Experts: Sky may not be falling, but prepare for a storm

Televisions, video recorders, microwaves and other household appliances may pose problems for some consumers

By Carol Clark
CNN Interactive

(CNN) -- When someone in Liza Christian's rural Oregon community gave her a book called "Time Bomb 2000," she carried it around for weeks before reading it.

"I thought, 'This is too grim; Stephen King could have written it,'" Christian recalled. "I really didn't want to deal with it. It just seemed too bizarre."

But by the time she finished the book about the year 2000 computer problem, also known as the Y2K bug, Christian decided it was important to learn more. In May 1998, she helped start one of the nation's first grass-roots organization's for Y2K preparedness -- the Rogue Valley Y2K Task Force.

Christian described the group as "mainstream" but said she has been exposed to other theories about the Y2K problem, including the warnings of some religious groups that it heralds the biblical Armageddon.

"It's possible they could be right," Christian said, "but I'm a fairly positive person and I don't want to just throw up my hands and give in to the gloom and doom. I want to do what I can."

Christian's experience has been mirrored throughout the United States during the past several months as government agencies, businesses and communities have started to tackle the Y2K issue in earnest.

In the early 1990s, computer consultants began sounding the alarm that many older computers were programmed -- and much of their software was written -- to recognize only the final two digits of a year. Some said the problem would cause widespread chaos in power, transportation, communications and other vital systems as the year 2000 began.

Expecting an increased demand for hard currency, the U.S. government plans to print extra cash

No one can predict exactly what will happen when computer systems attempt to roll over to January 1, 2000.

But after a massive effort by the U.S. government and some businesses to fix the problem, many experts are now saying that any difficulties at the beginning of the new year will likely be short-lived in the United States.

"I was predicting a catastrophe up until about six or seven months ago," said Richard Bergeon, a Seattle-based business consultant.

Bergeon has specialized in Y2K management problems since 1992 and co-authored the book "Countdown Y2K: Business Survival Plan for the Year 2000" with Peter de Jager, a computer consultant whom The New York Times describes as "the Paul Revere for the year 2000 computer crisis."

"Many companies, even major companies, had done little or next to nothing about the problem before the beginning of 1997," Bergeon said. "Even at the beginning of 1998, many had done nothing but take major inventories. But near the middle of last year, not only was the awareness high, people started doing something about it -- including the federal government."

"The good news is that talk of the death of civilization, to borrow from Mark Twain, has been greatly exaggerated," according to a recent report by the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.

GartnerGroup, a consulting firm, estimates that the Y2K problem will cost the world $1 trillion to $2 trillion, as much as $300 for every man, woman and child on the planet.

"The bad news," the report added, "is that the committee's research has concluded that the Y2K problem is very real and that Y2K risk management efforts must be increased to avert serious disruptions."

The report compared Y2K to a winter storm and said people should prepare accordingly.

"We don't have winter storms in California, so we're telling people in Los Angeles to prepare as they would for an earthquake, by getting together several days to a few weeks worth of supplies," said Frank Martinez, executive director of the city's Year 2000 Project Office.

"Our main message is that you should do that preparation today," he added.

GartnerGroup, a consulting firm, estimates that Venezuela and Saudi Arabia (two of the largest exporters of oil to the United States) are 12 to 18 months behind the United States in their Y2K-compliance efforts.

Martinez also recommends that people make copies of their financial records and check with manufacturers of any advanced electronics they own -- such as security and fire alarm systems -- to ensure they do not have embedded chips that do not meet Y2K compliance.

Martinez said interruptions in public services are possible, but that they should be "relatively minor ... sporadic and of relatively short duration."

He added: "No one can predict with certainty what will happen. We live in a very complex society technologically and there's too much reliance on systems that we can't control."

"We'll see everything from ... nuisances -- like my calls going to your phone -- to serious business stoppages," said Anthony Paoni, a professor of information technology at Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management.

Airlines and the Federal Aviation Administration say their systems will be Y2K-compliant

Paoni said most major companies will likely have their systems fixed in time but that small- to medium-sized companies are lagging. The interdependence of systems means that a few stragglers could disrupt the whole, since large companies are usually networked with smaller ones, he said.

"The best case for a [non-Y2K compliant] company is that its computer system stops on January 1," he said. "The worst case is that it keeps running and it begins to corrupt the data. Now that's a big problem."

Paoni said he was confident the U.S. government would fix "all critical systems" by 2000.

The Y2K bug isn't isolated to the United States. Experts say the entire world will be affected and that most countries are much further behind than the United States in dealing with it.

The U.S. Senate report said the computer glitch could cause civil unrest in poor countries, undermine economic growth in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and disrupt global trade in oil and other vital commodities.

The Y2K bug is a result of programmers using only two digits rather than four to represent the years -- for example, 99 instead of 1999. They did it to save what was then precious memory space. Here's a comparison of how the cost of a megabyte of RAM has changed over the years: 1970 -- $3,200,000 1980 -- $64,000 1990 -- $120 1995 -- $30 1997 -- $5 1998 -- $1

While the report cited a low probability of an accidental nuclear weapons launch, it added that missile systems and high-tech weapons in other countries could malfunction. It also raised the concern that terrorists might strike, to take advantage of any confusion that might occur due to the Y2K bug.

Despite these dangerous hurdles, many see silver linings in the Y2K crisis.

While the techies gloat over their growing world influence, Liza Christian, the Oregon community organizer, said the Y2K crisis strengthened her bonds with her neighbors.

"Y2K shines a huge spotlight on the fact that, as integrated as we are to technology, we have become unintegrated to each other," Christian said.

"The view in our community has shifted toward getting to know one another and recognizing we really do need each other. Technology has created a veil in some regards," she said, "and this crisis has lifted it."

Note: Pages will open in a new browser window

External sites are not endorsed by CNN Interactive.