(IDG) -- As large corporations test the year-2000 readiness of their IT systems and finalize contingency plans, it would appear that apocalyptic year-2000 images of yesteryear are giving way to predictions of relatively minor glitches at home.

But this century's greatest mystery has only just begun.

No matter how well IT managers feel they have managed their year-2000 remediation at home -- and even with key business partners domestically -- the wild card factor in the global year-2000 game will be from other nations.

With reports of lagging efforts and a scarcity of reliable information from many countries, corporations with even the most bulletproof systems need to stay alert as business partners, subsidiaries, and infrastructure providers worldwide click through the date change.

"There are significant information gaps that make it difficult for us to assess how serious the Y2K problem will be around the world," said Gen. John Gordon, deputy director of the U.S. CIA, in a written statement to the Government Readiness Subcommittee of the Senate's Armed Services Committee in February.

Part of the problem with trying to assess preparedness globally lies in the prevalence of industry self-assessments, which have been likened to allowing students to grade their own tests -- it's tempting to change the results to make the outcome appear more positive.

Moreover, with information changing rapidly, reports are outdated before they are published. For example, a major congressional review of year-2000 preparedness and contingency planning released early this year was based on surveys and other information gathered months ago -- in some instances nearly one year ago.

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Despite the unreliable information, it is increasingly clear that not enough will be done to stave off at least some problems, even if those remain localized and amount to, as some have said, "a bump in the road." Some roads will be bumpier than others.

Perhaps most alarming, Russia and China remain among the countries whose preparations are viewed as lagging. Information on remediation efforts has been sparse.

Whether the unpreparedness overseas will hit close to home is still a matter of debate. But on the stage of the global economy, no country can hide. This report will focus on the global readiness of four key global industries: finance, utilities, telecommunications, and transportation. Although each has a different story, one common theme connects them all: everything is linked.

Finance: Counting on cool customers
Although the financial industry is a beacon of year-2000 readiness and responsibility, the whims of the consumer will hold sway over even the most stable financial institutions.
Computer glitches might be the least of the problems during the year-2000 rollover in well-prepared regions -- North America, western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Israel, among others. Unwarranted panic leading to runs on banks could be far more damaging.
Utilities: Stabilizing the source
A widespread or sustained loss of electricity as a consequence of the year-2000 computer problem has the potential to create more havoc than failures in any other utility, even if only on a local level.
Sustained power losses could affect local food supplies, medical care, the ability to get money from banks, financial market transactions, fresh water, access to accurate information, manufacturing and transportation, among other industry segments. Emergency generators aside, there is overall a greater dependence globally on a ready supply of electricity than on any other resource -- consider that power plants themselves need power to operate and that underscores the point.
Telecom: Testing broken links
Because of its interconnected nature, the global telecommunications infrastructure is perhaps the most susceptible industry to year-2000 breakdowns - and most critical to company operations. Breakdowns in the telecommunications networks could have a ripple effect in numerous industries, such as banking and financial markets, that rely heavily on communications networks.
Those tracking preparedness and testing internationally said they do not foresee communications calamities, but an ongoing survey by country of worldwide telecommunications, mobile, and satellite providers by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) suggests that carriers in many nations are lagging in preparations for the date rollover.
Transportation: Playing it safe
Until recently, the transportation sector seemed to provoke the most alarm related to the year-2000 computer problem. Scare mongers grabbed hold of a scenario of airplanes plunging from the sky, hurtling trains colliding, and imperiled food supplies from closed ports and unnavigable ships.
While there is plenty of dispute about just how prepared transportation systems are globally, the most recent spate of government and industry reports suggest that the industry, like others, is likely to encounter minor glitches, not cataclysm.

SPECIAL SECTION:
Looking at the Y2K Bug

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RELATED SITES:
The GSA Y2K Telecommunications Web Site
Federal Reserve Board Y2K Web page
Electric Utilities and Year 2000
Department of Transportation Y2K Web Site

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