"I don't know how they're going to organize it all, but we'll start working as soon as we can," Zhubi told The Associated Press. A pediatrician, Zhubi was examining children in a refugee camp in Macedonia.

Although the fighting has just ended and NATO says the danger is not over, some of the estimated 860,000 refugees are already planning their return to the devastated province.

"The venturesome ones will go back first," said Barnett Rubin of the Council on Foreign Relations. "The heads of household and young men will see what the situation is. If it's secure, then their families will follow."

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has estimated that at least 350,000 houses in Kosovo have been seriously damaged. The U.N. Children's Fund says massive damage was inflicted on hospitals, clinics and schools, and that doctors, nurses and teachers are in severely short supply.

Rebuilding or repairing the institutions, businesses, farms and infrastructure will cost billions of dollars and take years. And in Kosovo, where the temperature begins to drop in September, winter is not far off.

"I'm almost tempted to say that the easiest part is behind us," said Simon Serfaty, director of European studies for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Now the 'fun' is beginning. I don't think anyone would deny the immensity of the task."

KFOR key to refugees' return

Serfaty says four considerations are paramount in Kosovo's next chapter:

Deployment of the peacekeeping force

The care, feeding and safety of the refugees

Reconstruction

The fate of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic

As many as 50,000 Kosovo Force (KFOR) troops are expected to maintain the peace in Kosovo. Without them, experts agree, few refugees would return.

"My sense is that if they can be assured that NATO troops will keep Serbian forces out of the area, many would be willing to go back," said Anthony Arend, a professor at Georgetown University.

Another concern is whether the Kosovo Liberation Army will abide by the peace agreement. KLA Cmdr. Ramush Haradinaj told The Associated Press that while the KLA is "still basically at war" with the Serbs, his men will disarm as long as KFOR controls the province.

But as Serfaty put it, "The KLA believes it has accounts to settle based on the Serb brutality of the past 75 days." Seeing what the Serbs have done to Kosovo could rouse the KLA to seek revenge.

Rubin says that if Yugoslavia becomes "an embittered, pariah state, it could engage in covert actions like planting car bombs" that could make life even more difficult for Kosovo's ethnic Albanians.

Force and coercion

Thus the need for peacekeeping troops, although how long they will be required is uncertain. The U.N. peace plan calls for a 12-month deployment that can be extended indefinitely.

"My sense of Milosevic is that he understands nothing but force and coercion," said Arend. "In the long run, that may be the only thing that will work."

Arend says "the long run" could last "several years," while Rubin says "from five to 50 years."


Russian peacekeeping troops enter Yugoslavia on Friday

Another consideration is whether Russian troops will be part of the peacekeeping force. Russia strenuously opposed the NATO bombing campaign, and its participation in the peacekeeping mission was hung up on procedural issues.

One was whether Russian soldiers would be incorporated into the NATO chain of command. The other was its demand for a Russian-controlled sector in Kosovo, something the West vigorously opposed.

"I hope there is Russian participation," Arend said. "The whole operation in the Balkans has largely alienated them. And in light of the recent NATO expansion [former Russian allies Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO this spring], I worry about them being disaffected."

'A major test'

Given its economic woes, uncertain leadership and sizable nuclear arsenal, a disaffected Russia is something the international community is eager to avoid.

But on Friday, June 11, two days after the peace accord was signed, 500 Russian soldiers entered Belgrade with KFOR painted on their trucks. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said the troops were a token force, and would move into Kosovo only after an agreement had been reached with KFOR.

Jim Hooper of the Balkan Action Council called the Russians' move "a worrying development" and "a major test of the Clinton administration's steadfastness of purpose."

"Milosevic always pushes right away after he cuts a deal to see if the other side is going to abide by it," said Hooper. "This time he's working with the Russians to test us and see what our resolve is. They want to see NATO constrained, circumscribed, undermined and weakened."

If there are loopholes in the peace agreement, Hooper said, the Serbs and Russians will find them. "They'd like to have a Russian-controlled zone in the north where there would also be Serb forces, which would mean that fewer refugees would be able to go back there."

Tension that had been building between NATO and Russia for weeks peaked on June 12 with an armed confrontation between NATO and Russian troops at the main Kosovo airport. The potentially explosive situation was defused six days later when the U.S. and Russia agreed to a plan that would deploy 3,600 Russian soldiers in the American, German and French peacekeeping sectors.

'In bad humor'

Refugees returning to Kosovo will have to be fed and housed, and they must also deal with the aftershock of their experiences.

"They'll need help with the discovery of bodies and the psychological traumas," Serfaty said. Some, he said, may be "in bad humor" when the enormity of their situation sinks in.

The question, said Serfaty, is whether their anger will be directed at the Serbs who laid waste to Kosovo, or at NATO forces who also did some damage.

Also a concern is the relationship between the returning ethnic Albanian refugees and Kosovo's Serbs, who made up just 10 percent of the prewar population of 2.1 million.

Many of the Serbs are said to be leaving. Those who remain face suspicion at best and vengeance at worst. This, after all, is a part of the world where even ancient grievances are not easily forgotten

"A few well-placed assassinations or acts of terrorism will serve to scare them away," said Rubin.

"I would never go back and live with them after what they did to us," said Nexhmia Ukzmalji, an ethnic Albanian in a Macedonian refugee camp. "I'd rather stay in this tent forever than go back and live with them."

'The key is change in Serbia'

The European Union has indicated that it is prepared to assume a significant part of the cost of rebuilding Kosovo. It will hold a "pledging conference" in a few weeks to bring representatives from the 15 EU governments together with those from the United States, Canada, Japan and other countries and financial institutions.

EU officials have refused to estimate how much it will cost, however, and it is unclear who will pay for the damages in Serbia -- especially those caused by misdirected NATO bombs or missiles.

"I think it would be an important goodwill gesture on the U.S.'s part to offer to pay for the repair, say, of the Chinese Embassy," Arend said. "But I suspect it would want any general aid to Yugoslavia to be part of an overall European effort. I don't think it will sit well with Congress to say we're going to rebuild what we just spent a lot of money to destroy."


U.S. Marines landing in Greece

President Bill Clinton has said the United States will not help Yugoslavia rebuild as long as Milosevic -- "an indicted war criminal" -- is in power.

"I think the key is change in Serbia," said Rubin. "The U.S. should reach out to the democratic forces in Serbia, which are embittered toward us. They hold the key to stability in the region. If the Serbs get rid of Milosevic because they oppose his policies, it would be much more effective than if he was arrested by a NATO commando squad."

'The feeling of being home'

"With Milosevic in power, there's bound to be tension," Arend said. "Troops are the only thing that prevent that from escalating. Milosevic is still Milosevic."

Serfaty noted that while NATO "demonized the leadership in Belgrade, it did not dehumanize the majority of Serbs. There remains some measure of perceived civility among the Serbs. The moment Milosevic is out of Belgrade, it will be much easier for refugees to want to go back."

Of Milosevic, Serfaty said, "I expect him to be gone by this time next year, either because the Serbs will force him out or terminate him in one fashion or another. He will not be able to outlive this catastrophe. The Serbs want to get back into the European community in which they belong, and that cannot be done with him at the helm."

Pediatrician Zhubi and her husband, also a doctor, left Pristina two months ago after being told they weren't wanted at a suburban clinic because they were ethnic Albanians. Her husband was beaten and their house was burned, but they are eager to go home.

"I have no home to go back to," said Zhubi, "but I have the soil. It's better there than here -- just the feeling of being home."

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