Stampede for oil, rise of Islamic militants transforming Central Asian republics
By Vicken Cheterian
Transitions Online
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ALMATY, Kazakhstan -- Cafes and restaurants are popping up like mushrooms in the Kazakh city of Almaty these days. So are foreign oilmen. In an Irish pub, a group of British oil workers, who have just returned from the steppes near the Caspian Sea, chat over imported beer.
Jeremy Smith has worked in the Persian Gulf in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. "I enjoy being here," he said, adding that he finds the work challenging, the pay good and Almaty a "fun place."
In the last 10 years, many foreign entrepreneurs and politicians have discovered the former Soviet republics of Central Asia as a new El Dorado for petrodollars. Last year's discovery of the huge Kashagan offshore oil field in western Kazakhstan, with its estimated potential of 10 billion barrels, got the oilmen and their companies cheering and thirsty for more. Since the fall of communism, the gold rush for oil and the rise of Islamic militant groups have given the region newfound strategic significance in the eyes of the West and Russia.
Foreign direct investment in the five countries of the region totaled $7.8 billion, according to the World Bank's World Development Indicators for 1995-99. Much of this investment has come in response to the oil rush. Companies such as Chevron, British Gas, Agip and Texaco have sought a piece of the pie. Meanwhile, the local ruling elites have been leading extravagantly wealthy lives financed by oil exports in Kazakhstan.
In the mid-1990s, politicians, diplomats and journalists declared that up to 200 billion barrels of oil were lying under the Caspian Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has scaled back those estimates substantially, putting the figure at some 18 to 35 billion barrels, compared with U.S. reserves of 22 billion barrels.
The region also boasts gas in Turkmenistan as well as cotton and gold in Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan's gas production more than tripled between 1998 and 2000 and is expected to continue to grow.
But analysts say that oil revenues are polarizing Central Asia in a manner reminiscent of the Middle East. Many people have fallen into unemployment over the past decade, and average living standards are sliding. According to World Bank figures, gross national product per capita in Kyrgyzstan fell from $710 to $300 between 1995 and 1999, and nearly 70 percent of people in Tajikistan are living in poverty.
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Meanwhile, the oil rush has done little to open up the political systems in the region. Most Central Asian states are still run by former Communist leaders. The presidents of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan all served on the Communist Party politburo in the Soviet era.
Like their predecessors in the single-candidate elections of the Soviet period, the current Central Asian presidents have repeatedly won more than 90 percent of the vote in "elections" and "referendums" -- a distinction that has led both domestic and foreign analysts to dub them "the 90 percent men." The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has consistently criticized elections in Central Asia and ruled that votes are neither free nor fair.
Concerning Western criticism of authoritarian rule in Kyrgyzstan, Askar Aitmatov, the Kyrgyz presidential adviser on foreign affairs, said, "We are now taking our first steps toward democratization." The West should realize that "this is a long process," he added, and that the major problem in his country and the region is the need for massive investments to help restructure economies.
Clashes between Islamic groups, authorities
As the oil rush has been transforming the region, another force has started to make itself felt in Central Asia over the past decade: Islamic militant groups. Poverty and repression have contributed to a rebirth of Islam among Tajiks, Uzbeks, the Kyrgyz and other groups in the region.
During the Soviet era, Moscow attempted to stifle Islam in the traditionally Muslim region of Central Asia through a mixture of religious persecution and Communist indoctrination. The new governments in the region also have done their best to stamp out the new signs of Islamic militant groups. In Uzbekistan, a man who grows a beard runs the risk of Uzbek special services searching and even arresting him.
There also have been clashes between Islamic groups and the authorities. Over the last two summers, a guerrilla force called the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has been carrying out raids on targets in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan from its hideouts in the mountains of Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Fighting between Kyrgyz forces and Islamic militants from Uzbekistan last year left up to 95 people dead.
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Russia and the United States have pledged to help the Central Asian authorities repel any future attacks by Islamist rebels. The FBI has given assistance and training to the Uzbek authorities to fight terrorism and narcotics trading; Russia is sending armored vehicles and helicopters worth $30 million to Uzbekistan.
But not everybody is buying it. Yerlan Karin, an Almaty-based political analyst, said the ruling circles were exaggerating and exploiting the danger of Islamic groups "in order to divert attention of the population away from internal political issues."
Vicken Cheterian is a journalist who has covered the Caucasus and Central Asia for European papers. He is the director of Cimera, a Geneva, Switzerland-based organization working in media development and governance.
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