The real risks of Russia's nuclear arsenal

By Dr. Mark Galeotti
Special to CNN Interactive

(CNN) -- The latest Russian crisis has quickly, and inevitably, assumed a nuclear dimension. The danger is real, but it's more subtle and less immediate than exaggerated reports of "loose nukes" would suggest.

It was coincidental that U.S. President Clinton's recent visit to Moscow saw the signing of the START II arms reduction treaty, But no one can be relaxed about the possible disintegration of a country armed with 22,000 nuclear weapons.

Amid the political upheaval sparked when Russian President Boris Yeltsin fired Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko in late August, potential presidential contender Alexander Lebed warned of a nuclear rerun of the 1917 revolution.

There is certainly no lack of missiles or material. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, its warheads were moved back onto Russian soil. Russian storage facilities were massively overloaded, the security forces were over- stretched and accounting of warheads' movements and locations all but disappeared. Persistent reports suggest that 23 warheads actually went missing from one depot in 1992.

Since then, though, conditions have improved, not least owing to U.S. pressure. All the same, while Russia's warfighting stocks of around 10,000 warheads are guarded by special troops, minefields and electrified fences, many of the storage facilities holding the rest are poorly protected.

When even an army captain earns less than a municipal bus driver (if he is paid at all), corruption and theft are rife. Besides, Russia has 1,200 tons of plutonium and highly enriched uranium. Some of this is in research sites with no more than an unarmed nightwatchmen and a padlock on the door: hardly deterrents to terrorists or the Russian "mafiya."

So why doesn't every terrorist group or "rogue state" have its nuclear bomb?

Firstly, the mafiya -- which has thrived thanks to its protectors in the Kremlin - - avoids a trade that might force the government to launch a serious crackdown. Most peddlers are small-scale thieves and scam artists with small amounts of nuclear material.

Secondly, Russian and Western intelligence agencies closely monitor them. They are even tripping over each other. In one recent operation, officers of one security service posing as "buyers" tried to arrest a gang of "sellers," only to realize that they were also Western agents mounting their own "sting."

Finally, who really wants a bomb? Many "rogue states" already have the technology and material but cannot put the two together or, more often, fear the international response were they to do so. Similarly, any terrorist group with a confirmed nuclear capability would immediately become a top target for almost every global intelligence agency and find no other country prepared to shelter it.

But there are real dangers:

• The environmental risk.
  With nuclear warheads crammed into overcrowded storage facilities, it is only a matter of time before there is a serious accident, probably involving a leak of radioactive pollutants. If these make their way into the water supply, then they could pose a health risk to rival the Chernobyl disaster. As with Chernobyl, the effects would not stop at Russia's borders.

• The military risk.
  Russia's army has effectively collapsed. Of its almost 1.5 million troops, probably no more than around 200,000 are genuinely fit and willing to fight. As a result, Russia must depend solely on nuclear forces to deter or fight a war. If in the future Russia becomes involved in any conflict, it very quickly will have no option but to use nuclear weapons.

• The political risk.
  The more people talk of the danger of "loose nukes," the greater the chance that some hungry, demoralized unit or commander might see the weapons in their care as their biggest bargaining chip with a Kremlin that doesn't seem to care about them any more. When warheads become political markers, that really will be the time to worry.

Dr Mark Galeotti is director of the Organised Russian & Eurasian Crime Research Unit at Keele University, UK. He is also a regular columnist for 'Jane's Intelligence Review.' He has acted as a consultant for many national and international bodies, including the UK and US governments and NATO.