Dearden

By Stephen Dearden

Since the early 1990s, immigration into Western Europe has risen dramatically, both as a result of the political changes in Eastern Europe -- in 1992 Germany alone received 1.2 million migrants -- and increased migration to the southern states of the European Union.

During the same period the number of asylum applications has also risen dramatically. In 1985, for instance, Germany received only 73,832 applications. By 1993 this figure had risen to 322,600. In the UK, likewise, the number increased from 5,000 in 1985 to 80,000 in 2000.

The magnitude of these flows has led to increasing debate about the economic, social and political impact of immigration on Western Europe.

The principal economic gain from immigration ostensibly lies in the increase in the supply of labor it provides. Theoretically this should enhance the productive capacity of the host economy.

This assumes, however, that the host economy actually needs an increased labor supply, either because it lacks the capacity to automate or has no existing unemployment. This has hardly been the European experience.

Immigration has significant implications for those working in the sectors in which immigrants are employed. It is generally recognized, for instance, that immigration can have a depressing effect on wage levels, which is why historically many trade unions have opposed it.

Continuing immigrant inflow allows an economy to avoid the structural changes necessary for sustaining growth, such as investment in the training and education of its own workforce. It must be questioned, however, whether this is a sensible or a sustainable long?term strategy.

The one area where immigration does offer an unambiguous economic gain is where it supplies a specific skill. The recent recruitment drives for IT specialists from India by the UK and German governments are good examples.

Europe, however, is a labor market of such size that localized skill shortages should normally be capable of being met within the EU. The fact that it can't do so suggests a serious structural problem in the European economy that governments ought to be addressing -- rather than simply relying on the short-term expedient of bringing in skilled immigrant workers from abroad.

Unemployment, health concerns and language issues among immigrants can also place economic burdens on the host country.

Although economic considerations dominate much of the debate about immigration, its social and political implications are equally significant.

Despite attempts in Germany to preserve the myth of temporary migrant communities, the experience across most of Europe is of large permanent immigrant communities that receive equal political rights as the indigenous population.

Where these communities are substantial and homogenous, they will increasingly make their influence felt in the political system. They may, for instance, influence the host state's foreign policy towards the immigrants' home countries.

The introduction of heterogeneous religious and cultural values may also make it more difficult to maintain a political consensus in Europe. Although politics is the business of the reconciliation of conflicting interests, these conflicts are likely to become more acute in diverse societies.

Communities place considerable value upon their shared culture. They may regard the demands of multiculturalism as too high a price to pay for any economic gain.

Stephen Dearden is an immigration specialist at Manchester Metropolitan University in Manchester, England.

Saskia Sassen argues for the PRO side