(CNN) -- The last time Nigerians voted in a general election, in 1993, the results were annulled, and the man who would have been president was thrown in jail.

It is only with the death of Gen. Sani Abacha last June that Nigerians dare to dream again of democracy and economic stability. Both have eluded the country since winning independence from Britain in 1960.

For 28 of its 38 years of independence, the nation has been ruled by generals who have siphoned off billions of dollars of oil revenues. Nigeria's per capita income stood proudly as the world's 33rd highest just two decades ago. Now, it has sunk to the 13th lowest, below even that of Haiti.

Dictators have repeatedly promised democratic reform, only to renege on their pledge and clamp down with martial law. Nigeria has seen six coups and a presidential assassination.

But Abacha's successor, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, has fanned hopes that free, democratic elections could finally be on the way. He has freed political prisoners and started the nation on the road toward civilian rule.

But many Nigerians are skeptical. Only once has the military turned over power to civilians. The last true civilian regime Nigeria has known was ousted in 1983.

The contrast between the promising potential and disappointing reality has become commonplace in modern Nigeria, the most populous nation in Africa and one of the continent's richest collections of natural resources.

It is home to nearly 110 million people, a sixth of Africa's population -- a patchwork of more than 250 different ethnic groups sewn together by European colonialism and held intact by military dictatorship.

Even if the elections go forward, many fear this latest promise of democracy could actually splinter the country along ethnic lines.

Three ethnic groups -- the Yoruba, who live primarily in the southwest, the Igbo from the southeast and the predominantly Muslim Hausa in the north -- account for most of Nigeria's population. But the Hausa have traditionally held the reins of power, providing the bulk of the military regimes that have run the country.

When tensions between Hausas and Igbos reached a peak in the late 1960s, the Igbos declared independence, igniting a brutal civil war that led to the deaths of more than a million people by starvation.

Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba, was elected president in 1993, but the election was annulled and Abacha, a Hausa, had Abiola imprisoned. When Abiola died in July 1998 while still a political prisoner, riots broke out between Yorubas and Hausas in Lagos and other southwestern cities, leaving at least 55 people dead.

Many are concerned an election could lead to renewed fighting between ethnic groups all across Nigeria. Some intellectuals want to convene a national conference to discuss restructuring the state, perhaps even dismantling it if necessary.

For them, the recent lessons of Rwanda and Burundi are not forgotten. They would rather see the death of Nigeria than risk setting a course for genocide.

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