Analysis

For Taiwan, it's largely local politics

Cross-straight tensions aside, presidential vote marks another democratic milestone for island

By John F. Copper Special to CNN Interactive

The people of Taiwan have consistently expressed their desire for the status quo in cross-strait relations

Much has been written in the Western press about Taiwan's second direct presidential election on March 18. Attention has focused on how the election will affect U.S.-China ties, which are currently very strained.

Much less has been said about what the election means to citizens in Taiwan and how it will affect politics in that country.

What is the local perspective of this election?

First and foremost, the population views the election as a vital part of the nation's effort to democratize, a process that has been going on for a generation in local politics and at the national level for more than two decades.

Features • Taiwan picks a president with China in mind • Lee Teng-hui: A legacy hangs in the balance • Taiwan's neighbors: Keep the status quo • Analysis: After 53 years, U.S. still involved in China's civil war • Analysis: Will China take Taiwan by force? • Analysis: For Taiwan, it's largely local politics

Local democratic elections were held in Taiwan in the 1950s. Open and competitive elections at the national level began in 1980. The first two-party election was held in 1986. Taiwan's first direct presidential election was held in 1996 -- four years ago.

Many experts say democracy is firmly in place, that this election is simply a "consolidation" of that process. Yet it is significant that it will constitute Taiwan's first-ever transfer of executive power by popular vote.

Residents of Taiwan are intensely interested in the campaign. Voters know the candidates and the issues. This will certainly result in a high turnout -- 70 percent or more is expected, impressive for a nation in which no coercion to vote exists.

Five candidates are in the race. Three are leading the other two by a wide margin.

Chen Shui-bian: 'Local boy'

Chen Shui-bian

In alphabetical order, the first of the three frontrunners is Chen Shui-bian. He is known as a "local boy." He was born in the southern part of the island and excelled as a law student at Taiwan's best university.

He soon found an interest in politics, especially opposition to the ruling Nationalist Party, or KMT. Chen rose in local politics to become a national legislator. He was elected mayor of Taipei in 1994, serving until 1998.

From the beginning of his career, Chen advocated Taiwan's independence. To him, this meant "liberating" Taiwan from both the KMT and from China, but more the latter as time passed. He put such a tenet in the charter of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, under whose banner he is running.

He has talked about holding a plebiscite to determine Taiwan's future, which certainly does not translate into joining China anytime soon, if ever.

Chen is favored by those who prefer separation from China, as well as by those who believe the Nationalist Party has been in power too long and that a change of parties would make politics better and cleaner, and would benefit democracy.

He is feared by others who think he will start trouble with Beijing. If elected, he may have some difficulty governing because the legislature is controlled by the Nationalist Party.

Lien Chan: Party man

Lien Chan

Lien Chan is the Nationalist Party's candidate. He is considered Taiwanese because he speaks Taiwanese and his father was born in Taiwan. But Lien was born in China and his mother is Manchurian. He was educated in the best Chinese tradition and continued his education abroad, earning a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago.

Lien is perceived as a moderate. Most voters expect he will continue President Lee Teng-hui's policies.

Lien is helped by having a party with money and talent behind him. He is also seen as the candidate with the most experience in government. He is currently vice president, has recently served as premier, and has headed more than one ministry.

Lien is supported by the establishment and by voters who want stability and a continuation of present policies. But opponents have accused the KMT of "black gold" politics -- using its businesses to influence local politics and even organized crime.

Many people do not like Lien because of his vast personal wealth. Pundits also say he must prove he is his own man, get out from under Lee's shadow and correct what is perceived as a stiff and aristocratic manner.

James Soong: Old guard insurgent

James Soong

Soong Chu-yu, or James Soong, a former member of the Nationalist Party, is running as an independent. He was born in China of parents also born in China. He is associated with the "old regime" of Chiang Kai-shek and his son, Chiang Ching-kuo. Soong also has a good local education and a Ph.D. from Georgetown University.

Soong became well known when he headed the government information office, which handles media relations. He became seen as one of Taiwan's "best and brightest." It does not hurt that he is handsome and charismatic. In his most recent position as Taiwan governor, he built a reputation as a man of the people.

