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Gearing up for the gold rush
'Nobody wins if the public freaks out'March 23, 1999
By John Christensen (CNN) -- In 1981, a 12-year-old boy named Patrick Bossert helped create a guidebook for the millions stumped by a plastic puzzle known as Rubik's Cube. With the year 2000 looming, Bossert has turned his attention to a puzzle of far greater consequence -- the "millennium bug." Bossert and others at WSP Business Technology in Britain have created a device that they say detects whether microchips will fail when 1999 becomes 2000. Their Delta-T probe is being tested by major British firms, and WSP appears to be positioned to profit from the end-of-the-millennium gold rush.
Others who are also well-placed to cash in on the furor include companies making and selling dehydrated foods, generators, wood stoves and propane tanks; survivalist seminar leaders; entrepreneurs and real estate agents hawking rural retreats; gun manufacturers and sellers; and those with Web sites offering links to books, videotapes and gear on surviving Y2K. Topping the list, however, are those in the computer industry.
New labels, old products"There are two types of companies who are profiting," says Ted Ulusoy, president of EDPS Inc., a consulting firm. "One is the hardware and software vendors who are selling updated versions because they are new and compliant. "And there are some who are simply sticking a label on their products as a marketing trick, even though their products are already compliant. "The other bonanza is in consulting. My company didn't exist nine years ago. But three or four years ago, I started talking to people at high levels about what they were planning to do, and they said, 'What about it?' Now there are lots of new companies and lots of previously existing companies providing Y2K services." A source in the consulting business who asked not to be identified says not every consultant is honest. Rather than offering a simple solution, the source says, some consultants "may have [companies] use 10 or 20 people for six to nine months and charge them millions of dollars a month. ... It just depends on the company and on their professional ethics." The silver liningThere is a lot of money to be made in Y2K remediation. Scientific American reports that the Internal Revenue Service's tab for Y2K compliance is a tidy $1 billion. Citicorp is expected to spend $650 million, AT&T $500 million and CIBC bank in Canada -- which has 1,000 people working on the problem -- $120 million. Ulusoy estimates remediation costs at between $300 billion and $600 billion in North America and speculates that several hundred billion dollars more will be spent recovering from Y2K problems -- and that doesn't account for legal costs. Employing lawyers and paying damages for Y2K incidents, says Ulusoy, have been estimated at $1 trillion. "But I've heard some estimates around $3 trillion," he says.
"The silver lining is that for many organizations this is the first time they've taken a hard look at their information systems," says Jack Gribben, communications director for the U.S. President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. "What they have, what is a priority, whether they need what they've got, all that. It's a good opportunity for them to do an inventory." "It's an opportunity to invest in technology that will have an impact in the long run," says Ulusoy. "This forces them to modernize, and they will have the experience of handling the Y2K project, which is a large undertaking. Those who have done a good job will survive the Y2K problem and have a competitive advantage in the future." 'Nobody knows what's going to happen'But Gribben points out that spending money on the Y2K problem also may divert money from other projects. "For some companies, the issue is staying operational. It's spending money not necessarily to upgrade systems but to maintain a level playing field, and it may delay other projects on the information technology side. You may be spending money to stay in business, but not necessarily upgrading." Ulusoy says companies that have the most to lose if things break down -- the financial industry, for example -- are the ones who have been most active in addressing the Y2K issue.
"Nobody knows what's going to happen," says Ulusoy. "But my guess is that everything will happen, but not one thing will happen everywhere." One of the most worrisome questions is to what extent Y2K will bring out the best and worst in human behavior. "Nobody wins if the public freaks out," Cathy Hotka told The New York Times. Hotka is an information technology specialist for the National Retail Federation in Washington. "If the public reacts badly, you could take a potentially minor situation and make it a nightmare." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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