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June 15, 1999
Web posted at: 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT)

In this story: Countries differ widely Problems will build RELATED STORIES, SITES

by Elinor Mills Abreu

(IDG) -- A year 2000 expert who advises governments around the world on how to prepare computer systems for the date change predicts there will be inconvenience, not chaos, after New Year's Eve.

"The biggest effect in the U.S. will be the reaction of people to media overhype of the problem. This media overreaction is actually going to cause more problems than the Y2K problem itself," said Karl Feilder in a telephone interview last week.

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"For example, I expect that some banks will have problems in providing the same service that they do at the moment, but... this does not mean that there is any risk to your money," he said. "What it does mean is that if you normally go to the bank and there would be a queue of five people in front of you, there will be a queue of 20 people in front of you because the systems are slower," or because tasks are being done manually.

Media images of long lines of bank customers might inspire panic or a run on banks, says Feilder. "But 90 percent of it will be inconvenience -- having to wait four times longer to cash a check at the bank," he predicts.

Feilder is well versed on possible year 2000 problems. In 1995, after selling off a network management software company to Microsoft, Feilder founded Greenwich Mean Time, a U.K.-based company that offers software tools to help companies diagnose year 2000 problems.

Feilder travels around the world researching how organizations are dealing, or not dealing, with the year 2000 situation. He was in Japan last week to meet with government representatives and is scheduled to talk to Dutch officials next week. He also counsels governments in England, South Africa, Australia, Namibia, Morocco, Canada, France, Italy, and Spain, among others.

Countries differ widely

"In Tokyo, the world's second largest economy, they've done virtually nothing about checking desktops for year 2000 issues," he says. "They're taking the economic Darwinism approach: If companies are too stupid to fix this problem, they deserve to die. Which is unfair, because you can't be accused of being stupid if you aren't aware of the problem."

Developing countries are particularly in a bind because they aren't aware of how significant the problem can be. Even when they are, they don't have the money to deal with it, he says.

The situation in Europe causes him more concern.

"The biggest economy in Europe is Germany. and they seem to have done almost nothing about the problem and seem to be denying that it is real," he says. "They're about two years behind [the U.S.] in understanding this problem. They've just got to the stage of worrying about who to blame. Then they'll realize it doesn't matter. What's important is they need to get on with checking their computers and making remediation plans."

Feilder notes that about 4 percent of the estimated 120 million PCs in the United States have been checked for year 2000 compliance, while fewer than half of one percent of Germany's approximately 25 million PCs has been checked.

Part of the problem is related to language, says Feilder. Much of the information about year 2000, particularly what's on the Internet, is in English, he points out.

Another factor is that other countries are often suspicious of the latest U.S. hype. "They have been led time and time again with false promises, puffery," he says.

Problems will build

Then what will happen on January 1, 2000?

Things won't come to a standstill, but problems will accumulate over time if they are not resolved, Feilder says.

"The data in computers becomes more and more corrupt as you move forward. Computers won't stop working. It will start off as a few annoying glitches, and that level of inconvenience will increase," he says. "By the end of January companies will start to see strange anomalies with their data." Invoicing systems, computerized employee payment systems, and systems related to customers and suppliers will be particularly vulnerable.

Just as it is said that there are no computer errors, only human errors that computers are blamed for, companies will use the year 2000 problem as an excuse for all sorts of woes, Feilder says.

For this reason, he expects Greenwich Mean Time will do even more business in 2000 than it did this year.

His Check 2000 product, which evaluates software's Y2K compliancy, is also sold by Novell and Compaq. Microsoft has posted some of Feilder's research on its Web site.

Greenwich Mean Time will remain focused on desktop management, long after the year 2000 problems are resolved, Feilder says.

"Year 2000 is actually not the problem. It's just a symptom," he says. "The problem is that we have not controlled our desktop environment. If we had done so, the year 2000 problem would be almost negligible at the desktop."