More than money: Denmark and the euro
By Robin Oakley, CNN.com European Political Editor
COPENHAGEN, Denmark (CNN) -- In theory the Danes are voting in their referendum on Thursday, September 28 on whether their country should join the euro, the single European currency.
In practice it has become a much wider debate about the degree of Danish commitment to the European Union and the small nation's identity.
Many Danes are suspicious of the drive towards greater integration in the EU.
It is a debate that has brought together some strange political bedfellows. And with referendums on the euro to come both in Sweden and the UK, it is a debate that could have wide repercussions.
A "no" vote in Denmark could delay both those referendums. Certainly it would make it harder for pro-euro campaigners in Sweden and Britain.
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"A 'no' vote from the only country whose electors have been given the chance to vote on the subject would further weaken the embattled euro on the foreign exchange markets."
Robin Oakley
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Denmark election
coverage on
CNN International
Read and view CNN.com European Political Editor Robin Oakley's four-part series on the Danish euro vote as it appeared on World Business This Morning and World Business Today, Monday, September 25 through Thursday, September 28:
On Wednesday, September 27, Q&A with Riz Khan focused on Denmark and the euro.
On Thursday, September 28, CNN International Insight aired The euro: Denmark decides.
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And a "no" vote from the only country whose electors have been given the chance to vote on the subject would further weaken the embattled euro on the foreign exchange markets.
In Denmark the "no" campaigners include greens, communists and euro-sceptic veterans in the June Movement like Jens Peter Bonde. He says: "If you have a single currency you need a single government and a single parliament. If you are not prepared to have those then you shouldn't have a single currency."
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Prime Minister Rasmussen campaigns for a "yes" vote in the euro referendum
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Pia Kjaersgaard, leader of the far-right Danish People's Party, echoes the right-wing nationalist identity politics now becoming more vocal across Europe, saying that too much of Denmark's sovereignty is being given away. She has linked opposition to the euro with questions about immigration and multiculturalism and forced others into tougher rhetoric on the same subject.
Public sector women are prominent among the "no" campaigners; so are pensioners, farmers and fishermen. Some of the "no" campaigners want withdrawal from the EU.
Those campaigning "yes" to the euro include Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, the government, most other main parties, major trades unions and leaders of business and industry.
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"If you have a single currency you need a single government and a single parliament. If you are not prepared to have those then you shouldn't have a single currency."
Jens Peter Bonde
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Anders Fogh Rasmussen, head of the liberal Venstre party, says influence is the key question: "As a small country we will gain influence by getting a seat at the table where important decisions are made." With the weight of the political establishment behind them, the "yes" campaigners should have a significant advantage. But the "no" campaigners have led most opinion polls.
The "yes" campaigners argue that without euro membership, Denmark would be vulnerable to capital flight and currency speculation. They say the euro will offer economic stability and that since all are agreed that Denmark should continue anyway as a member of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, shadowing the euro, it will be as well to join and to enjoy influence over decisions that will affect the country.
Professor Niels Blomgren-Hansen of the Copenhagen Business School warns that European countries that do best economically are those that show themselves to be firmly committed to the EU, and that if the Danes choose to place themselves on the fringe of Europe their economy will lose dynamism and inward investment will slow down.
But the "yes" campaigners have suffered from the euro's poor performance on foreign exchange markets. It is not easy to persuade people to vote for joining a currency that has lost 25 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar in 20 months.
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Farmers and fishermen are among the "no" vote campaigners
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Bullying fears
The campaign has been dominated by political rather than economic arguments. To many Danes, the EU's sanctions against Austria for including the far-right Freedom Party in its government coalition looked like bullying of a small country. Rasmussen was clearly relieved when he became the first European leader to announce that the sanctions on Austria were being withdrawn.
"Yes" campaigners concede that they were harmed too by Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, and French President Jacque Chirac talking about a two-tier Europe. Rasmussen was at pains to stress in a recent party conference that Denmark's traditions of high taxation and a generous welfare state would not be at risk inside the single currency, but opponents have raised worries on that issue too.
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"As a small country we will gain influence by getting a seat at the table where important decisions are made."
Anders Fogh Rasmussen
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The result of the referendum is likely to turn on whether voters indulge their political instincts, which in many cases involve a strong suspicion that Europe is integrating too far and too fast, or whether they listen to the business community whose voice has been so strongly in favour of Denmark joining the euro.
Whatever the result of what has been a surprisingly good-tempered campaign, the Danes certainly have one distinction: After six referendums on major European questions, they are likely the best-informed electorate in the EU on European affairs.
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