hill of the Fugees, whose first solo album, "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill," has put her in the running for 10 awards. "Miseducation" is rightly a critical and commercial smash hit, a whip-smart blend of sultry and soulful R&B, rap and reggae. The lyrics are an eloquent example of Lauryn's Lib, taking her from "...just a little girl/Skinny legs, a press and curl" to a burgeoning star who, in a song dedicated to her son, Zion, rejects an abortion: "I knew his life deserved a chance/But everybody told me to be smart/Look at your career they said/'Lauren, baby use your head'/But instead I chose to use my heart."

Lauryn Hill isn't the whole story, though, so let's take a look at -- I promise -- just a select few of the 95 Grammy categories. I'll risk humiliation by saying whom I would vote for and who I think the Academy will pick.

Best Record contenders: Brandy and Monica, "The Boy Is Mine"; Celine Dion, "My Heart Will Go On"; Goo Goo Dolls, "Iris"; Madonna, "Ray of Light"; Shania Twain, "You're Still the One."

Let's rule out the Goo Goo Dolls first, even though "Iris," from the "City of Angels" soundtrack, was a monster success. That the movie was no, um, "Titanic," leaches some of the sentiment from the song. Besides, this is girls' night out. The boys from Buffalo are out of place. The duet by baby divas Brandy and Monica starts out catchily enough, but lacks the delightful naughtiness lent to it by the video. When you're not distracted by the sight of the superchic duo squaring off, then ganging up on the boy in question, the melodic catfight turns monotonous. Madonna generated excellent dance-pop and Shania Twain scored a big crossover hit with the help of a toned tummy and A-list producer/collaborator/hubby Mutt Lange, but for them I have a few words: Soundtrack queen. Leo. Big bucks.

My pick: "Ray of Light"
The Grammy: "My Heart Will Go On."

Best Album contenders: Sheryl Crow, "The Globe Sessions"; Garbage, "Version 2.0"; Lauryn Hill, "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill"; Madonna, "Ray of Light"; Shania Twain, "Come on Over."

Crow's smooth rock is a perfect way to warm up a party, and glam Shirley Manson of Garbage is as edgy as ever, but Hill is a lock.

My pick: "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill"
The Grammy: "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill"

Best Pop Album contenders: Eric Clapton, "Pilgrim"; Celine Dion, "Let's Talk About Love"; Natalie Imbruglia, "Left of the Middle"; Madonna, "Ray of Light"; Brian Setzer Orchestra, "The Dirty Boogie."

The horror! The horror! Eric Clapton -- Mr. Blues himself -- in the pop category? These sluggish tunes aren't at all representative of this great musician. Slowhand, lose the "drum programming" and go back to what you do best. The wraithlike Dion's "Titanic" tune overshadows the rest of her album, and Imbruglia should win New Artist, if anything. Brian Setzer is an incredibly nimble guitar player (Eric Clapton would be proud of the fleet fingerings here) and swing is on MTV and in Gap ads, but I doubt it has the critical momentum it needs to take this category. Madonna deserves the Grammy for making electronica (and mantras) accessible to the masses. Pretty hip for a 40-year-old mom!

My pick: "Ray of Light"
The Grammy: "Ray of Light"

Best New Artist contenders: Backstreet Boys, Andrea Bocelli, Dixie Chicks, Lauryn Hill, Natalie Imbruglia.

Dreamboat boy groups fatten the wallets of record company execs by thrilling the bobby sox set, but their shelf lives are usually brief, not to mention embarrassing in hindsight (remember New Kids on the Block?). In the era of Hanson and N'Sync, the Backstreet Boys don't even have novelty on their side. The blind Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli is a bit too much of the novelty act for this category.

Is Lauryn Hill a new artist? The category, as NARAS defines it, is meant to honor "the first recording that establishes the public identity of that artist." Hill hardly fits the definition. As part of the Fugees, she won two Grammys.

That leaves the Dixie Chicks, part of the anti-big-hair country brigade, and Imbruglia. Sure, Imbruglia's Betty Boop voice is almost as irritating as the blank stare she tries to pass off as passion, but I can't get "Torn" out of my head.

My pick: Natalie Imbruglia
The Grammy: Lauryn Hill

Best Rock Album contenders: Sheryl Crow, "The Globe Sessions"; John Fogerty, "Premonition"; Garbage, "Version 2.0"; Hole, "Celebrity Skin"; Dave Matthews Band, "Before These Crowded Streets."

Seems we have a Creedence Clearwater Revival revival. Fogerty's live versions of "Bad Moon Rising," "Proud Mary" and "Travelin' Band" are old hat. Great old hat, but still. ... Crow is easy to enjoy, like a cool Budweiser at a summer barbecue, but I prefer the nasty tequila kick of Garbage's venomous pop and Hole's self-obsessed hybrid of grunge and California pop. The Dave Matthews Band, famed for its live performances, is probably the hardest working group out there and the guys don't have a mean bone among them.

My pick: I'm torn between Garbage and Hole. I guess it will have to be Hole, just to hear Courtney Love's acceptance speech.
The Grammy: Dave Matthews

Best Rap Album contenders: Big Punisher, "Capital Punishment"; Jermaine Dupri, "Life in 1472: The Original Soundtrack"; Jay-Z, "Vol. 2 . . . Hard Knock Life"; Mase, "Harlem World"; A Tribe Called Quest, "The Love Movement."

If there's a law that rap albums must have annoying skits between tracks, can we get it repealed? That aside, Mase has no rhythm and Dupri has a voice like Mike Tyson, without the punch to back it up. Oh, and Jermaine, let's have some more songs about gold-digging bitches who need to get their asses kicked. We can never have too many of those. Big Pun is a more credible tough guy -- "Beware" is chilling. Tribe tempers the usual braggadocio with an R&B groove, but Jay-Z wins the award for originality by turning a song from "Annie" into a hit.

My pick: "Vol. 2...Hard Knock Life"
The Grammy: "Vol. 2...Hard Knock Life"

Look for Lauryn Hill to steal the Grammy for R&B Album from the great Aretha Franklin. In Metal, Nashville Pussy will win for "Fried Chicken and Coffee." That track is off the album called "Let Them Eat Pussy." What else is there to say?