Accidental nuclear war: Is the danger gone?

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By CNN Interactive Writer Beat Witschi

(CNN) -- When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, many people breathed a sigh of relief as decades of Cold War came to an end without the United States and the Soviet Union -- superpower enemies deeply divided along ideological lines -- engaging in an apocalyptic nuclear war.

The end of the Cold War era, therefore, was widely perceived as the end of the military nuclear threat to modern societies.

But now, several years later, some experts are ringing the alarm bell again, warning that the threat of accidental nuclear war is actually bigger than during the Cold War itself, when both the U.S.-led NATO and the Soviet-Warsaw pact beefed up their nuclear arsenals to frightening proportions.

In a recent article published in the New England Journal of Medicine, nuclear experts and several leading physicians warn of the threat of a nuclear showdown triggered by accident, either by Russia or the United States.

False alarms, operators who are psychologically unstable or under alcohol or drug influence, and the severe technical deterioration of Russia's early warning systems are just some of the problems that experts say could lead to an accidental nuclear launching.

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"The risk of an accidental nuclear attack has increased in recent years, threatening a public health disaster of unprecedented scale," writes co-author Dr. Lachlan Forrow of the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.

Both Russia and the United States rely on a "launch on warning" strategy, which gives them just 15 minutes to respond after detecting an enemy attack.

And "not one single second has been added" to that time, Forrow tells CNN.

According to the authors of the article, several experts consider a launch provoked by a false warning to be the most likely scenario.

False attack warnings occurred in the United States in 1979 and 1980, and a false detection by Russian systems brought the Soviets less than four minutes away from deciding on a counterattack in 1995.

In addition, thousands of U.S. forces personnel involved in operational aspects of U.S. nuclear forces have been removed from their positions because of alcohol or drug abuse or psychiatric problems, say the authors of the article.

However, experts also point out that it is very difficult, if not downright impossible, to quantify the kinds of threats mentioned above, and the statistical odds of nuclear war by accident.

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Leading nuclear expert Bruce G. Blair, senior fellow in the foreign policy studies program at the Brookings Institution, has called on the U.S. military and Congress to "take all nuclear missiles off high alert and remove the capability of rapid launch."

Such a de-alert command could be given and implemented very quickly, virtually overnight, and would immediately lower the risk of nuclear war by accident -- often referred to as the "hair trigger" scenario, he says.

Forrow told CNN that the de-alerting of nuclear missiles should be seen as an "urgent interim measure on the road to abolition of all nuclear weapons."

However, the de-alerting of missiles can be seen only as a partial means to lower the threat of accidental nuclear warfare, says Stephen P. Cohen, of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security at the University of Illinois.

As U.S.-Russian relations are generally good, Moscow does not pose a major problem at this point, Cohen says. And the policy of "stabilizing the nuclear establishment in Russia" has been generally successful, he adds.

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But he also underlined that, in light of the weakening of military command structures in Russia, low morale in the armed forces, and the breakup of central authority, there is still also the possibility of a "lone madman or terrorist" who could trigger a nuclear disaster.

Add to that the same aging technology that has caused numerous problems on the Mir space station, and the threat of an accidental nuclear war with horrific consequences increases, Blair tells CNN.

"There is no question that the nuclear threat is bigger now than it was during the Cold War," Cohen says, referring to the suspected nuclear program of Communist North Korea, or the recent nuclear testing by India and Pakistan -- a development that has taken the rivalry between the two countries to a dangerous new level.

"They went nuclear in an amateurish way," Cohen said. "India mainly did it for domestic political reasons," rather than as part of a comprehensive military strategy.

Jane's consultant Paul Beaver agrees that other countries hold greater threats than Russia. "I'm much more concerned about such countries as Iran, Iraq, North Korea and Syria," he says.

It is crucial, Cohen says, that the United States as well as the international community try to improve "state relations" in order to defuse potentially disastrous political disputes.

However, not everybody agrees with the tenet that the threat of accidental nuclear war has increased since the collapse of Communism.

On the whole, Beaver says, "the world is certainly a much safer place now," with such treaties as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTB).

"What we need, however," he says, "are meaningful treaties -- not rhetoric."

Political leaders and parliaments of the treaty signatories must have the courage and willpower to ratify and implement the disarmament documents, he says.

For Russia in particular, Beaver says, it is important that the West keep exerting pressure on Moscow to ratify the START treaty.

In general, he says, "We must get away from this nonsensical attitude of 'I won't disarm before you do.'"