Soong's image was that of an honest and caring politician, giving him the highest opinion poll ratings going into the campaign. The Nationalist Party, however, has alleged that he misused party funds some years ago, a charge he has denied. His supporters also say the charges are false and still see him as Taiwan's "people's leader."

Soong's opponents also charge he is a "capitulator" on China policy, contending his victory would undermine the political party system and thus democracy. Some will also not vote for him because he is not Taiwanese, though he has maintained good relations with all ethnic groups in Taiwan and is considered a unifier by many.

Spoiler candidates

The other two candidates are spoilers. Hsu Hsin-liang was formerly a leader of the opposition DPP. He decided to run on his own when it was apparent Chen would be the party's nominee. Hsu advocates a more conciliatory policy toward China, although he was a strong advocate of Taiwan's independence in the past.

Li Ao is Taiwan's foremost public critic and writer. He is sponsored by the New Party (a faction that left the KMT in 1993), although he does not consider himself a party person.

Li has caused controversy by criticizing the other candidates with his well-known wit. Though critical of Soong, he also tells voters Soong is the best candidate.

Campaign nasty even without Beijing's meddling

Lee Teng-hui

Although Taiwan's citizenry feels good about the country's embrace of democracy, they are not happy about alleged "black gold." This may offset any advantage Lien may derive from the KMT's money and expertise.

The same goes for Lee Teng-hui's support. Lee is popular and has tremendous political influence, even if he does leave office in May. But Lee's attempts to help Lien keep his protege in his shadow and may be counterproductive.

Further, some voters probably have been turned off by the campaign's nastiness. Candidates have been accused of stealing, sexual misconduct and other misdeeds. They have filed law suits, leaked information, created scandals. Ethnic politicking and fearmongering have added to the campaign's negative character.

The major non-local campaign issue is, of course, relations with China. In February, Beijing attempted to intimidate Taiwan with a white paper saying China would use military force against Taiwan if Taipei delays unification talks for too long.

The white paper caused voters to recall China's missile tests before the 1996 presidential election and the resulting faceoff between Washington and Beijing after the White House ordered two aircraft carrier groups to the Taiwan Strait.

Leaders in Beijing have also indicated their dislike for Chen. It is uncertain how voters in Taiwan will react to China's statements. Beijing's brash actions may cause a backlash and help Chen. His poll ratings increased after Beijing issued its "white paper."

The United States says all of the candidates are fine. Some in Taiwan, however, say they think Washington prefers Lien or Soong, especially the U.S. State Department and the White House, which prefer to avoid trouble with Beijing.

All three front-runners have set forth moderate positions on relations with Beijing that differ very little from one another. The public prefers the status quo to either independence or unification (at least in the near future) by a big margin.

Why are many voters still undecided?

Economy, crime and social changes are among the issues on the minds of Taiwan's voters

Voters, as always, are concerned about the economy. But it is stable, and growth is satisfactory or better. Crime is an issue. So are labor, welfare, infrastructure, education and a host of other issues.

A large number of people report to pollsters they have not made up their minds -- more than 30 percent, according to a recent poll.

This phenomenon may reflect one or more things: a maturing democracy, confusion about the candidates, or the reluctance of people in Taiwan to reveal their choice (asking who you will vote for is considered an invasion of privacy to many).

Chen, Lien and Soong are running close in the polls, each with just over 20 percent. Soong and Chen lead, yet most people think that Lien will win because of the advantage of having the ruling party behind him.

Whoever wins, the election will mark a transition from the Lee Teng-hui era.

If Chen wins it will mean a different party rules Taiwan for the first time.

If Soong wins he will probably rejoin the Nationalist Party and reorganize it.

If Lien wins there will be less political change, though he has promised a number of significant reforms during the campaign, and he will have to strike out on his own.

In any event, what happens on March 18 will give Taiwan a new political direction likely to last for some time.

John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He has written more than 20 books on Asian and international affairs and has testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee and its subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs.