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Why Moscow throws itself in the middle
(CNN) -- Russia's role of diplomatic intermediary that it adopts in standoffs with Iraq over weapons inspections is the continuation of a Cold War relationship.
Iraq was a client of the former Soviet Union, which supplied arms and expertise in exchange for access to oil and regional influence.
At the Soviet Union's disintegration in 1991, Russia inherited these ties, tangibly in the form of several billion dollars Baghdad still owes Moscow, and intangibly in the form of influence.
Russia's interest in negotiating a diplomatic resolution to the current situation remains two-fold: political and economic.
Political interests
The Iraqi-U.N. standoff offers the former superpower a unique chance to demonstrate it can still deliver on the world stage.
Russia agrees with the United States and other U.N. members that Iraq must destroy its chemical and biological weapons. But it opposes using force to twist Saddam Hussein's arm to comply.
Closer to home, Russian President Boris Yeltsin stands to gain at the Kremlin and among the people by trying to play up his country's influence with Iraq.
The Kremlin has two Middle East experts in its midst. Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov has known Saddam Hussein for years and learned about Iraq during his KGB days. His deputy, Viktor Posuvalyuk, is also regarded as a Middle East specialist.
Russia's international profile was raised last fall when it helped defuse a crisis over weapons inspections. Diplomats convinced Iraq to agree to readmit inspectors in exchange for Moscow's help in easing U.N. sanctions.
But efforts to negotiate with as unpredictable a player as Saddam Hussein can result in embarrassment for Moscow.
The Kremlin was quoted February 2, for example, as saying Saddam Hussein had offered eight new sites for inspection under certain conditions and was ready for talks with the chief U.N. inspector. But Baghdad promptly dismissed the report as "totally incorrect."
Economic interests
On the financial front, Russia, like France, wants to develop trade with Iraq, business that cannot get off the ground until the U.N. sanctions on Iraq are lifted.
Russia is eager to move forward with contracts with Iraq's oil industry -- contracts that are potentially worth billions of dollars. Oil brings in most of Iraq's foreign currency -- trade that is now sharply restricted under the U.N. oil-for-food deal.
Then, too, Russia wants to collect on Iraq's Soviet-era debt for weapons purchases. The tab, estimated to run some $7 billion, will not be paid until Iraq can bank hard currency.
Russia, still struggling after its shift from communism to free-market economics, must count its change as it relies for help on Western governments and organizations such as the International Monetary Fund.
That also means Russia's ability to demand a diplomatic solution for Iraq is considered to be limited somewhat by its dependence on Washington's good will to secure aid.
Iraq Standoff Main | The Dispute | The Diplomacy | Military Moves | Inside Iraq
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