news analysis:
The big bucks are on Bush; now let's ask the people

By Bruce Morton CNN National Correspondent Special to CNN Interactive

(CNN) -- This was the year of the buck in politics. The big buck. The very big buck, as in, look at George W. Bush and all that money. Has it bought him the nomination? Probably.

I am old enough to remember, four years ago, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, who really likes fund-raising, proudly announcing, "I have the best friend you can have in politics -- ready money." We are not, of course, trading stories about President Gramm.

Still, the money produced a flood of publicity for Bush, a flood of endorsements -- governors, senators, Congressman -- and big-time name recognition that has him way out in front in the polls. Conventional wisdom says the nomination is his to lose.

Most condensed campaign ever

One thing different about Campaign 2000 is that it will be the most condensed ever. No state wanted to have a late primary, so all big primaries -- like California and New York -- are early. We should know who the nominees are the evening of March 7, instead of waiting for a decisive primary in May or June. The nominees will then have to figure out how to fill the yawning months between March 7 and the GOP convention in July. Solitaire? Knitting? Lots of possibilities.

The earliness of the primaries had real effects. It made money-raising a kind of first primary. The August 1999 Iowa straw poll, which should not really matter, became a real event too. Money and straw thinned the Republican field by three -- Lamar Alexander, Dan Quayle (who did not quit right away, but found his bad August finish meant he could not raise money), and Elizabeth Dole (who did well in the straw, but could not raise money anyway). Pat Buchanan departed, apparently thinking his chances are better in the Reform Party.

Elizabeth Dole withdraws from the presidential campaign in October, saying she could not raise enough money to continue

And then there was the curious case of New Hampshire Sen. Robert Smith, who quit the party to become an independent, then quit running for President. He must have noticed that when he announced a rally, nobody came. When he rejoined the GOP, he was rewarded with a committee chairmanship, proving he must be a better politician than most of us thought.

McCain's story the most compelling

Besides Bush the Republicans are left with Steve Forbes, whose inherited fortune will let him keep running for as long as he wants, although so far he seems not to have found a base; with Gary Bauer, who wants to be the candidate of Christian conservatism but must compete with Forbes for their votes; with Orrin Hatch, an intelligent senator whose presence in the race remains a puzzle; with Alan Keyes, a frequent presidential and senatorial candidate who has never won; and with John McCain.

McCain has the most compelling personal story: Navy officer whose father and grandfather were admirals, who fought in Vietnam and spent five and a half years as a prisoner of war.

McCain is not campaigning in Iowa, concentrating instead on New Hampshire and South Carolina. In New Hampshire -- whose voters are contrarian and like underdogs (Gary Hart in 1984, Buchanan last time, though neither won) -- polls show McCain and "W" running even.

McCain's campaign probably wishes the election were this week. Bush will be spending more time and more money, meaning lots of TV ads, in New Hampshire. His people say he will campaign full time in Iowa and New Hampshire in January. Nationally, he remains the favorite.

How to find the real Al Gore

For the Democrats, Vice President Al Gore is the establishment candidate. He has everybody who is anybody in Iowa. He even has the governor of New Hampshire's husband running his campaign there. And yet, and yet. Why doesn't he know who he is?

Maybe moving the campaign headquarters to Nashville was a good idea, but Gore is really a Washingtonian, who spent summers in Tennessee. Maybe olive-colored suits and sweaters are good, and cowboy boots. But did you need a consultant who was making more than you to tell you that?

There is a real Al Gore. He is the relaxed guy who on long flights chats easily with reporters on Air Force 2 and makes occasional jokes. But the search for a public personality seems unnatural, forced.

Does Bradley have a chance?

Then there is Bill Bradley. Two suits, both rumpled. One tie? I'm not sure. A sweater. But glamour too. I mean, there he was in Madison Square Garden, surrounded by more or less the entire National Basketball Association's Hall of Fame. Kareem. Bill Russell. Earl the Pearl. Cooze. You name them. Who wouldn't pay for a session with those guys? Yes, this is the same Bradley who quit watching hoops after he retired from the game. But that was then. This is now.

Bradley is the candidate with big ideas, he says, and his speeches bear that out to some degree. He has laid out a far-reaching health care proposal, more extensive than Gore's, and one that Gore says would be ruinously expensive. Bradley has other proposals as well, like one for reducing child poverty. He is earnest, serious. Voters I have talked with seem to like him. Polls in the two early test states indicate a wash. Gore is well ahead in Iowa. New Hampshire is close, and some think Bradley will win there.

Both Republicans and Democrats had their share of memorable moments this year. Lenore Fulani, a radical black feminist, endorsing Pat Buchanan, who is none of those. Donald Trump appearing anywhere -- there's a moment. Warren Beatty: Bulworth for President. And one moment we will not have, now that Bob Smith's gone back to being a Republican. We could have had the "comb-over" primary: Smith, Trump, maybe Buchanan, you decide. Just as well it won't happen.

Soon it will be the voters' turn. At last. Thank heaven.

Bruce Morton, one of CNN's leading national correspondents, has covered Vietnam, Watergate, three decades of national election campaigns and the U.S. space program from Gemini to Apollo. He delivers an essay, "The Last Word," on CNN's Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer, Sundays at midnight (ET).