Lee Teng-hui: A legacy hangs in the balance

Lee Teng-hui is the first native-born president of Taiwan

(CNN) -- Although he is 77 years old and is not running for re-election, perhaps no one has a bigger stake in the outcome of Taiwan's March 18 presidential vote than does Lee Teng-hui. As he nears the end of his 12-year tenure as Taiwan's president, Lee's legacy is hanging in the balance.

Will he be revered as the architect of democracy in Taiwan and the leader whose daring initiatives set the island resolutely on the path toward independence from China? Or will he be remembered for something less?

"The election is certainly going to alter his status and change his legacy," said John Copper, professor of international studies at Rhodes College in Memphis. "Depending on who wins, the attitude of the government toward Lee will be very different."

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The toughness and determination that have marked Lee's controversial presidency show no sign of fading as the crucial vote nears.

While he is technically eligible for another four-year term, Lee has kept his promise that he would not run. But he is far from a lame duck. He is more like a fighting cock, refusing to back down from his bold "state-to-state" declaration to mainland China in July 1999 and turning up the heat on a bitter rival who stands a chance of winning the presidency.

Defacto president?

"Lee is playing a very important role in this election," said Suisheng Zhao, associate professor of East Asian politics at Colby College in Maine. "He has very strong support among Taiwanese voters. He's chairman of the KMT [Kuomintang], which is the largest party and the ruling party. If his candidate wins, he can still be very influential."

Lee holds a copy of "Taiwan's Viewpoint," a book that sums up his quest for a separate Taiwanese identity

A victory by Lee's protege, Vice President Lien Chan, probably would enable Lee to maintain his position as head of the KMT (Nationalist Party), Copper said.

"Lee wants to hang on to power," Copper said. "He's head of the party and he doesn't have to give that up if he leaves the presidency. He could stay at the helm and, in effect, be the de facto president for one or two years."

But what if Chen Shui-bian, the candidate of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, wins?

"Lee will have to take the blame by the party for the election defeat and most problems that occur in the new administration," Copper said. "But I think Chen would allow him to stay around and be an elder statesman."

Bitter rivalry

Possibly the worst outcome for Lee in the presidential race, Copper said, would be a win by independent candidate James Soong.

The KMT has filed a lawsuit against Soong, accusing him of embezzling $11.7 million from the party when he was a high-ranking Nationalist. Attorneys for Soong said that Lee approved the transfer of funds for party operations and that Soong never embezzled the money. Lee has denied knowledge of the money and called Soong a liar.

"If Soong wins, he will call a KMT meeting and expel Lee -- and maybe even do more than that," Copper said. "Soong could draw charges of corruption against him. Lee will have to leave the party and maybe even leave the country."

It would be a sad end to a long and remarkable career.

Lee returns in 1995 to Cornell University where he earned his Ph.D. in 1968. He was a professor of economics in Taipei before entering politics.

Unlike many in Taiwan's political hierarchy who fled to the island in the late 1940s as the Communists seized China, Lee was born in Taiwan in 1923. He grew up on a rice and tea farm in a small village in the northern part of the island.

Lee showed his academic brilliance early. During the Japanese occupation he gained admittance to Kyoto Imperial University in Japan where he studied agricultural economics. He also studied at National Taiwan University, and taught there until 1952, before winning a scholarship to Iowa State University. In 1968, he received a Ph.D. in agricultural economics from Cornell University in New York.

Party loyalist turns reformer

He eventually left the academic world, managing to rise above the discrimination and constraints aimed at native Taiwanese to become a political star. He was a trusted figure in the inner circle of President Chiang Ching-kuo, the son of the legendary Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek. When the younger Chiang died in January 1988, Lee succeeded him.

Vowing to expand the modest political reforms begun by his predecessor, Lee was elected president in his own right in April 1990. Within months he convened a National Affairs Conference to advise him on further constitutional reforms.

By the end of 1991, Lee had forced all the old legislators to retire, eroding one of Taiwan's historic links to the mainland. Mayors of the major cities and the governor of "Taiwan Province" became directly elected, rather than appointed by the central government.

Having transformed municipal governments, Lee turned his attention to the higher strata.

Lee celebrates his 1996 presidential victory

China watched uneasily and grew increasingly vociferous in its opposition. When Lee organized the 1996 direct election of the president, long-simmering issues finally came to a boil. Groups advocating outright independence for the island were allowed to field candidates, as were groups firmly opposed to further reforms, fearing an invasion by China.

Beijing's military display during the 1996 election was a potent reminder of the potential dangers facing Taiwan, but it did little to dissuade voters from choosing Lee as their president by a healthy majority.

It was not the first time Lee had incurred China's wrath. In 1995 U.S. President Bill Clinton allowed Lee to make a private visit to the United States, bowing to pressure from Taiwan's supporters in the U.S. Congress. Beijing lashed out at Lee, as it would do repeatedly over the next several years.

Toward a Taiwan identity

In 1999, during NATO's campaign against Yugoslavia over Kosovo, a U.S. missile struck the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Washington insisted it was an accident. Beijing maintained otherwise.

With U.S.-China relations at their lowest in years, some observers say the time was ripe for Lee's government to raise itself to an equal footing with Beijing by demanding that future dealings between China and Taiwan be conducted on a state-to-state basis.

It was the closest Lee had come to declaring Taiwan's independence as an eventual goal. Although the statements he made following his announcement reiterated Taiwan's desire for eventual reunification with a "democratic" China, the message had been delivered: Taiwan was a sovereign state and expected to be treated as such in any discussion of reunification.

It remains to be seen whether Lee's provocative stance with China will yield more than just symbolic gains for Taiwan independence. But many analysts agree that Lee has done much to build democracy, a stable economy and a strong sense of identity in Taiwan.

Lee summed up this sense of identity in an article he wrote for a recent edition of Foreign Affairs:

"To convey a sense of the popular will on Taiwan today, I now refer to my fellow citizens as 'New Taiwanese,' meaning those who are willing to fight for the prosperity and survival of their country, regardless of when they or their forebears arrived on Taiwan and regardless of their provincial heritage or native language," Lee wrote. "This fresh national identity based on the New Taiwanese consciousness, holding that the people of Taiwan all share a common destiny, has gradually harmonized the populace and provided a stable middle ground for Taiwan's political development."

Carol Clark of CNN Interactive contributed to this report.